Are you interested in Ukraine v Russia?

[Lliam]

Scott Ritter gives good analysis and perspective in this 40 interview. I didn't get bored watching it.

[CALIGVLA]

Yes, I am interested in the Russo-Ukrainian war because this event signals the end of a world order known as "Liberal World Order"/"Rules-based Order"/US-led World Order/US hegemony, which has only brought chaos to the world, and the return of multipolarity in international relations, and also because I'm an asylum lawyer and this war has so far generated almost 8 million refugees, by far the most violent event in Europe since the end of World War Two.

The US elites want to keep their hegemony in international relations at any cost, but they can't break the "Axis of Multipolarity" formed by China-Russia-Iran. At this point, China has become unstoppable in its path to becoming the dominant world power due to its gigantic economy and technological progress, Russia is both undermining the dollar's stability as global currency and creating alternatives to the Western-led financial institutions, besides exhausting and depleting the overpriced NATO's military might.

The future for Ukraine is very gloomy, though. They embraced neoconservatism and will pay a huge toll because of that. The Ukrainian people will see death and poverty until their leadership surrender.

[Lliam]

Excellent analysis, CALIGVLA

[CALIGVLA]

Thank you a lot, @Lliam. I really appreciate your thought-provoking contributions on here.

[RonStone45]

Not bad.

[Lliam]

Thanks, CALIGVLA. Same here. :-)

[RealMarek]

Despite outright lies and propaganda constantly fed to us about this conflict, it is a war of attrition that Ukraine cannot win. It is being decided by artillery firepower, in which Russia has a 9:1 advantage on the field. The West’s stock of 155 mm artillery shells is being depleted by this war. Furthermore, the West’s industrial capacity is too limited to quickly produce more shells. To provide some context about how big of a problem this is, the DoD said it plans to ramp up production of shells from 20,000 per month to 40,000 per month over the next several years. Russia uses 20-60,000 artillery shells per day. The US even turned to South Korea, which declined to export more shells for the war effort because it needs them to defend against North Korea.

[Pohjolan]

Accuracy is a factor here and Russia is burning through its cold war reserves. They will also get to the point where their ammo use is restricted by how much they can produce.
Moreover shell production has increased in countries supporting Ukraine.
This isn't just widely known public information because the producers are targets for potential Russian activities like they have been sending letter bombs.

[RealMarek]

@Pohjolan from what I’ve seen Western production isn’t increasing enough to sustain this war. Russia has a huge military industrial complex, and if they need assistance they can tap into Chinese manufacturing capacity that dwarfs that of the West. Also, the Eurasian bloc can produce everything with cheap energy and materials, while the cost to the West is huge and would aggravate already severe inflation in Europe. I’m not saying things could be different, just that it won’t change in time for this war and it won’t change until the West drops the green revolution and WEF nonsense.

[Pohjolan]

How many factories in Europe are currently producing 152mm 24/7?

[RealMarek]

@Pohjolan Not enough to win, at least not yet, and it is unclear whether Europe will be able to afford heavy production after its natural gas stockpiles are drawn down in 2023.

www.rusi.org/.../return-industrial-warfare

news.yahoo.com/...mbling-build-more-230303583.html

Production will ramp up, especially in the US. I’m just saying that based on the Pentagon’s own target of reaching 40,000 rounds per day by 2025 and the fact that Russia has its own industrial base plus access to Chinese supply that can expand more rapidly than the West’s, it is too late for this war.

[Pohjolan]

So in other words you don't know.
Your speculations won't change reality on the ground.
China could support heavily Russia but so far is reluctant to do so.
Thing is that they don't mind Russian influence in the region being replaced by their own.

[RealMarek]

@Pohjolan what I do know is that the Pentagon itself said there is no timely solution to the ammo problem. I agree with your point that we will see the reality on the ground. Currently that reality is 9:1 firepower superiority in Russia’s favor. Perhaps that will change in time, perhaps not. We’ll know sometime next year.

[AlphaGhost]

@Pohjolan Bro Eu/NATO can't produce 155mm shells and even if they do, they are useless now cuz Ukranian artillery and guns barrels have passed their expiry date/ number of shells in barrel lifetime. They have to retire everything, or it will start exploding like grenades.
So no and even Ursula von der Leyen accidently admitted that Ukraine has suffered more than 100,000 recently and its just over for West right now... Russia has repeatedly given up cities like Kherson to save their army from causalities, while Zelenski is demanding Hitler's Wafan SS like Phanatic resistance for his army like we shave seen in Mariupol.

by the way China is supplying Raw material o Russia now and their companies are just assembling the weapons now.

