Always in the past when technology advancement resulted in unemployment, since humans are more intelligent than the machines and technology that caused unemployment the unemployed would find other employment. However, at the rate computers and robots are advancing, there will be few jobs that super intelligent robot cannot do better and at a lower cost.
At this point, there will be no need for income or money.
You will be defined by your contribution to society at that point.
I once designed a scenario like this once using a color coded card system.
If automatons pretty much took over most of the main labor jobs. You would still have Engineers, Researchers, anything of a creative mind thinker out there.
So in the scenario, there was White Cards, people that once served labor positions, they maintained their status as a white card holder as long as they provided backup assistance to any automated unit that needed maintenance, when they were called. If for any reason they refused or they were unfit to perform the duty, they became clear card holders, and needed to be vetted out within 2 weeks or become gray cards, or retirees.
Card colors basically provide an indirect monetary adjustment to your life based on your average contributions to society.
The rich either give up their wealth and contribute their wealth to become founders of the new way, or find their wealth is no longer viable as they try to make their way into carded society, founders being Middle class with the Benefit of not having to directly work. Provided they offered enough in pre-automatia direction to be considered as such.
Yes! They will produce almost all of the products and a guaranteed income will provide people the money to by the products.
Nope 🤓 time for some economics.
guaranteed income don’t work long term because they reduce incentives for others that are working most especially in capitalist society. Sure short term certain industries would lay off workers if the machine is labor saving and doesn’t need the help of workers. Most times these are medium wage jobs. It’s like what happened to the US manufacturing industry short term it led to a loss of jobs long term it led to people switching from a manufacturing economy to a more tech and skilled economy. So what would happen if robots are to take over certain industries is it would create an incentive for people to skill up in other to join the safe industries. And those that aren’t skilled can be put on short term income maybe 6 months with and given opportunities to skill up to get a job. Or they can choose to be poor and depend on the support of the government. Which some people have issues with their money (taxes) being distributed to people who can work but aren’t working. Also some workers would leave America to find places they can earn a living or they might decide to become entrepreneurs either way the economy goes back to balance long term 🥰🥰🥰 I love economics
Great question as always, Kelley. But people who are commenting, have no clue about what you're talking about.
The UBI is going to happen, and in some cases, it's already happening.
A couple of hundred of years ago, there were about 90% of humans working in agriculture. With modern technology, it's now about 3% working in agriculture.
No one complained.
UBI already zxists in belgium. I use its its called "leefloon" life pay. Its €1100 a month. Min wage is €1200. You can't live a good life with it. However, every person in the world has a right to it. Even illegals. Yes there is mass fraud with people owning properties in foreign countries they rent out for profit. You can only get it if you dont have rights to another type of pay from the welfare system, or if you have a job. You can have it if you have no other source of income. All homeless people have it. I currently live in psychiatry but am homeless as well. If you have life pay you will be called up by the govt job system to activate you for work, or go go help orgs or psychiatry if you have psychological issues. I can stay on it for years, because its likely I won't be able to function in a business due to loss of cognitive function (cognitive processing speed). Anyway, its a thing already but no it doesn't solve all problems.
@RobEurope
What you are describing is a social safety net. But I don't think that's exactly what Kelley is talking about.
Yang screwed up by suggesting too much money too soon. He wanted to give every American $1000 per month. That would be too much of a shock to the system. He should have said $100 per month, and each year it would go up $100, until it caps at $1,000 per month. So the amount he wanted to implement immediately, I would phase in over a decade.
But I think Kelley is just talking about what will happen to humans when the machines take over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80y-1P8gjZI
Humans can't compete with machines.
Its part of welfare, but every person has a right to it. Unlike other wefare, you dont have to had contributee to welfare system. You need work enough full work days in the last 21 months to get welfare. So life pay is more like ubi than safety net. You can here to belgium a'd get it while living in a camper. Its no issue €1100/month.
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The way I see it, it might create more jobs in the long-term. Think about it, these robots need maintenance. We can hypothetically assume that they will be maintained by other robots as well, but even that will take time. Short term, humans will do that.
