Are Russia's days numbered in Ukraine with the arrival of NATO main battle tanks on the battlefield?

[Leopard23]

[BCA6010]

The tanks aren't going to make much of an impact on their own, especially without any kind of recovery vehicles sent with them - as soon as Ukraine so much as breaks something on those tanks, they're going to be abandoned or dragged into position as a roadblock. o

This is not an accident either - the entire NATO strategy of "supporting" Ukraine really appears to be about dragging it out as long as possible to drain Russia over time.

Also for what it's worth regarding what's going on in that war:

"Ukraine is kicking Russia's ass"

"Ukraine desperately needs more tanks"

and "The tanks won't be delivered until near the end of the year" (all of these are said regularly by the warhawks) are basically three contradictory statements that can't coexist, and betray the fact you're being lied to about how the war is going.

[Leopard23]

We don't know what recovery vechiles are going.

[BCA6010]

Exactly zero unless the Germans plan on sending some. Allegedly they are supposed to receive 8 M88s, but nobody credible is saying from where. If it's not Germany, then it's going to take even longer to get everything over there since they're even harder to transport than the Abrams.

[Leopard23]

Better than nothing. I'm sure they are getting some Leopard tanks recovery vechiles too.

[BCA6010]

The Germans also use the M88 for recovering Leopards. To elaborate though, the Ukrainians will almost certainly be receiving the German and Polish Leopards well before the Abrams tanks get there, so if they aren't getting those M88s with the Leopards... They will probably lose all of them one way or another beforehand. NATO tanks are not novice-friendly, and when I was at Bliss, it was pretty normal for multiple tanks and IFVs to be effectively out of action for several hours or days at best (in some cases weeks or months) just doing basic training exercises. We had one gunnery in particular in which 11 out of 14 company tracks went down in three days. That was just a gunnery range. Ukraine will have to rely on other tanks of the same type (A T72 can't recover an Abrams or Leopard) dragging broken tanks back to maintenance areas, effectively taking two tanks out of action in the process without having M88s and maintenance crews that are basically trained from the ground up, and that's not an overnight process either.

[Leopard23]

I'm not sure but the Abrahams are probably already in Europe. It's like when the British gave those 14 challengers, they aren't coming from the UK there was already 14 deployed to Poland

[BCA6010]

Not quite - whenever the US sells Abrams tanks to anyone, even our actual allies, we retrofit them by stripping down and swapping out the entire armor package, and probably some other systems. These get drawn from the ~4000 we have in storage, and in this case, they have to find 31 of them that are fully mission capable (FMC) before even starting the process. The Abrams is a maintenance whore, so realistically they're realling having to find the ones that need the least work done to get moving. Our own government is saying 5 months is the most optimistic timeline, which means it'll probably be longer, and the tanks they're drawing from probably aren't in Europe.

[Lliam]

The tanks will make no difference. Russia is right on Ukraine's border. Logistics are on Russia's side. And it has very sophisticated weaponry.

Those who are using Ukraine to push Russia into a war are completely insane. We're talking Dr. Strangelove.

[Leopard23]

Russia has been having logistical problems from day one. Even at the height of their powers in the days of the soviet union they struggled in Afghanistan despite it being on their boarder.

[purplepoppy]

No, tanks are easy targets and will be taken out pretty quickly. But it does send a message to Putin the west is prepared to escalate.

[Leopard23]

Tanks are not easy targets. In fact they are tough targets. Trying to take a shot at a nato tank is akin to a suicide mission

[Exterminatore]

Russian tanks are easy targets. Old technology. Their doctrine is to mass produce tanks, but those tanks are crap compared to NATO tanks.

[XXblack88]

It's hard to say. It seems like as soon as one starts getting the upper hand the other eventually throws a curveball.

[GoodGuyBreakingBad]

It's hard to say because Russia has so many weapons but it remains to see just what Russia can do.

[Leopard23]

Possibly. But you see Ukrainian soldiers going in with kevlar helmets and body armour while the Russians are going in with 1970s steel helmets and no armor.

[GoodGuyBreakingBad]

Yeah, not good to go in with late 70s gear on not good
at all.

[Leopard23]

A buddy of mine got shot in Iraq from an AK47, caught two in the chest and walked away with fractured ribs. It didn't even take Jim out of action that day. The guy that shot him died from a single shot, no body armor.

