Do Dems have a chance this Nov?

[OddBeMe]

Historically midterms aren’t nice to previous winners. But trumps kinda killing it for us… lol

Yes

No

Don’t know

[nightdrot]

The question is a bit oddly phrased. "Do the Dems have a chance?" Of course they do. However, this poll and recent headlines notwithstanding, based on the historical norms, recent shifts in the nature of the party coalitions and the unpopularity of the President (and the Vice-president) even in his/their own party, the odds are more against it than not.

To start, as a general historical rule, the party in the White House tends to lose seats in a mid-term election. If it is a second term President, the President's party will tend to be hit even harder. (Such second term mid-term elections are typically referred to as "six year itch" elections.)

Even this must be refined somewhat. The rule generally applies to the House of Representatives. The Senate is a bit more complicated in that only 1/3 of Senate seats are up for election in any given two year cycle. In any given of those years, the states up may lean one way or the other. For example, in 1984, President Reagan won the third largest popular vote total in history and the largest electoral vote to date - 49 of 50 states. Yet the Democrats actually picked up two Senate seats - though the GOP retained Senate control - because it so happened that the states up that year in the Senate tended more Democrat. Thus earning Reagan's otherwise gigantic win the name of the "lonely landslide."

In terms of the House, a recent ABC/Washington Post poll gave the GOP a generic 5 point lead. However, when the focus was on "swing districts" the GOP lead skyrocketed to an eye bulging 21 points. Suffice to say, while that margin seems a bit of an aberration, if it is even close, the Democrats will take a beating.

In terms of the Senate, the headlines have been that the Democrats have a better chance of retaining control. (The Senate is tied, (50/50) with the Vice-President casting a tie breaking vote to give the Democrats 51 seats.) However, that is perhaps overstated.

To start, referring to the poll above, independents tend not to turn out in mid-term elections. Such elections are base elections and so while the independents may be leaning a bit Democrat, they are not likely to come out in numbers sufficient to sway the outcome.

This then leaves the base voters for each party. Here the GOP holds an implicit advantage. Each base will come out to support or oppose the party in the White House. Suffice to say, the Republicans clearly do not care for Mr. Biden (or Ms. Harris.) The problem being that Democrat base voters don't really care for the President or Vice-President either, with a majority expressing support for having someone else lead the ticket in 2024.

Thus, the energy is on the GOP side. Democrats, to the degree that they are motivated, are largely opposed to Mr. Trump. The problem being that Mr. Trump is not on the ticket. Thus, the GOP base will be far more motivated - in opposition to Mr. Biden - than the Democrat base will be motivated to support Mr. Biden.

Also, it is worth adding that the polls are somewhat unreliable this cycle. The random samples in such polls are based on increasingly outdated models of the two parties. Such polls, for example, assume that blue collar voters are Democrats and upper middle class voters are Republican.

In fact, that is no longer true. The GOP is now the party of the working class - and increasingly Hispanic voters. The Democrats are now the party of the wealthy and whites.

CONT.

[nightdrot]

Put it all together and there is likely more of an edge for the GOP than the data prima facie suggests. To be sure, individual factors come into play.

For example, the GOP Senate candidate in Georgia is behind because, although African-American and a former football star, he has been dogged by past ethical issues. However, the GOP Governor - who is up for re-election - is leading by 6 points. So the question becomes, in a base election, how likely is it that GOP voters will split their ticket and vote for Democrats down ballot?

Answer: Not very likely. Thus, although the GOP Senate candidate - Herschel Walker - is behind by 5 points. The odds are he will do better on elections day. Whether he will do better enough to win is, admittedly, an open question.

Still put it all together and the GOP is likely doing better - certainly in the House and likely in the Senate - than immediate polling data suggests. Of course, much could happen between now and election day. However, based on the data to date, the edge - and historical averages - gives the GOP the edge.

[OddBeMe]

Agree there's more an edge to GOP just becasue of the low turnout in midtemr. But i guess i was alluding to massive fck ups from the right snatching defeat from victory.

[nightdrot]

Well, "the right" could mess it up. However, "f***-ups" notwithstanding, the historical norms are pretty clear. Besides, if that was your point, why didn't you ask, "Will the GOP/"right" f***-up the mid-term elections?"

They are sort of two different questions.

Anyhow, hope all is well.

[OddBeMe]

All is well. Seeing how there's more right wing political posters on Gag I thought going Dem would get more response.

Family doing well?

[nightdrot]

On your first point, I don't spend too much time worrying about how many of either side is posting on this site. If you are lucky, you get to have interesting discussions with people on both sides - as I do with you.

Trust me, I've worked in politics since the late 1980s and it is not worth your time keeping score. For me, the fun is making an argument and debating it, as well as reading the opinions of others whether I agree or disagree.

The only other - slightly snobbish, I admit - thing I would add is that you quickly learn that even the people with the best of intentions, don't often have a deep grasp of the philosophical and intellectual predicates to Western politics. It is no wonder, as I mentioned, that politics, particularly in the age of the Internet, quickly degenerates into mere sloganeering.

That makes it all the more satisfying when you meet here someone who is polite and civil and well spoken. Whatever the shortcomings, you end up with useful discussions, the rest you don't lose sleep over. Though the only time I hit the "Block" button is when they use vulgar language or degenerate into mere vituperation.

