Blinken went to China to try to ease tensions. At the same time, Biden called the Chinese president a dictator. What's Biden up to?

[Julie4]

[nightdrot]

The short answer to the question is: Less than meets the eye.

The seeming presumption of the question is that President Biden has some strategy behind his seemingly contradictory actions: Send the Secretary of State to ease tensions, but then call President Xi a dictator. In truth, Mr. Biden probably spoke with far less forethought.

To be fair, questions have been raised about the state of Mr. Biden's mental health stemming from his age. The state of his mind seeming to explain his seemingly contradictory actions and words. However, as I have argued here: Is Joe Biden The Prime Minister Of The United Kingdom? the state of Mr. Biden's health best not be made at a distance, but should be reserved for proper study in clinical conditions.

Such "at a distance" diagnosis is subject to partisan analysis and may, in fact, explain less about Mr. Biden's conduct. Making it less about his motives and more about his age.

In truth, like Mr. Trump before him, Mr. Biden is a populist. Committed to no particular agenda or strategy except to the extent that it satisfies popular or partisan resentments and biases. Thus, Mr. Biden has no real grand strategy to his foreign policy and is moved - and therefore speaks in - the mood of the moment.

This further aggravated by the fact that President Biden is really not presidential material. He is basically a small town political hack - not to put too fine a point on it - who made good. He filled the void left by his predecessor - himself a man who was more about satiating seething cultural anger - and campaigned on nothing in particular from his basement. Thereby securing no mandate other than to not be Mr. Trump. (The irony being that he is more like Mr. Trump - in style certainly and even, to some degree, in substance - than not.)

So Mr. Biden is in over his head. One moment he wants better relations with China, the next he does not. In fairness, President Xi is a dictator, certainly in a Western sense, but in furtherance of his policy - assuming better relations with China is his goal - as the old saw has it, "wisdom is knowing what to overlook."

Bottom line, President Biden has no particular agenda. He responds to the mood of the moment and speaks accordingly. This also a factor - though by no means the only or main factor - in why China has had not inconsiderable success in making inroads on American power, especially (and alarmingly) in the Western hemisphere.

What is President Biden up to? One wishes that it could be said that he has some grand strategy behind his obscure language. In truth, he is just making it from one day to the next - and that is about all there is to it. He is wildly out of his depth.

[Julie4]

To be honest, I'm asking this question because I don't understand what Biden wants to do. He sends Blinken to try to ease tensions, and at the same time Biden makes this kind of statement, what's the point? I mean, it's as if he'd taken Blinken's work and thrown it in the garbage can. I'm caricaturing, but I had that feeling.

[nightdrot]

Well, that was sort of my point. There is no strategy. Mr. Biden responds to the pressures of the moment. He is, as I say, out of his depth. Such is the price of populist politics.

Mr. Trump was similarly out of his depth, but his business experience and acumen served as something of a substitute for any larger strategic vision. Thus while his foreign policy was strategically vacuous, it was often tactically brilliant.

Mr. Biden is, as I noted, basically a small town politician who - stepping into the vacuum created by Trump's populist politics with an acid tone - made good. He has no larger strategic vision and his approach to foreign policy in general and to China in particular is opportunistic where it is not simply episodic.

You say that you don't understand what President Biden wants to do. Likely, were Mr. Biden to be interviewed - and please note that, unlike Trump, Biden works hard to avoid the media - his answers to the kinds of questions you pose would be superficial and vague. Quite simply, beyond platitudes, Mr. Biden does not know what he wants to do either and his administration has no equivalent of Henry Kissinger to fill the void.

[Julie4]

I don't think the forthcoming American presidential elections offer much to look forward to. I fear that the debates will not be up to the stakes. I hope I'm wrong about the USA.

[nightdrot]

Actually, I would tend to agree. Both parties have serious people, but the two presidential frontrunners - President Biden and Mr. Trump - are second tier figures. They are populists and appeal to no philosophically consistent positions, but rather to the populist resentments of the hour.

The American people tend to forget - and they are not the only ones - that in a democracy, the people do not decide. Rather, they decide which elites decide.

The problem right now is that "elite" has become a trendy epithet. Suffice to add that when elite becomes an epithet it suggests that the public is outraged at the idea of excellence.

This is where the USA is at the moment. The reasons for this are historically, culturally and sociologically complex. Yet be that as it may it means that mediocre figures will tend to rise to the top of the political ladder - as indeed looks, barring unforeseen events, likely to happen.

Thus the presidential election to follow.

[Julie4]

Anyway, I hope you and your family are well, your son at Baseball today? One day you'll have to explain the rules of this sport to me.

Take care of yourself and your family.😊

[nightdrot]

Best to you, too.