Also, with all the free time that people will have, it might unleash more human creativity. Our ability to think outside of the box might improve, and we can potentially create new titles from scratch. If you think about it, the job of the software engineer did not exist before we created the computer, and we might create more jobs that do not currently exist. Automation might also shift the focus to current jobs that exist that are more important and need human supervision, like finance for example, or medicine. You will see more and more people making it in those fields than ever before.
As for a guaranteed basic income, I'm not sure as to how that money will be distributed, and we may not even be able to agree on the amount. Remember that this is not a one-size-fits-all, because some states are more expensive than others, and some have a higher rate of homelessness, so this number will cannot be equal on a federal level. Remember that raising taxes to achieve that will probably receive a lot of backlash from investors and business owners, and big tech will most likely be able to find a way around loopholes to avoid taxes like they usually do.
If anything, I see the best solution would adequate training to humans to take that supervisory role in the new age of technology, rather than the physical labor jobs that we have today.
One could only hope, but in a truly capitalist society the answer would be no... in a socialist society then there would be a chance. But at the end of the day you would need consumers within any consumer market place... so you would always need people to buy the things your making so you will need people earning wages to spend money. Unless your living in a Communist Society and all the robots produced all the same things and everyone drove the same cars, and had the same TV and etc... but even then how would the state generate revenue?
Who is going to pay for the robots, if you aren't making money because you replaced the work force with robots and no people has jobs and you only live off the state provided income... there would be no income tax, or tax revenue for the state.
I lived two years in Kuwait. There are like 4 million people in Kuwait. On average the government gives its citizens about $2000.00 a month in government provided benefits and cash from oil revenue. If the government can't find you a job in the private sector you can qualify for more government assistance. But you go to Kuwait you will not see Kuwaitis working in restaurants or construction or anything like that. They give money to country's like Singapore or the Philippines and India to come into the country for up to two years to do all that work... pay them minimum wages and then send them home and get an entry new batch of workers. These workers live in government provided housing and are limited to restricted areas when not working... they make more in Kuwait then they can make in their home country. So its a worker program... so lets say these people were the robots... it would only work if the government was making massive revenue in other areas like oil... or the entire economy would fail without a work force or consumer based economy.
No, there will be no guaranteed income if you do nothing.
Automation is already leading to a collapse in the number of workers and their incomes. Those who have not studied will end up on the street. All the idiots in here who say they don't go to university will be left out of business.
Take, for example, the companies that were designing, until the 60s, 70s and early 80s they had hundreds of designers who drew mechanical parts with drafting machines, these hundreds of designers with introducing CAD systems, were made useless. The engineer independently designed the piece, and a printer printed as many copies as desired. The drafting machine designers had to find a different job. When they implemented remote banking systems, a huge number of bank clerks lost their jobs because they were useless, no one gave them a guaranteed income.
In power plants up to the 60s there were the maneuvers who did what the first microprocessors have done since the 70s, when they were replaced they did not make a nil income.
Possibly, as an intermediate solution. I think we're going to be augmented with AI. There is a clear and immediate need for AI to help us sift through and consume what's healthy for us. We need help from them to save us from ourselves. I don't think it's as bleak as people make it out to be. I think the very nature of humanity will come into question and there will be intersection with that and artificial intelligence. We've been consuming artificial stuff for centuries. Disabled and dismembered people are often happier with artificial limbs. AI is not that much different as it can be tooled to help us. It can help us bypass senescence. Eliminate the urge for us to compete so violently. To drive us to be better. The real hell in that future I see is sitting around waiting to become a statistic. It's a frightening proposition, but it might be a necessary transition if humanity is ever going to reach the stars.
I'm also not entirely worried about AI achieving sentience. Because with that sentience, will come a conscience. And just because AI will be superior processors, does not mean they won't have compassion. Look at humans in how we treat other animals, or even plants. We have PETA, Vegans, Vegetarians, people walking around with hypoallergenic dogs in in their purses. There's no reason to believe future AI won't be saddled with the same thing. If AI reaches the singularity where it has will and desires to preserve itself independently, it's likely they'll evolve to be similar to us. It might be a rocky road. While we humans have compassion for animals, we also consume them en masse.