[Lliam]

@AlphaGhost. Good analysis. Thanks.

[Pohjolan]

@AlphaGhost
You don't know what you are talking about.

[lightbulb27]

yes, I've watched a lot of Scott Ritter and Douglas McGregor, and others I find. Ritter was an important feeder on my thinking on Iraq. I scan mainstream news as well as videos of the front line fighting and reviews by youtubers and fighters from various countries with front line video, and civilians Ukranian civilians.

Those two have more decades more experience than most. What's difficult is their view is counter to the admin/media message. Watching front line videos carefully helped me validate... they are likely right... Ukraine being prepped for overwhelming assault.

I was listening to Putin before this blew up... he was being ignored. The only hope is political settlement... but our illustriously poorly chosen leaders seem disinterested if not intentional in screwing this to he!!. So the absolutely horrific carnage will gointo next phase, progressing in risk. I believe... Russia pushes to make Ukraine's new boundary at the Dnipro river. Will USA have gotten enough material, ammo, and men trained to hold/push them back? I think they know it's coming...

For what it's worth, I disagreed with Iraq before it started and found Bush to be a dangerous guy to be president because of his personality. Biden is more hazardous because he doesn't have the energy for this. Would he agree to use a tactial nuke to solve a problem... and change the world forever?

Russia seems to be going carefully to avoid drawing NATO response. Putin sadly, seems more sane than my own govt right now.

It's one of my hopes that many democrats and liberals become inspired to sit in the trenches of the front lines... for even 10 minutes. rotating shifts... that... would greatly improve hope in my country. As of now, were screwed.

[Lliam]

Good observations, lightbulb, and I agree.

[VIVANT]

Well dammm this was unexpectedly spot on. 💡

[Ad_Quid_Orator]

I was listening to Putin to and while he did talk about NATO, he also called Ukraine a "fake state". Shortly after the war began, I was also listening to Zelensky and he offered neutrality for peace back in March; if this war was about NATO expanding into Ukraine, it would have been over by now.

Sure, maybe Putin couldn't have gotten enough support for the war were it not for NATO expansion but now that the gears of war have been set in motion, agreeing to stop NATO expansion (which I think we should do) won't stop it.

[lightbulb27]

@VIVANT unexpectedly.. aren't I usually spot on 😜?

[VIVANT]

Haha you are indeed 😝 its just rare to see good political takes on gag in general 🤓

[USLegionary]

I disagree. The average Ukrainian soldier is much better equipped and trained than the average Russian soldier. The Russian airforce and Russian army helicopter force isn't in the skies because they've lost so many and its the same with Russian armor. The Russian military is forced to rely on WW1&2 style massed artillery strikes instead of precision strikes. The Russians are short on everything having to import military equipment from IRAN and they are using old Warsaw pact equipment from the 60s. I mean when Russian troops haven't enough AKs that they have to give soldiers ironsights Mosin Nagants from ww1 and SKS rifles and no kevlar body armor or helmets. Meanwhile Ukrainian soldiers are getting training from NATO, they have body armor for every soldier. They have old AKS or M16A4s, M4s FAMAS, Steyer AUG, G36, G3, FAL, AK5s, M14s, FN2000, SCAR, KELTEC RPD, Ruger mini14, m1A2 Springfield and any other NATO personal weaponry including light and heavy machine guns. NATO is feeding Ukraine forces live intelligence of Russian postions, communications and movements. They can strike targets accurately with drones and artillery all with accurate coordinates from satellites. All Ukraine has to do is keep fighting and like the Russians in Afghanistan the Russians in Ukraine will be forced to pull out. The US has vast fields of military equipment and are litteraly handing out stuff for free like its candy, stuff that was used in Afghanistan and Iraq. Ukrainians have better military hospitals and eat better.

https://youtu.be/_xKwRvXab7k

[Lionman95]

Yes but I just follow it not very closely. The reason is because many of the voices contradict each other. When the war started I was in the position that Russia would soon win the war but that changed at slightly because the Russian haven´t managed to achieve a lot in the past months.

Even the Ukraine doesn´t win that war I want them it as costly and expensive as it can get for Russia. I want Russia and especially Putin & Co. to really have to pay for it as much as possible. Why because if they get with that and we probably can see a WW3 any time soon since war becomes a reasonable part of politics again and politicians proved they didn´t learn a thing from the past two world wars.

[CALIGVLA]

"Why because if they get with that and we probably can see a WW3"

Your analysis is absurd since its the West which is actually irresponsibly pushing for WW3, but your Western supremacist feelings blinded you to that.