As to baseball, two boys and two games scheduled, but it looks like they will be rained out. We are having a rather wet weekend. Anyhow, we expect to get a call in about an hour or so telling us if the games are still on.

Stay tuned for further excitement!!

[RavVid]

So what would be a good policy it could be asked? One answer might be to persuade China to go down a Japan/Germany trajectory which is basically the post WW2 world order the US introduced.

A follow on question might be does China ever get to get out of chips sanctions?

I'm off to read your Biden the Prime Minister so I'll leave at what set of carrots and sticks should be set for China and what degree of autarky should the US have?

[nightdrot]

@RavVid Circumstances will determine what "carrot and sticks" are required. However, the problem is that the USA is suffering from what might be called - this referring to Yamamoto's famous observation post-Pearl Harbor - "victory disease."

World War II and the Cold War were ideological contests. To fight them the USA turned to its' ideals - free markets, democracy, human rights, etc. That was appropriate and it worked.

The era in which the USA and China are in is more like the pre-WWI era. Not so much ideology, as the balance of power, spheres of influence, alliances, realpolitik, and the like. (Though ironically, the combination of the Russian Revolution and American entry into the war would turn the Great War into an ideological conflict.)

It has been said of China that it is now less interested in Marx in theory than Lenin in practice. Thus the Chinese have taken advantage of American philosophical principles to advance its' own power. (Think of this, Adam Smith, the father of capitalism famously said, "The merchant has no country.")

The USA is finding this difficult to cope with. It tends to think - if not always consciously - that by exposing China to free markets and democracy, it will change China. Not likely.

In the Cold War, Reagan was right and Kissinger was wrong. In the current era, we need less Reagan wannabes and more Kissingers. That would be the appropriate starting point for dealing with China.

Less John Locke. More Machiavelli.

[RavVid]

Interesting point on the Great War turning into an ideological war with the Russian Revolution & American entry. I hadn't considered that previously but it became such as you say. I had mostly thought of it as an aristocratic industrial war ended with an idealistic peace.

If you don't mind I like to say things back so I can be corrected on what I take people to have said and Reagan vs Kissinger was very interesting. OK Kissinger is the exponent of real politik. I'm not so sure how Reagan but I guess as combative from the high moral ground (evil empire etc). I see that with an ideological opponent you need to combat the ideas and certainly some quite prominent British people found Nazi philosophy attractive. If they are pretty much same then it does become more which King gets this county and it is more of a commercial enterprise.

In 2023 the west is highly doctrinal. Kissinger's view that Ukraine should take on for the West doesn't fly that well. Can we say that the West's doctrine provokes an ideological war with Russia/China? Regardless though we would still seem to have a strong ideological conflict and if a country like Ukraine Taiwan wants the western deal it exposes a strong bedrock of idealism in people like myself who would normally say they aren't.

I don't think the US was on it's own in thinking China would transform. Japan/Germany did (albeit with new constitutions forced on them). Rising middle classes have always sought a share of power (Europe 1848). History could have repeated :)

I would agree with Adam Smith excepting when merchants form their own city state :)

[nightdrot]

@RavVid Not sure I follow what you are trying to say as regards Ukraine in your 3rd paragraph.

No, the contest between Russia and Ukraine is one rooted in realpolitik. Traditional spheres of influence and all the rest.

In truth, the USA has no interest in Ukraine winning the war, It does have an interest in Ukraine not losing the war. If Ukraine wins, it drives Russia and China further together and the West could not defeat such an alliance. (As things have gone wrong for Russia, note that it is drifting toward China. So far, China has reacted cautiously, but Beijing would have no problem dominating a weakened Russia.)

Yet if the USA does not support Ukraine, the states of eastern Europe will come to regard NATO and US support as unreliable. They will begin to cut their own deals with Russia - this made worse in that they will still stay in NATO and thus attempt to have the best of both worlds.

As to the other major states of Europe, they have all played it out in their historic national interests. The UK, which wants a balance of power on the continent, has been the most supportive of Ukraine. Historically, to maintain the balance of power, the UK threw its' weight behind the weaker power or powers. It is doing so again.

CONT.

[nightdrot]

Germany, France and Italy have all played more subtle games. Germany, in particular, seeking to maintain the closest ties to Russia - as a source of food and raw materials and as a market for German goods and services - while giving some support to Ukraine but far less than the UK.

Bottom line, it is a subtle game. There is here no real ideological divide. No one is arguing for supporting Ukraine in order to spread freedom and democracy.

As to your point about China. Yes, you are right. An ideological contest is one between not just nations, but cultures. Post-Cold War faith in democracy and markets was what helped inspire the expansion and deepening of the EU, for example. The assumption being that democracy and free markets were the keys to success and that China could not resist that.

