1 in the #russia war, how many MODERN battle tanks would be good strategy for russia to send or save?

[strateguy632]

1 in the russia war, how many MODERN battle tanks would be good strategy for russia to send or save?

2, russia had over 12,000 tanks, including old ones in storage, in 2020 [according to the website i checked then in 2020 about the most powerful armies, before i knew a war would start in 2022, 700 days ago.]

when russia invaded ukraine, in February 2022, it had around 3,000 operational battle tanks. since then russia lost around 6,000 tanks including old ones during 2022 and 2023. among those russia lost at least half of the modern ones 1,700 by feb. 2023 or even 2,300 [then? or] by now two years later.

now we can estimate around one thousand operational tanks remain, [therefore around 5000 old in storage: 12,000= 3,000 operational +9,000, and 6,000 lost= 2,000 modern+ 4,000 therefore 9-4=5, therefore 5,000 old remain in storage but should recycle the metal of anything more than 30-40 years old in making new ones] so:
should russia throw everything into ukraine... down to the last ten new tanks as it makes a few hundred per year?
3, or keep a hundred in their west border? [russia guards it border in contrast to biden policy]
4, or just a few new near st. peterburg and moscow?

[Soteris]

Russia is the aggressor in this war, it is in their best interest to end the war as quickly as possible. If they have something that they keep in reserve then two years ago was the correct timing to use that aside from nukes which can't be used in a conventional war due to the circumstances.

In other words, Russia should send all their "Modern" tanks. Saving them makes no sense. Either Russia wins anyways, in which case sending more tanks would speed it up and lower the cost for Russia or Russia won't win in which case the tanks are worthless anyways. Right now Russias tanks only has value in their actual usage in Ukraine, the fact that they have a pile of rusting metal in Siberia is not making anyone in Russia happy aside from the supply commanders who are busy stripping the copper wires out of them to sell for Vodka.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_4M5dTHIU

If we use this as a rough estimate then Russia has about 50 T90, 910 T80 and 1735 T72. Including all the older tanks it sounds like they have about 3525 tanks that looks to be in "good" condition (based on blurry satellite pictures) and 5450 if included bad tanks too.

This is however before Russia started its last intensive assault which threw away tanks at insane rates so I imagine there are a couple of hundred less now.

Furthermore, these tanks in storage can't be replaced. Russia does not have the industrial capacity to recycle these tanks and build new ones. At best they can (and have) taken these old tanks and refurbished them and that is currently the main source of tanks in the Russian army with only around 10-30% being new production.

I doubt there are any significant equipment currently on the borders of Russia. We have already seen Russia transport tanks and equipment on train carts from all the way over on the east coast to resupply in Ukraine. There might still be soldiers manning the borders but they probably only have rifles and the oldest of gear available. That is aside from the defenses around Moscow itself which received quite the upgrade after Wagner had its little drive towards it.

So yeah, Putin needs to break the Ukrainian front lines as quickly as he can while at the same time keeping a significant force around Moscow to prevent any would-be rebellions from taking his head. Anything else, including the defense of the actual Russian borders, will have to be downgraded to a minimum garrison with token equipment. Otherwise Russia will lose and will never recover.

[RebelinSteel]

It’s not the numbers but how they are employed. In the opening attacks in 2022, we are 684 days into the war. At the start of the attack on Kiev, they had a huge advantage in aircraft and air defence. Armour was sent out to attack without suitable massed air cover or close air support. This has been seen repeated time and time again, since then, increasing numbers is pointless if they keep using the same tactics. Also the war started in 2014 and from 2022 there have been no real gains by Russia other than to show the rest of the world just how weak it really is and how poor its forces are equipped.

[Drewtate]

The Russians had plenty of close sir support at the start of the war, the problem was that they kept getting shot down. Without it, Russian armor was picked off by prepared anti tank postions

[collie22]

Strategies.. Russia should move their tanks and troops back behind there own border and get out of Ukraine. act like good country with morals.

