What's the likelyhood a geomagnetic storm sparks nuclear exchange?

[lightbulb27]

Geomagnetic storms are possible... a bad one occurred in 1859, the Carrington Event. New ones are anticipated soon. Question is if it will hit earth.

https://www.livescience.com/space/the-sun/solar-maximum-could-hit-us-harder-and-sooner-than-we-thought-how-dangerous-will-the-suns-chaotic-peak-be

Now imagine communications systems, satellites... go off line. What are the rules for submarines and other systems? Would someone make a bad call?

I sue hope our governments have good communications. Whomever is running for office, make sure they understand their job is to avoid getting us killed. That's priority #1.

Updates

+1 y

10:00 plus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfvoBlDUrPU&t=260s

[Telekinetic-Potato]

I'm not sure, but I'm pretty sure that pretty early on there were international laws and agreements made about how to handle situations like this (sorta)

I think the rule is that the people with the physical ability to launch the nuke must receive orders from a distant authority of some kind.

Meaning if the communications go down, there is no way to launch the nuke. For example in the US (again, not totally sure I'm remembering this correctly) there are a few bases we launch nukes from and they have drills all the time simulating the call to launch.

There's no indication it's just a drill so they have to assume it's the real deal every time. The process involves multiple people turning keys in a correct fashion in order to partially arm the bomb, everything gets ready and then a final code from outside the base is sent which basically is the command to actually launch the nuke.

And I think all the different locations and scenarios are different flavors of the same process.

In short, it would require communication to happen in the first place so it's tough to imagine that senerio actually happening.

Even though since around 2012 we've been shielding our bases from these kind of issues, we probably do have the capability to communicate well enough to launch a nuke even under such circumstances.

[Agape93]

Not likely but it is inevitable. It will happen eventually.

[Anonymous]

Well, that would suck, lol.