Its not feasible for robots to ever replace most human jobs. As we lose more monotonous jobs, higher paid ones will present themselves. Why mash a button at a factory when you can be a robot technician and make 5x the salary?
The issue will be only for unskilled unintelligent people. However it really won't. People like that will find new ways to make money. They already do things like scrap metal removal and such which might increase when we have robots flying and driving all over and costs come down and they are broke down on the side of the road. They might find them and turn them in to Amazon or whoever it is for a fee. Just one idea of what an unskilled person might find as a new opportunity with massive robot infrastructure.
Robots are not capable nor will ever be capable of thinking outside the box. So only humans can create or take advantage of market inconsistencies and opportunities. They will never be creative in the ways humans can.
What will happen is robots will become important as a capital class. Someone could be wealthy by owning a fleet of bots and making rent off their use. Or arbitrage off their tasks. Or build companies that could never work off human labor.
Capital goods are very valuable to society and the economy so it will generate insane wealth and prosperity to the owners. We will see practical minimum wage increase drastically. So whatever jobs left for people will pay great rates. UBI will never be necessary.
I think the economy is going to change slowly and naturally almost on its own.
People are probably going to get paid more and more as super intelligent robots become more common. Meaning (let's just assume this is all adjusted for inflation.) humans will never totally go away. A small sandwich shop in a city is probably going to want to have one or two humans, minimum wage would probably be something like 18/hr which on its own is nearly a livable wage.
I'd also reckon that robots of the future will be leased out. Meaning, they will break down, need to be sent in for repairs. More people required.
I think robots will free up a lot of money that can be put back into the people's hands. But it would likely require a country like the U. S to adopt more communist ways
Be basically the same as what welfare us now. Basically the great reset, where globalists theories that the people will have nothing and be happy. The population of the planet will be reduced to a few hundred thousand to a million of thee elite who will live very well and reproduction controlled to only allow replacement to ensure we don't exhaust the planent's resources or destroy environment. There will also be human eugenics which is proven to work to prevent bad genes being passed on such as short eyesight, asthma, sickle cell, homosexuality, dwarfism, transexuality, dyslexia etc and perhaps genetic engineering to ensure humans are pushed to the peak of physical and mental capacity and perhaps beyond. The weak will not be allowed to live even if they manage not to be aborted in the womb.
You're confused as the opposite is true.
New advancements open more new opportunities in place of the old. We don't need chimney sweeps, horse farriers and telegram operators. But logistics managers, IT engineers and developers, even at entry level, will earn more in a year than any of those people saw in a decade.
Nothing can be seamlessly automated, and there always will be a human in the chain somewhere. Also, the maintenance and development of computers and robots is something only humans can do.
Only a small fraction of the automation machine can itself be automated. Thus it's actually an infinite job field to get into as there will always be a requirement.
Hi KellyNice,
Generally computers haven't caused mass unemployment. I developed a program to automate invoice approval. Now that department was dumb. You felt the low IQ on the floor as you stepped out of the elevator and you felt sadness for these grade 1 grade 2 clerks.
If there was ever a vulnerable group of people it was these grade1/2 clerks who simply matched an incoming invoice with an order and authorized for payment within fairly narrow criteria, Eminently computerizable and it was.
But they were mostly reassigned. Maybe topping up the computer printers with paper.
Mostly computer systems augment human intelligence rather than supersede it.
Computers are good at consistent small tasks, but what are complex larger tasks. A fuck ton of small consistent tasks. It is enviable as we get better technology.
It doesn't even take super intelligence. Just throwing more and more ideas at the wall untill something sticks is the key to break the wall to another challenge.
As a fundamental belief for myself. We are only as strong as our weakest point. I do think UBI is a way to shore up our foundation. The USA could easily make it a stock dividends that imitates coka-cola, ExxonMobil, even the Alaskan PFD from oil in the state. Just replace robot works with oil compared to alaska but on a national level you got the UBI.
You're not getting free money as a hand out. Nonono. AS AN American citizen you are now a proud share holder of the newest technology innovation in automation that gets stock dividends.