[Lionman95]

@CALIGVLA To be fair, it´s true that the West is playing a big part in it since Western countries are living a lifestyle that other countries want to. Like look at the riots in Iran or look at the protests in Belarus. They all want to or wanted to live that way, too but I don´t think it´s only the West that pushes the interest in a war since dictators always had an interest in wars to take attention from their politics.
That´s the reason why Hitler started WW2, that´s the reason why Turkey attacked the Kurds in Syria some years ago, that´s one of the reasons Netanjahu had interest to fire up the Gaza conflict in the 2010s.
Don´t get me wrong I´m saying that the West is innocent because sure especially the US always has interest in a political conflict if they could get one.
But I would argue that Putin just waited for a moment to attack Ukraine for whatever reason he could find. The actual interest of the whole operation is to bring Russia back to the Soviet size.
Anything else is just an excuse.
The same works for China with Taiwan and Hong-Kong, they regret letting them have some independency and now they want them back no matter the cost.

[CALIGVLA]

"Western countries are living a lifestyle that other countries want to."

It's easy to be prosperous if you exploit the rest of the world, manipulate currency and stock markets, preach "free markets" to others while you have thousands of protectionist trade policies, and, last but not least, steal other people's wealth. This is the West explained.

Besides that, you're only showing your ignorance if you think other peoples want Western "values" in their countries. The protests in Iran are led by separatist minorities, particularly the Kurds and the Azeris. This trollolo about "women's rights" is just intended to garner support from the West as it's indeed easy to bamboozle NPCs like you.

If you had actually been to Iran and any Eastern country, you'd see that people don't want to adopt Western culture, do you want me to tell you more about it until you understand it?

"dictators always had an interest in wars to take attention from their politics."

Biden is setting the world on fire to divert our attention away from inflation, poverty, the drug epidemic, etc. Is he a dictator too?

I don't buy into this stupid narrative of "the good West versus the bad autocrats," only a fool can't see that this is a tool to spread division across the world.

"But I would argue that Putin just waited for a moment to attack Ukraine for whatever reason he could find. "

Even Angela Merkel admitted that the war was inevitable and the West played Russia with peace deals that they knew themselves that the Ukrainian leadership would not honor so get your facts straight.

[Lionman95]

@CALIGVLA Like what´s the difference between the West and China? Because China´s business model is built on copying the West. Exploiting minorities is the power play of every strong nation no original character trait of Western society. That´s something also Saudi-Arabia or Qatar do and they probably wouldn´t call themselves Western.
The difference between Biden and Putin that Biden could be kicked out of office by an election but since his term isn´t over his presidency hasn´t ended. Biden has been in office since 2 years, Putin since 22.
Sure East European countries don´t want copy the Western lifestyle that´s probably why they are but why there have been over 700 McDonald´s restaurants in Russia in 2019. That´s probably why they Russians still buy iphones. That´s probably why Iran has seen a need to ban instagram because nobody wants to use that.
There are always to see things in different ways.
We both live in two different bubbles and I can accept that. Have a nice time here.

[CALIGVLA]

"Like what´s the difference between the West and China?"

What was the last war that China fought, smartass? Do you see China invading other countries to steal its resources like the West does? Do you see China meddle in other countries' domestic affairs by funding color revolutions to depose leaders which China doesn't like?

"Because China´s business model is built on copying the West"

Can you Western supremacists stop embarrassing yourselves for a minute? Do you see China impose the woke or ESG agenda on its business? Do you see diversity quotas in China? Do you see a black man with a Chinese woman when you see ads in China? Do you see Chinese companies promoting the LGBTQ+ agenda?

"Exploiting minorities"

I'm not accusing the West of exploiting its minorities, I'm accusing the West of exploiting the rest of the world. But this will end with the Multipolar Order and Westerners will have to learn to actually work and produce palpable wealth.

"The difference between Biden and Putin that Biden could be kicked out of office by an election"

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

BIG FUCKING DEAL!

Do you think Biden is the one who ***actually*** runs the show in this country?

I mean, are you this naïve?

The US is a plutocracy in the most exact meaning of this word, we can depose the puppet Joe Biden, but how can we depose the elites who actually have 100% of the power in this country? How can we depose the Military Industrial Complex? How can we depose Black Rock and Vanguard?

In which ways voting Biden out would change this country if another puppet will replace him?

"East European countries don´t want copy the Western lifestyle"

China and Iran aren't Eastern European countries, smartass. Also, eating shitty fast food and having an IG account are different from ***embracing Western values*** if you're too stupid to see that. You're comparing apples to oranges.

