Why is nobody making progress in the Ukraine war?

[robocop666]

They have been in the same position for like 2 years now.

[RebelinSteel]

Some of it is down to corruption within Russia and yes men. They thought they had more tanks and especially spares, which it turns out both were wrong. When you consider Russia was so strong in weapons but are forced to use T-55 tanks…. That really says something. Another big reason is the Ukrainian army has been trained by NATO (mainly the UK) from 2014 to the latest invasion. This changed the Ukrainians method of fighting down to Sergeant / Corporal squad levels, rather than the Russian senior officer led levels the Russians use. Other than Wagner, Russian NCOs are not allowed the same autonomy as NATO troops. This makes actual fighting and control simpler. The Russian weapons and tactics were not really battle tested, people looked at how NATO troops fought in Afghanistan etc, and assumed their weapons and tactics would be the same, however NATO is designed for fighting Russia and guess what, their weapons work really well at killing Russians, what a surprise. Russia has the numbers but is trying hard not to conscript from Moscow or St Petersburg, Ukraine have better forces but very limited numbers. Also in the beginning the Russians did not fully understand EMCon and suffered for it with senior officers killed. If Ukraine does fall, the Russians will be in Moldova next (there are already problems there) and Hungary will help support any Serbia moves on Kosovo. A bit like WW1 the Russians want the Balkans to be looking towards Russia.

[Soteris]

Pretty simple. Russia is super weak so they can't make any meaningful progress and Ukraine does not have enough equipment so they can't either. It is much easier to defend than attack so both sides can do that fairly successfully and Russia has a lot more to lose than Ukraine does so they can afford to push in more people and equipment if they want to stop a Ukrainian attack or to capture a town or two like Avdivka but at an extremely high cost.

In essence, both armies are incredibly dysfunctional but for different reasons. Ukraine is fighting well but does not have the tools to go on the offensive and Russia is simply incompetent and their stuff dont work right.

[robocop666]

ok this is interesting. How do you know this?

[Soteris]

I have followed this war since before it even started. I was aware when Russia was massing its troops on the Ukrainian border (not the first time they did it either) and that this time was different since they were bringing perishable resources like medicine with them that would expire which is something you do not do when you are just posturing and faking.

I was however of the opinion that Russia would not invade, based on my understanding of the Russian military power at the time which was very poor. I theorized that Russia did not in fact have enough military power to successfully invade Ukraine. I was proven correct. It is important to note that the invasion is the easy part, the hard part is after you "won" the war and have to occupy the country. Think USA in Afghanistan and Iraq.

I knew Russia could not win the occupation and would have to go home empty handed, hence why I thought Russia ALSO knew they could not win and therefore would not invade. Guess they knew themselves worse than I knew them.

Anyways, back on topic. While I thought Ukraine would win this war, I underestimated Ukraines motivation and ability to fight. They have proven themselves and gotten ridiculous ratios like one Ukrainian death for every 3 to 15 Russians depending on where on the line you look. Ukraine also have more troops currently than Russia and arguably better training since Russias actual professional troops keeps dying.

[Soteris]

That said, while Ukraine has the manpower and the will to fight they have been held back by the lack of equipment. Most notably Artillery and air power. Some of that has been compensated for by drones but Ukraine could quite happily shoot 10 times more artillery shells than they do today if given the ammo as an example.

Russia on the other hand has basically shown that their military is not a serious organization. The corruption runs deep which means that every level is affected and simply does not work as it should. The commanders are not selected for their ability to lead troops, the equipment is inferior or simply stolen, the troops do not get any training because the people in charge of training either do not know how to or takes the money and put it into their pockets.

The thing that has kept Russia in the war so far has been the willingness to sacrifice lives and their old soviet stockpiles of equipment. The problem is that both these are finite. Putin can't really afford a normal conscription so ironically Ukraine probably has more potential troops than Russia has even though they have much more population. As for the stockpiles, they are obviously taking the best preserved and highest quality first. That means the longer the war goes on the worse quality the equipment Russia will be using.

As such, comparatively speaking Ukraine is simply growing in strength as they keep getting new equipment from their allies as well as train more troops where as Russia is growing weaker with fresh recruits without good equipment or training having to replace the previous professional army that Russia had before the war.

[BCA6010]

That's not entirely true - it's been very back and forth but across a relatively small area, much like World War 1. This is in large part because Ukraine doesn't have the resources to commit to an effective offensive without giving up ground elsewhere, and Russia doesn't seem to have the command infrastructure to coordinate, though battles of attrition heavily favor Russia. When last I saw a comprehensive report (about a month ago) Russia was still holding 99.5% of the territory they seized in the initial invasion, it's now pretty common knowledge that Ukraine is lying about their own losses, and even their victories through omission. This is what happens when basically all coverage is full throttled propaganda favoring one side or the other, yet hundreds of thousands of people are dying for nothing more than egos and pocketbooks.

[jshm2]

Because it isn't really a war, but a money pit.

The West wants to sell all it's dud/old weapons for a profit. The Russians want to put their foot down on the West crawling further East, while making it expensive as possible.

Think the Russians are regretting not starting earlier.

[robocop666]

why do Russia want to make it as expensive as possible?

[Astarlessnightsky]

That way western arms companies make shitton of money.

[robocop666]

Oh yeah lots and lots of money. The first delivery (I think it was 350,000,000 worth of arms) was destroyed by Russian missiles. So they needed more weaponry. Being a USA arms manufacturer would make you a lot of money now.

[KostasKouvalis]

Zelenskyy has realized that if he keeps the war going, he can continue to extort money from Uncle Joe and fatten his wallet. And Putin's arsenal and military wasn't as strong as he wanted everyone to think, now his bluff has been called and he knows if he flinches, he's finished.

We're dealing with two insecure men with overinflamed egos.

[OtterMan68]

Russia's forces were overrated.
Ukraine never had much of an army to begin with.
Ukraine is defending its territory, so they have more to fight for. Russians are away from home, and I'd wager many don't want to be fighting in a foreign country, but it's their job.

[standardguy]

Because the USA and the EU are artificially prolonging the war between Ucraina and Russia. Normally Russia have had won after three months and there would have been peace already.

[gorydetails]

Because we keep artificially propping up Ukraine to the detriment of our treasury.

[KrakenAttackin]

I have to admit I am surprised. I thought the Russians wound have rolled through the Ukraine like the Red Army once did Germany.

[Twalli]

Because Russia refuses to acknowledge that it's a lost cause.

[slatyb]

They are entrenched at the front.

[noohair]

Actually the Russians had a mojor victory lately.