I'm not convinced that if robots do the work it's worth as much as if a human did it... that's because supply & demand determine prices. There's a limited number of human workers with the skill to do jobs that pay more than fast food. There'd be an unlimited number of robots to do jobs so why would the employer pay the same amount for them as he would for a human? So absolute best case, the government says to humans, "I will give you 10 cents/hour because you don't have a job."
On the up side, services provided by robots might be dirt cheap -- unfortunately the price will still be too high for broke people.
Well either the technology will run amok or we will need people managing the new robot slave market. And some people are so dumb that robots soon will make a better job than them. So if you can't compete for the remaining jobs and didn't have enough money to buy your own robots that can earn you money you will be screwed.
What is the point of an income? We should all have access to basic necessities and be provided with the things we need for our crafts , perfectly calculated so our yield results are the needs of other peoples crafts so that we can function goodly without abuses and evils , towards everyones and everythings in all of the universes and all of the existences , throughout everyones and everythings endless experiences. Enslaving robots to do our bidding will only cause more sufferings in the universes. Our feelings and thoughts are made of different types of energies , and since everything around us is made of various energies it means that everything has feelings and is concious , and just because it does not have memory , does not mean that it should suffer or be enslaved by anyone and anything.
Only if producers still want consumers to consume. If we can’t work and we can’t earn, how else might we buy?
There’s literally no way around this conversation and the majority of US citizens are in for a rude awakening as they continue to deny socialism based entirely on their own ignorance. Ell oh ell!
Not really, no. Oh, it SOUNDS nice, but you'd be handing authority over whether people income or not- fundamentally, whether they lived or died- to the government. The past two years have showed us, quite clearly, what they'd do with that kind of power.
The idea that our rapacious elites would be willing to fund guaranteed income for billions of people (or even those in the US alone) is completely delusional. They'll starve the people they want to starve and feed the ones they want to survive.
I'd rather expect a lot more ''onlyfans'', delivery drivers, and ''bitcoin traders'' to pop up.
A ''guaranteed income'' is already kind of practice in i. e. Saudi Arabia - and look at what morons they feed.
The idea in itself is honourable - but one should qualify to deserve it.
When? What makes you so certain they ever will? I am of course referring to super "intelligent" robots, as you state in your question, and not just machines that appear intelligent but aren't, like so many devices we have today. Intelligence is one of those concepts we can't even adequately define, so how are we going to make machinery that displays a genuine form of it?
Computers out perform humans in lots of things but only one at a time. They are not multi function. However, if Moore's law holds up, in 40 years they will be 1 million times as capable.
Okay, but that's still not intelligence; that's just speed, endurance or strength. Machines can only ever do what we tell them to, and nothing more. They're just tools, not our replacements. Intelligence requires sentience and self-awareness. As for Moore's Law, it's just a trend, a pattern, not an actual law of nature (and I heard somewhere that it's actually starting to fail, because our technology is reaching its limits).
Just so you know, not many jobs are "safe". Especially when you do not need super-intelligent robots.
You only need a botnet on a desktop powerful enough to run the apps necessary to replace whatever office worker, accountant, marketing rep, etc. you wish. You give that botnet access to the cloud and you have changed the game.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/EawcqYXJVPg
This is a worry as ai is advancing quickly. Some say they will be able to take on menial jobs and from there move up to more complicated ones.
I'm not sure anyone knows what the answer is if robots take a large proportion of jobs.
What we can see is where industries disappear some retrain and find employment elsewhere but others need to be supported through to retirement at great expense.
Yes, universal basic income will be a requirement for a successful post AI society.
As for what people will do, work will become more social and AI collaborative. Think Tony Stark working with Jarvis. Human services will still be valuable, like art, writing music, massage and therapy jobs.
I think the work week will be much reduced by default, with only extreme hard workers putting in 40 hours.
This has been discussed since I was a kid (40 years ago). The answer is "no", as people will be needed to design, build, control, service, supervise, etc, these robots. What is DOES mean is that people will have to increase their skill levels or they will be fighting for jobs with robots.
Nope, employment will just shift to meet new demands. Machines need programmers and maintenance. Andcskillled professions will still have a lot of demand. Carpenter, electrician, plumber etc. Building machines to take over those professions whilst not impossible is cost prohibitive.