[RealMarek]

Not enough tanks, no air cover, not enough supporting artillery. Tanks are only useful in an offensive when supported by combined arms. Tanks are vulnerable to artillery, of which Russia has a huge number. Ukraine had thousands of tanks when this war began. 200-300 more, if they receive them (various countries including the US are slow pedaling or reneging) will not change the outcome of the war.

[Leopard23]

Tanks are vulnerable to accurate artillery which does not describe Russian artillery. Tanks themselves are mobile artillery platforms. Every Russian artillery gun, every Russian tank, helicopter and plane has been accounted for.

[RealMarek]

Russian artillery is more accurate that expected due to spotting with drones. If Russian artillery were ineffective, Ukraine would still have the thousands of tanks it had at the beginning of the war. Why do they need more tanks? That question proves the point.

[Leopard23]

Russian artillery isn't as effective as it could be hence why they are reverting to ww2 style artillery barrages to hit anything. Russian drones, helicopters and planes aren't able to fly over the battlefield hence why the Russians need artillery.
The tanks Ukraine had were the same obsolete tanks the Russians had, T72s from the cold war.

[RealMarek]

You are right about the reliance on artillery. The Russians knew that air defense systems would limit the utility of aviation, so artillery would be king. Compared with western artillery systems that are fragile, complex, and difficult to repair, the Russians sacrifice a bit of quality to deploy massive numbers of rugged, easy to repair, artillery systems. Quantity has a quality of its own. There is nothing magic about an abrams or leopard 2 that will withstand a hit from an atgm or artillery shell.

[Leopard23]

Western artillery pieces and field guns are hard wearing, designed to be modular and mobile and not so complex, the munitions may be complex depending compared to Russian designs bit the big difference is that thanks to NATO intelligence the Ukrainians can fire more accurately and use less shells and rockets than the Russians despite Russian artillery outranging any field gun or rocket artillery system in the nato inventory. I mean nato artillery pieces are stuff thats designed to be dropped on a moutain top or hill close to the line and fired for months at the vietcong, taliban, ISIS etc. Basically nato tells the Ukrainian artillery exactly where to fire, to adjust the fire and whether the target was destroyed, no ww1or 2 style artillery barrages in the hopes of hitting a target.
An Abrahams or leopard would survive a hit from an artillery round and most artillery rockets, indirect fire from artillery is generally ineffective against tanks, unless it's direct fire from a heat round on open sites from an artillery gun but then the Abrahams and Leopard would be close to being able to shoot themselves.
The problem with the atgmis is range. They will be spotted by Leopard and Abrahams tank columns long before they get a chance to fire at least in the open field. Leopard and m1 Abrahams and challenger tanks have long had countermeasures against these. NATO armour from the tank all the way down to APCs all have thermal optics, motion trackers, nightvision, telescopic sights, there's nowhere for the infantry to hide anymore. If a atgmis fires at you, he reveals his postion so all an Abrahams does is return fire at the operator so he has to take cover and loses control of the missile.

[Leopard23]

Russia has some good atgmis systems but like a lot of good modern Russian equipment they don't have the quantity. Even if you look at something as simple as acog sights on the basic assault rifle or even basic kevelar body armoutr and helmets Russia has them but in no quantity meanwhile the west are giving Ukraine this equipment in huge quantities for nothing as its all gets replaced anyhow in the west, every us soldier in 2000 had an m4/m16 with an acog site, kevelar body armor and helmet and that was 23 years ago and it's just being handed over to Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukrainians are being given quality equipment in huge quantity.

[RealMarek]

My impression of the targeting provided by the US is similar to yours. I think the Russians have mitigated this somewhat by using drones to target their artillery strikes. I think that NATO artillery is proving much more susceptible to damage from shrapnel than Russian artillery. There have been reports of Ukrainian soldiers complaining about this, especially with the M-777. In the end, events on the ground will play out and we’ll understand in hindsight what was reality and what was propaganda..

[Leopard23]

Russian drones are being shot down like their aircraft.
If your artillery piece is getting damaged by shrapnel it means someone is shooting at you, when Ukrainians are in postion to shell Russian artillery they hit them

[OfMiceandMen]

I equate the Russian oligarchs to a bunch of henchmen/mobsters and would prefer to see them fall on their face.