In fact, China has not. It adopted Western tools - see also free markets - in its' historic cultural context as the Middle Kingdom and is using that to dominate the West. The West, in response, has been slow to re-adapt to a realpolitik model.

Hope that helps.

[RavVid]

Yes it has thanks

[RavVid]

Putin is more a dictator than Stalin ever was because the later had a politburo to limit him. Xi has consolidated his power within the CCP structure to a degree that it is also personal absolute rule.

So I would agree with Biden's use of dictator. There certainly appears to be inconsistent messaging with Blinken going to China to ease tensions but that phrase is more likely a diplomatic way of saying 'making the buggars back down' in my view.

Xi could take Biden's words as kind acknowledgement of his power and I think would recognize Biden's dictator jab to be in part domestic politics rallying the troops and in part a reaffirmation of US geo politics.

Xi cannot be unaware that China's aggressive position in the South China Sea is going to cause opposition though he might hope that the US will rollover with the odd nasty growl, it isn't that likely in my view. I doubt Blinken is being less forthright in private.

The risk is that, like Germany twice before it, China may decide it is go now or never go. Perhaps like Japan's Pearl Harbor or Putin's Ukraine adventure.

China does seem to be facing an existential risk of going broke before it gets rich. A channel I watch was showing the area around the Foxconn factory. Every shop was shuttered and a lot of smaller factories closed or just holding on with borrowed money, a lot of citations of lower wages then basic cost of living. It is a mistake to generalize from local devastation to country wide though.

I don't think it is possible to understate the threat of the chips war. China does have deep ultra violet (DUV) lithography and technically could make 4 nm chips (though what a 4 nm chip is, is fairly vague now) by repeated exposures in very broad terms but it is inefficient with lower yields. Japan has withdrawn support for DUV following US. So any technical problems that arise might be enduring.

China has no hope of obtaining externally, extreme ultra violet lithography (EUV) and so is limited unless it can develop its own indigenous capabilities. But quite a number of hi tech companies have failed and China's own efforts have failed to date so this is not by any means a certain outcome. It's AI efforts would be most affected I would think.

Which will translate to military capabilities before consumer products such as AI self driving cars.

I'd be confident Biden/Blinken are trying to face China down whilst enforcing a strategic chips long term advantage. I'm not so sure it is talks to ease tensions as talks to back them down.

Nobody is going to win with trades sanctions and supply chain disruptions but I think China has the weaker hand. but it could decide to go early as in a short space of time it won't be able to.

[Anonymous]

Of course he's a dictator. Literally everyone knows that.

[Opinion Owner]

Trump compliments Xi for power grab-Republicans: stand and applaud his every word.

Biden calls Xi dictator. Republicans: OMG he is f'ing everything up.

No more hypocritical people on the planet.

[Agape93]

To be fair, Xi is a dictator, so he was being honest.

[Sixgunsound]

That's probably the only time in his legal or political career that he ever told the truth

[Agape93]

Yeah really

[exitseven]

This is theatre. Biden has taken millions in bribes from China. He is giving them free reign to take over Taiwan so if anyone calls him on it he can deny it by saying he called Xi a dictator. The media will go along with it and it will get bloomed as usual.

[exitseven]

*broomed*

[RyanEC]

China use to be more of a one party state instead of a dictatorship where the communist party controlled everything but the leader interchangeable such as with Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.
Now XI Jinping is moving in an absolute dictatorship direction similar to Mao Zedong.


As for Biden I don’t think he knows what he is doing.

[Pudsmucker]

Bites a kiss ass. He has no idea what's going on in his cabinet. He has no idea what's going on in our country even though he's the president of United States. Biden needs to step down and go into an old folks home. Maybe an assisted living center. He looks like death warmed over.

[Hispanic-Cool-Guy]

Biden isn't lying. The Chinese government is a dictatorship.

And Biden is also trying to built up tension to start a war sometime down the road.

America is a nation of war and America needs to fight wars to remain the top dog in geo-politics.

[genericname85]

biden does his VERY best to fuck the nation. and he is very successfull at it. and that's me looking in. i don't live in USA. i don't care. just a neutral observation.

[Avicenna]

Biden is given scripts by his handlers. He probably went off script due to his deteriorating cognitive abilities.

[SawerBrown]

The Chinese president is a dictator that been well known for sometime I doubt that Biden knows what he's doing.

[slatyb]

He's right about one thing -- Xi Jinping is a dictator.

[TotallyAlmost]

It's all a charade. China owns both of these corruptocrats.

[DextroShade]

Like Biden is one to talk with him jailing his political opponents.

[Guanfei]

Biden himself doesn't even know where or who he is, whatever he says is irrelevant

[Anonymous]

He is a dictator.

[BLP11520]

Being stupid, like always

[Anonymous]

Biden is a clown. He has no idea what he says.