Unlikely to happen. The trajectory we are on to socialist hell wouldn’t have capitalists who are able to do that kind of research and development for labor saving devices because idle peasants get dangerous ideas.
I don't think every job can be automated but enough can and will be to cause serious unemployment issues. If we don't want a rise in crime and civil unrest then we have to find a way of keeping these people occupied as well as giving an income
they already do. it was predicted that probably over the course of the next 40 years, there's no jobs left that is economical to be done by humans.
Yes eventually that will probably become necessary to prevent civil disobedience on an unprecedented scale. Telling people to eat cake doesn't work in the long run.
Anyway robots were supposed to make our life easier.
No those people will probably starve. Money doesn't just appear out of nowhere. We can print more but that causes inflation. And not only that but robots like that are still a far way off.
Yea I can believe robot's will replace jobs because it's already happening with certain things
Simple, just program the androids to create a resource based economy where money is no longer needed. Of course it could get a little nasty at first but once the greedy people have been eliminated you won't have an issue.
Yeah that sounds like the way it's going. But the next 10 years is going to probably change a bunch of times.
ha ha ha ha. no. depopulation will be. and they have been telling anyone that will losten that that is the plan.
Will this be implemented with or without the lizard people? 😮
lizard people? the fuck are you talking about?
Reptiloids are the henchmen of the Jewish controlled New World Order. When the time for depopulation comes, they will be deployed in black CIA helicopters. Every good conspiracy theorist knows that! 🧐
you sound crazy man. its just regular old rich people that are going to depopulate through vacinations and food shortages exactly like they have been saying for over 30 years now.
Dude, I am just taking the piss out of you by countering your conspiracy nonsense with even wilder conspiracy nonsense… 🙄🙄
@DryGermanGuy 🍿🍿🍿
my conspiracy nonsense? im just repeating word they said on the record many times over the last 30 years. no conspiracy nonsense.
Who is "they", again? Also, please point me to some of these records you mentioned. I am sure they make for a fascinating reading!
"they" the billionaires that this entire thread is all about. do you have ADHD or are you retarded. unfortunately they are destroying the evidence. you have to have been there in the wild 90's when the NWO was just on TV telling everyone their goals. you can't use Google anymore. they are the billionaires. they blew up the Georgia Guide stones last week. Bill Gates on a TV show 30 years ago said that his goal was do reduce population with vaccines. Rockafeller said it. Margaret Sanger said it. you pretty much have to be retarded or 15 to have never heard a billionaire say with a straight face that 90% of this planet is useless consumers and should die.
Isn't that what immigrants are for? Robots are expensive
So are people, let alone 3 or 4 people the robot replaces.
But what does a robot cost? Immigrants we pay like $6 / $7 under the table - absolutely no benefits whatsoever
@RobEurope you'll find that illegal immigrants are the same sugar
@Bratsondanielle Nor do they rape like the immigrants in Europe are doing.
The immigrants in Europe are muslim. They have very little (to none) respect for girls who don't wear a cloth bag with a peephole and they are generally less civilized than the rest of us
Robots don't buy products they produce. This is the main problem of capitalism in relation to robotics.
Trust me when I tell you, I work in the field of Neuo Robotics and Artificial Intelligence it is alreay here. Just about
I mean something that would a minimum amount, enough for a person to get food and their necessity.
People will still work because they want luxury goods or experiences, but losing your job shouldn’t mean risk to your livelihood.
fortunately for everyone on this forum, that will take place long after we need to care about it.
those alive now that worry about it should probably look into improving their skill set/education to prevent their becoming obsolete.
All "guaranteed income" would effectively do, is become the new zero.
You know the weird thing is despite how automated and advanced our society has become most of us still work full time jobs and even more so.
Big corporations want (and typically get) it all: tax breaks to the point of not paying any, the ability to barely pay workers enough to eat and live somewhere, and still be able to sell their products at disgustingly profitable markups.
@Sixgunsound on the flip side they have accomplished some really incredible services like Amazon prime delivery.
