What nation will be the strongest in 20 years?

[Anonymous]

USA

China

Other

Unsure

[Kessia99]

China and Russia are both in an extreme demographic collapse. And the current conflict scenarios in Eurasia, are of most benefit to India, and Indias demographics are robust.

Africa, and SE ASIA are demographic juggernauts, and i expect the influence of this regions to grow significantly over the next 2 decades.

USA has the Best demographic situation in the developed world, a 10 yr. Technological lead on China, the most airable farmland on the planet, the cheapest energy in the world, The most advanced army in the world.

So i would USA or India, with an eye on Indonesia

Now that i read the question, What criteria are we talking about?

[Dargil]

Ahh. I see you have been thinking. Thought is dangerous now.

[Anonymous]

Americans would have shot each other by then.

[AmeerX]

6 months later, India landed on south pole of the MOON 🌝

[Dargil]

China is a shooting star due to its population bomb and overheated economy.
Iran and Turkey are hampered by their religious zealotry so nobody trusts them.
Russia will keep slogging along.
The ASEAN countries plus S. Korea and Japan will answer China.
The USA is in a state of decline and it will take blood letting to restore it. That happens within 15 years or less.
India has promise. The USA will help them along to replace us as the largest Democracy (it already is) and foremost super power.
After the bloodletting, the USA and India will become/remain strong allies.

[NewtoTheSouth]

So you predict major civil war in USA in the next 15 years? Between who?

[Dargil]

@NewtoTheSouth Never said civil war. There will be a conflict between between Patriots and those who want to dismantle the USA. That conflict will be some form of unequal uprising.

[NewtoTheSouth]

But it will be extremely bloody? Like tens of thousands of lives lost?

[Dargil]

@NewtoTheSouth No, rather a Disposition Matrix (like Obama's) that targets those needing it.

[NewtoTheSouth]

What is a Dispositional Matrix?

[Dargil]

@NewtoTheSouth A precision strike of a few hundred would be all that's needed.

[Adaeva]

Your opinions may or may not be correct but they are as good any of the others I've read and better than most.

[Dargil]

@NewtoTheSouth The Disposition Matrix, informally known as a kill list, is a database of information for tracking, capturing, rendering, or killing suspected enemies of the United States. Developed by the Obama administration beginning in 2010, it goes beyond existing kill lists and is intended to become a permanent fixture of U. S. policy.

[Dargil]

@Adaeva They're as good as any and may make people think, like them or not.

[Anonymous]

i don't know but definitely not USA based on the current direction of the country

[Soteris]

Nothing will change in 20 years. Countries move at a pretty slow pace.

[turnpost]

China was garbage in the 70's like conditions worse than India.

[Soteris]

@turnpost And how much do you think has changed, and I do mean ACTUALLY changed?

[turnpost]

A F ton.

[Soteris]

@turnpost And it is not today?

[turnpost]

what?

[Soteris]

@turnpost For all the progress China has had in the last few decades I am personally of the opinion that it has not actually resulted in that big of an actual improvement. Most of the things they have done is empty growth, things that look good on paper but will not provide this value in reality. The ghost cities is a good example where they spent ungodly amount of money to build entire cities with barely a person living in them. Furthermore the things they DO build is often of such low quality that its honestly just not worth it and you need to pay extra just to demolish and redo it properly.

You could also go look at their belt and road initiative which is basically their bid to become a world super power and see how fucking poorly that is going with more and more failed projects due to corruption, failure to pay and non existent building standards.

My argument is basically that while they have technically grown their economy, it has been done so poorly that you need to demolish it all and start again at which point you are probably worse off than never having done any of this in the first place.

[turnpost]

""""I am personally of the opinion""" at best we are speculating. I dont know the true details of china.

But the US is in debt to China so that is one thing. China is getting Bloodthirsty maybe they feel they show power and get away with it.

"""""""""""My argument is basically that while they have technically grown their economy, it has been done so poorly that you need to demolish it all and start again at which point you are probably worse off than never having done any of this in the first place."""""""""""

Your guess is as good as my Guess. But no doubt it Chinas progress will shrink from some bogus collapse maybe but progress often works like that. There no way in hell going to go back to the 70's.

[Soteris]

@turnpost I am not simply speculating. For example, we can factually determine that many high profile projects in the belt and road initiative built with borrowed money from China and with Chinese companies has either failed, not been built or is of such low quality that they can't be used for their intended purposes.

This is of course terrible for the countries that borrowed insane amounts of Chinese money to build these things but also bad for China because these loans will probably not be repaid nor will the constructions help them achieve super power status and have to be rebuilt.

I have also seen people who live in China tell their story which is pretty horrific where people punch through "concrete" walls on skyscrapers and have a lovely apartment building turn basically derelict in 5 years with both bad building standards but also no maintenance including changing light bulbs.

It is insane. There is also a youtube channel of two dudes driving around China on motorcylces and it becomes dystopian real damn quick once you leave the "new" parts and the "new" parts are often empty. Point is, I can't understand how things are working at all and then we take the current economic crisis and population collapse where their population is going to halve in like 30-50 years... They are done for.

[turnpost]

You base your opinions of Chinese nation off of two Youtuber British motocyclists?
Like come on now.

[Soteris]

@turnpost Partially yes. Not only are they first hand witnesses and has experience of the decline over the years since the lived there but also hours upon hours upon hours of unedited longterm footage of them just driving around China and looking inside crumbling buildings.

As a whole it is very compelling evidence combined with all the other sources I have that confirms what they are showing and telling.

[Adaeva]

Probably China but Russia will be growing by leaps and bounds.

[NewtoTheSouth]

I don't think Russia will be stronger than USA or even China anytime soon, meaning this entire century.

[Adaeva]

@NewtoTheSouth Russia have come out of a depression that eliminated all the inefficiencies, and having greater freedom, and being far more capitalistic will outgrow the USA by at least 10% per year. However, starting so far behind, it will take more than 20 years but less than 40 years.

[NewtoTheSouth]

I don't think Russia will outgrow USA by an average of 10% for the next 30% years. Given that the USA grows about 3% a year, that means Russia would have to grow on average 13% every year for 30 years. The growth rate will slow, like it has for China. The bigger your economy gets, the harder it is to maintain a really high growth rate. China is only about 3-5% now. https://www. imf. org/en/News/Articles/2023/02/02/cf-chinas-economy-is-rebounding-but-reforms-are-still-needed

[Dargil]

Russia will just slog along with a few manufactured crises. China is a shooting star that will be hot for a while and then fade when their economy collapses under the weight if retirees and real estate speculation.

[Kessia99]

interesting that you come to this conclusion. From what i have seen on the demographics of the Ethnic Russian population i would be shocked if they can keep the Federation together.

[gorydetails]

Not a clue. China, US, and Russia are all primed for a collapse.

[Anonymous]

China. Beijing Biden is making sure that.

[Anonymous]

definitely not the usa