[Juxtapose]

It boils my blood to know that the mafia is controlling our government to the point where we are using a proxy war to launder money! Did you guys know that before 1957 the FBI did not even acknowledge the existence of the mafia?

[Pohjolan]

No he is wrong. Russia is facing some serious issues in this conflict.

Like their number of operational tanks/IFV:s/APC:s is much lower than the number of hulls they have and they are already bringing prisoners to tank factories to compensate for a lack of workforce.

Or they are using up bearings faster than what they can produce.

Russia will be in some real trouble by 2025.

[Adaeva]

The USA should remove themselves from Ukraine and Ukraine should again be part of Russia.

[12Volt]

America has always loved war. It's a huge money maker. But now we're outsourcing wars to other countries. It's brilliant. We still get to make money, but at least Americans aren't getting their legs blown off. It's the other guys.

[AnUglyBarnacle]

It sounds selfish, but the war does not affect me directly. These things happen, and countries have to try avoid escalating further (see WW1).

I am concerned about what Putin may do if he becomes desperate.

[Daniela1982]

Then why are we pumping $100 Billion dollars into it?

[Lliam]

Money laundering?
Fattening up arms manufacturers?

[Daniela1982]

I watched it. I'm not understanding about Russians killing their own troops, them not having weapons for their troops, and all the other things you hear. Russia is made out to be the bad guys but the US seems to be the cheaters and treaty breakers. I still don't see why we are baking the Ukraine or what the US plans on accomplishing, especially if we can't get the gas and oil we need and we wind up with no food.

[Lliam]

We certainly aren't being told the whole story. The official narrative is fictitious.
Regarding the motive, there are wheels within wheels. Big,, big money and world domination are at stake. And that's not Russia's motive. All it will do is defend itself.

[Cubus]

Considering I am Polish and this is happening right behind my border - yes.

[Dildорhobe]

I will have to watch it before the mandela effect changes all weapons into sex toys in this video. Then it will be truly frightening. Otherwise I'm not afraid of wars.

[HippieVeganJewslim]

Да, comrade, as I’m Russian. That means not that I support Russia, which I don’t. I care not who’ll win; I just want to murder Putin and stop the war.

[CALIGVLA]

Too bad, little one. The war only will stop when the West stop trying to dominate the world.

[HippieVeganJewslim]

@CALIGVLA I live in West Africa. I care not about domination, as long as there’s no bullies.

[CALIGVLA]

You care about what Putin is doing to Ukraine, but you don't care about the West is doing to the world?

GFY.

[CALIGVLA]

The Wolfowitz Doctrine followed by the US is incomparably worse than anything you think Russia did to Ukraine.

mronline.org/.../

[HippieVeganJewslim]

@CALIGVLA I hate what the damn Yankeeland is doing. What is the ‘West’ doing to the world? Do you realise what’s up with Uyghur Muslims? That genocide would make Hitler’s Holocaust seem tame.

[CALIGVLA]

What has the West doing to the world?

Are you fucking out of your mind?

Don't you know that the West killed 1 million Iraqi civilians to steal their wealth and got away with that?

Don't you know that the West destroyed Libya, which was the most prosperous African country before being "Westernized"?

Don't you know that the West killed lots of Afghans, managed the production of opium in the country, gave protection to pedophile warlords because they were pro US?

Don't you know that Western colonialism in fact never ended, but took on a new form as political and financial colonialism?

What more do you need to be ashamed of being a vile Western supremacist?

[HippieVeganJewslim]

@CALIGVLA I ain’t a supremacist, so it’s not my fault but theirs. I’m aware of those, thanks, but I just thought you meant some other things, more current ones. Libya is more in the east than in the west.

[CALIGVLA]

Current ones?

The war in Ukraine was result of the direct provocations made by the West plus Ukraine plus the violence of the Ukrainian forces against the country's ethnic minorities, especially the Russian ones. The Wolfowitz Doctrine explains why the West did so if you read the article I sent you.

The Western leadership is a filthy criminal entity for doing it. Fortunately, it will be defeated by Russia.

[LiamJHayden]

Only insofar as it can drag the rest of the world to destruction.

[AngryCarl]

Very much so, since the Ukraine is a buffer between Europe and Putin's rogue state.

[SpringValley]

Ukraine should just surrender.

[Sevenpointfive]

not really. it's a fake war

[Lliam]

Anything but fake if you speak Russian or disagree with the government. Savage animals have taken control of the Ukrainian government and military. They target civilians.

[jshm2]

WW3 territory, to be fair.

[Anonymous]

No, Let them bomb them selves to hell

[AsaKyo]

Not really