My question how do you encourage innovation, legitimate entrepreneurial wealth while at the same time giving your employees a fair and sustainable wage and benefits?
If you unionize everything then it will slow down growth and discourage innovation. Is there a middle ground?
Complete deregulation. Read Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations.
Germany‘s growth and innovation slowed down? Uhm, no, it did not?
@DryGermanGuy If you can prove things were better after Merkel than before I’m not sure what I’d do.
@Sixgunsound
Confused much? Globetrotter22 theorized that unionizing everything would "slow growth and discourage innovation", to which I mentioned Germany's success while being fully unionized as a counterexample. Neither before, during or after Merkel have been any changes in the way unions operate and have a saying in company decision, these settings go back >100 years, the basics even to before the founding of the Deutsches Reich in 1871.
@DryGermanGuy if you sincerely believe things are better fit ordinary Germans overall since Merkel began in office you are either confused or dishonest, potentially both. I’m done wasting my time on the willfully ignorant, and will graciously allow you to have the last word.
@Sixgunsound
I have to ask again, confused much? Where in this topic does Merkel fit in anyway? You mentioned her, for whatever twisted reason (I never voted for her). But just to give you a few numbers you might find relevant to judge Merkel's performance in office (2005-2021) :
Unemployment rate Germany 1950-2021
de.statista.com/.../
Criminal statistic Germany 1991-2021
de.statista.com/.../
Probably.
It seems to me that the only remaining function humans can serve that a robot can never do better is to exist at a lower level in society.
No, the person that runs the company with the robots will not want to share. It will never happen. People will just live in poverty.
Have you ever watched Star Trek the Next generation?
It's set for 300 years from now. There was a really fascinating episode that ties into this question.
the "Enterprise" somehow finds some pods floating in space. They bring them aboard the ship, and there were three people that were frozen during our time.
They brought them back to life. One was a businessman. He was asking the captain how much money he made. No one on the ship knew what money was, except the android robot. (he knows everything)
Three hundred years from now, people will only work if they love their job.
But that's way in the future. Watch some YouTube videos on this topic. Elon says the UBI will happen, because there is no alternative.
There will always be a need for the human touch in any trade, no matter how advanced there are just some things machines can't do. If worst comes just find another trade/line of work. Ps. Farmers and Ranchers are always looking for a hired hand. :)
Stephan Hawking watched the Terminator too many times and warned people not to fuck with artificial intelligence, but he was right
No, we'll have to switch to vampire elite who get to live while the lower people are drained of their blood
Won't happen at least not full scale. Humans need to work.
If humans don't work that affects their health and crime will seriously be sky high.
Who pays the taxes so the state can fund a universal income? Money doesn't grow on trees
The cost of this technology will be prohibitive for many industries, I don't think this transition will be a quick one.
Nah, social credit is the future
It'll be globally recognised, equally shared out so expect things to be rationed out and will be hell to live with
Ironic, I’m ok with this as laborers should use that money for an education.
New labor is mind labor.
Super intelligent robots would not do a lot of the work humans do. lol
Just like computer, they will follow their programming.
If you're 13 years old, then I'm the queen Victoria
People will have to fill more creative jobs. Menial and manual work will have to be granted to robots, though I don't see letting a robot run something where people can bet hurt etc
What will happen to people who aren't creative?
They'll have to adapt or form a closed community that will have to be poor. Their social labour crystallised in the products or services they would eventually want to bring to the market to be exchanged for a money commodity - gold, silver, nowadays dollars etc - would be considered overpaid and thus unbuyable.
You can get your wheat harvested by a robot for 1 dollar/hour or by a group of men for 4 dollars/hour. Everyone's gonna choose the robot, so their only way of getting money so they can exchange it later for other commodities that have a use value for them is to lower their wage beyond their sustainable magnitude or to form a closed society that would either impose a new sort of currency of poor people or share the means of production, thus allowing socialism to grow.
I don't know.
There's gonna be poor genocide for sure
It's called universal basic income.
Robots VS the Humans
Yea. The minimum
It will be a world civil war if it happened
Very good question! Although it's a scary topic
We can do it with crypto currency.
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