Nor’easter model shift: how likely is a near-hurricane impact now?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

European model run is in now, and it has some alarming intensity trends which suggest this Nor'Easter could approach Hurricane force sustained winds with even higher gusts. It has the storm hang around for 4.5 days due to weaker steering too. This last part seems unlikely, because there's always something steering this far north.

[Jersey2]

Haven't heard anything about it. Nor’easters are usually winter storms. Snow and ice. Nor’easters come over land. Hurricanes get their power from warm waters and lose most of their power once over land.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

This will come right into Jersey Shore and Long Island and cause serious tree damage in the area. FOX news has been reporting on the possibility all day now, but It hasn't quite formed yet. It should form in the next 24 hours according to models.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

What's concerning to me is the vertical wind shear profile which is consistently showing up in the modeling. There are indicators of winds aloft in the 75knots to as much as 130knots range, which indidcates TORNADOES could be possible.

I realize this isn't a traditional nor'Easter, but it's supposed to be cold core anyway by the time it gets to the New England and Jersey Shore regions respectively, which is a bit strange. No snow in the forecast, as it's too hot and too early for that.

[Jersey2]

49 F in NY upcoming. Small bit of snow in the midwest. Weird storm. I don’t watch Fox anymore. None of them anymore as they are hype and fake news.

www.foxnews.com/.../big-storm-system-develop-central-us-moving-east

[Jersey2]

I linked an old article. Here is an assessment by AI:

Expected impacts
• Rain: 1–3 inches widespread along the I-95 corridor and coast; locally 4–6 inches possible on eastern Long Island, parts of Rhode Island, and coastal Massachusetts. Some inland/urban flooding is possible. nbcnews. com

• Winds: Gusts of 40–55+ mph common along the coast from New Jersey through southern New England; higher gusts (potentially 60 mph or more) possible on eastern Long Island, Cape Cod, and southeastern Massachusetts. Wind advisories and some high-wind warnings are in effect. Power outages and downed trees/limbs are likely. weather. com

• Coastal flooding and surf: Moderate to major flooding in vulnerable low-lying areas, especially during high tides (amplified by a full moon). 1–4 feet of inundation possible in spots. Waves of 10–18+ feet (higher offshore) will cause beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Coastal flood warnings cover parts of New Jersey, New York (including Long Island and NYC waterfront), Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. washingtonpost. com

Hardest-hit areas are expected to be the Jersey Shore, Long Island, NYC metro waterfront, and coastal New England (Boston, Cape Cod, etc.). Impacts began Friday and should peak Saturday, with lingering rain, wind, and tidal flooding into Sunday or Monday. nbcnewyork. com
Disruptions

New York and New Jersey have issued states of emergency for some coastal counties. Airlines have waived change fees for Northeast flights this weekend, Amtrak has warned of possible delays, and some large events (including Ed Sheeran concerts near Boston and the Global Citizen Festival in NYC) have been canceled. Check local forecasts, high-tide times, and travel status before heading out. reuters. com

This is a typical early-season nor’easter driven by a clash of air masses and the still-warm Atlantic waters. Separate tropical systems (Fay and Gonzalo) are in the open Atlantic and are not a threat to the Northeast.

[strateguy632]

they better evacuate all those cities. if not, people will die this time. 40 mph is far from hurricane but it will be deadly.

[Anonymous]

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