Beyond that, the family is fine - though I have three little ones who have been rarin' to "Trick or Treat" since, it seems, the day school started. Something in their little heads tells them school means Fall and Fall means Halloween. So it is taking all we've got to keep them from going to school every day as a vampire,. an angel and Superman - this year's three choices.

You want to talk politics...

[OddBeMe]

same as you, love the the debate.

[TroyDT2]

General polls are useless. Big cities tend to be 80% or more Democratic, so in a 50%-50% state the Republicans will win more House seats because Democrats win urban seats so overwhelmingly allowing Republicans to disproportionately win others seats by much closer margins. The GOP should easily win the House.

The Senate, on the other hand, will likely stay D because the GOP nominated several poor candidates.

[Anonymous]

Nope not at all. They have destroyed this country in under 2 years. The silent majority will come out again.

[OddBeMe]

actually not really...
www.factsarefirst.com/.../donald-trump

[DarkWinterNights]

Aside from being pro-abortion and anti-Trump, what are Democrats doing to make things better? They’ve had the house and tiebreaker in the senate for a year and a half.


Serious questions.. gas is back up to $5.89 where I live. Mortgage rates are up to 6%. Housing prices haven’t gone down. Crime is at its highest point in decades. My closest campground has been turned into a homeless camp. Nothing has been done about the border or the fentanyl crisis. My food bills are about twice as high as they were last year and I’ve completely cut eating out. Stocks have erased all of their gains YTD. Once profits slide, unemployment will start to increase. The ATF has decided to reverse earlier decisions leading to millions of gun owners potentially becoming felons next year.

[USLegionary]

They always had a chance but you can't believe the media as the function like propaganda for whatever side of the divide they stand. Basically when they tell us voters are tilting one way or the other or write a positive or negative outlook for a party they are trying to influence the voters and influence the result to wherever they have their allegiance

[TheBigWhistle]

For the sake of the country, I certainly hope so. Thanks pro-lifers. You came through when we needed you. Sure we'll figure out how to provide access to safe abortion for those that need them soon enough and in the meantime, we keep you guys from fucking up the country even more than Trump did during his rule as Grand Emperor.

[Agagagagaga]

Lol oh you 🤣 “Thanks pro-lifers! You came through for us!” Lol God you’re so fucking cheesy 🤣

WE’VE JUST GOTTA ABORT BABIES! WE GOTTA! 🤣
😆
😂

I’m all for abortion because I hate people and wish your mother had the good sense to flush you down the toilet, but man, there’s something sick about someone who cheerleads for someone’s sacrosanct right... to kill a baby. 😂

BUT WE GOTTA! We hAvE tO dOn’T yA sEe?

🤣

[TheBigWhistle]

@Agagagagaga Oh look. I triggered the braindead fucktard. That wasn't my primary purpose but it's a nice little bonus.

You're very existence is an argument to keep abortion legal. That and making it illegal for mothers to drink and do blow while pregnant.

[TheBigWhistle]

@Agagagagaga I'm done wasting my time endlessly responding to your stupid shit. Bye bye asshole.

[Agagagagaga]

What... it bothers you that we both agree on killing babies? I mean it’s women’s healthcare. Right? I support women. Don’t you? 🤣

[TheBigWhistle]

@Agagagagaga And you admit you hate people but I bet you don't hate all those gorgeous "sistas" that you tried to convince me are lining up to let you show them a good time. Sounds kike those huge dicked blacks guys they've had before can't satisfy them like you can.. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[ChefPapiChulo]

its a bot @TheBigWhistle no point trying to argue with something that isn't human.

[exitseven]

I live in a moonbat state and it looks like we may have a new Republican governor. I heard today that the Rasmussen polls said that among Americans 57% of people believe we are headed for a depression. Not a recession but a full blown 1929 style depression. The dems have to own this economy.

[Juxtapose]

Fuck I hope not, these sjw weirdos are ruining this country. Do you want to country like Canada where you have to respect the pronouns of some heshe wearing huge prosthetic breasts in front of children?

[OddBeMe]

why do you care about someone's prosthetic breasts? Pretty sure women get them all the time. You conservative fcks are so body obsessed...

[Juxtapose]

www.thegatewaypundit.com/.../...72D571-scaled.jpeg

This NOT appropriate for children to see, especially from a teacher. Please tell me you're not demented and wicked enough to support this predation upon children.

[OddBeMe]

Yeah that one pic has been passed around a lot. Hardly a trend would you say?

[Juxtapose]

I don't care if it's a trend or if it's been passed around a lot. I care that children are subjected to this bullshit and the government of Canada is coddling a pedophile.

[Hispanic-Cool-Guy]

Democrats most likely will retain the senate but lose the majority in house of representatives.

[msc545]

Yes, Trump has sort of created some new problems... which I think the left predicted.

[MiseriaCantareAFI]

indies are smartening up

[Jerre]

I don’t think Dems have a chance in hell

[TheBigWhistle]

I totally agree with you. That's strictly a Republican MAGA stronghold.

Fortunately for Democrats, that's not where the election is being held.

[Paris13]

Failed. xx