Even though Russia has serious weaponry and power, the Ukranian people keep hitting back. I hope it ends soon in a draw/peace.

However, if Russia does take over the Ukraine, a good majority of countries throughout the world will likely boycott Russia for many years to come, so I think they will suffer most "business-wise" over time.

[Dargil]

Unfortunately not. Someone ought to broker peace talks and end this mess.

[Leopard23]

If Russia keeps crimea and dombass its sets the precedent in post war Europe where a country like Russia can bully and take what it wants from its neighbours

[Dargil]

I love my country and am a MAGA patriot. However, Democrats and Republican NeoCons have a lot of fault for this war.

[WellGreetingsISay]

I sure hope so. No need for Russia to completely crumble, their citizens don't deserve that. But the war being over, would be a good thing.

[menina]

Unfortunately I don't these tanks will make a difference. I would like to see this war ending but it seems that it's not going to be over anytime soon.

[NamerOfStars]

If NATO involvement in the war keeps escalating, ALL our days are numbered.

[Anonymous]

You're making the assumption of no further escalation. Russia's days were ALWAYS numbered in Ukraine. The only thing that was ever up debate was the occupation, how long, and the death toll.

[Guy13]

Russia will always be in the Ukraine.

[Leopard23]

Until they are booted out

[Guy13]

They will never be booted out the same way China will never be booted out of Taiwan. Political influence is great.

[Leopard23]

China does not rule Taiwan last I checked, they would like to.
Russia's political influence over former Russian states and Warsaw pact countries is wanning. That's why they've invaded them so many times over the last few years and why they are in Ukraine in the first place.

[Guy13]

I have friends in Warsaw Albania who think differently 🤷🏻‍♂️

[justFriend]

Russia > NATO

[halfroots]

Hopefully

[Orion76]

The Russians 70s helmets is all propaganda and if they are using them because they still work this isn’t the 40s the weapons that decides who wins in the end you don’t need a helmet is Russias army is such bullshit like other countries that gets out of line and next day we are all over it like Iraq and Syria Egypt’s etc. let’s hope they don’t push Russia to show some force it’s not gonna be good for anyone.

[Orion76]

Iraq did the same and we went in burned it down and hung their president on live TV lol

[Leopard23]

@Orion76 so you say Russian steel helmets still work but they don't need them? Steel helmets might work against shrapnel but they won't stop a 7.62 or 5.56 round that's why you see every NATO soldier wears a kevlar helmet of some type because they work so much better than a steel one.
Iraq invaded Kuwait after Iraq was kind of broke from the Iran-Iraq war, saddam thought he could corner the oil market and raise the price up until then he was our boy. Now whether Sadam was tricked into invading Kuwait is another matter. If you ever want to know what happened or is going on you look at how it benefits the US governance.
Russia has been shown to be weak in Ukraine, the war should be over by now.

[Orion76]

I’m saying don’t believe everything you hear in was propaganda is a major factor

[Leopard23]

@Orion76 i agree. There's been a lot of propaganda about the capability of the Russian military in the west for some years now and going by their performance in Ukraine its all bullshit, of course the Russians were happy to go along with it. Same story during the cold war where the US government propagated the lie about the bomber gap with the soviet union when really the US had more bombers and they knew that the soviet only had a few bombers and had them circling red square on may day parades to make it seem they had ten times what they really had.

[Orion76]

Some truth to that but that’s not why nobody sent troops to attack Russia the real reason is Russias contingency plan which is very real and very well maintained the money they were supposed to be spend on the gear you mentioned was spent on maintaining the dead hand operation just like our money was spent on sadams gallows and broomstick to the ass in Lydbia

[Orion76]

I should really stay away from politics I have seen war first hand and I won’t wish it for anyone we can set and speculate all we want the only truth that is some innocent men women and children are being killed.

[Leopard23]

@Orion76 Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be a kin to throwing your own shit at your neighbours, sure you get them but your hands are covered in shit.

[Orion76]

I wasn’t talking about Ukraine I was saying the reason why o
Propaganda is used against Russia VS going there and give them some spanking

[Leopard23]

@Orion76 well this is a more cost effective way of fighting Russia.

[Exterminatore]

I’m pretty sure.