[Drewtate]

What Russia is doing now is the correct strategy. Theyve dug in

[Soteris]

You are not going to win a race if you stand still. Russia has to advance or it becomes a default Ukrainian win. Digging in and weathering the Ukrainian assault means Russia is on the losing side and all it does is slow down the rate in which it is losing.

[Drewtate]

@Soteris no. Russia has exhausted its potential offensive capability and needs time to rebuild. They made a mistake invading in the first place and was not ready, now they are trying to save face.
I dont believe Ukrainians will be able to dislodge the Russians in their dug in fortified postions and to attempt do so will cost them more than they can afford. They've already failed. At this moment in time modern warfare and technology favours the defender which is why Russia lost so many tanks and planes as well as their best trained regulars. Now all they need is a smaller amount of troops to defend the donbass and let the Ukrainian military break themselves trying to advance against them. The Ukrainians have been given the best NATO has in terms of armor and artillery and superior aircraft, drones, anti tank and anti air weapons, body armour etc but all of that is only good on an open battlefield of maneuver, maybe if they had it at the start of the invasion.
Perhaps the Ukrainians need to change strategy, rather than attacking dug in Russian postions in dombass or crimea they need to attack where the Russian military is light like Belarus or Northern Ukraine.

[Soteris]

Modern technology favors the attacker, Ukraine however is not a modern battlefield. Once Ukraine gets some F16s then maybe we could start to consider this more seriously but one of the biggest problems for both sides has been the lack of equipment, much less modern equipment.

Do not mistake yourself that Ukraine has been given "the best NATO has". The equipment given to Ukraine is pretty much all 30 years out of date and a few generations behind what NATO is fielding. Even the F16 first flew in 1974. The newest piece of equipment sent to Ukraine to my knowledge would be the Archer artillery system and they only have a handful of those.

This is kind of the problem for Russia though. NATO has not even begun to send Ukraine "the good stuff" (and there is a debate to as if they will) but Russia has already exhausted its initial advantage. That means that Russia has stagnated, if not regressed in its equipment and capability where as Ukraine has the potential to grow through outside assistance.

The longer this war goes on, the more powerful Ukraine will grow and at some point they will even begin to do things like gain air superiority at which point Ukraine might actually be able to employ real NATO tactics.

[Drewtate]

@Soteris not at all. Since the mid 60s the arrival of radar guided anti aircraft missiles and various anti tank missile systems has meant modern combat favours the defender. As the decades went on this has increased more and more in the defenders favour. This was first shown in the Vietnam Air war and then in Yom kippur war. This is why the US airforce invested in the F117 as seen in the Gulf War and intervention in Kosovo and invasion of Iraq. The F117 along with electronic warfare aircraft had to go in and take out all the enemies radar systems, power stations, anti air missile batteries etc so us F16s, F18s, F14s, F15s, A10s apaches, Cobras could operate over enemy territory giving fighter cover and close air support against enemy armor and anti-tank postions.
The Ukrainians don't have any stealth aircraft or EW aircraft. The F16 if it crosses into Russian held territory would be easily shot down by Russian anti-aircraft missiles. It would be a blood bath. It's the same with tanks. Doesn't matter how many Abrahams or leopard tanks the Ukrainians get, it will never be enough to break through Russian defences. NATO tactics are not assault dug in fortified postions in WW1 style assaults but to instead strike where the enemy is weakest and exploit that. The F16 will allow Ukraine to replace its mig29s and be able to defend its airspace better.

[Drewtate]

@Soteris What Ukraine is getting is the best of what NATO has and everything else nato has lying around. The f15 and Abrahams tank is predominantly what the regular us military has currently and there are a lot of them even just sitting in storage, there's a lot of parts for them. Most of what Ukraine has been given by nato forces is better than what the Russians have.
Anyway the donbass will be an absolute meat grinder for the Ukrainians, the only option is to try to go around it and strike into Russia herself or just wait ten years for a change in Russian leadership. Ukraine's real chance to defeat Russia was before they retreated into the donbass out on the open field.