What will the outcome of the 2024 election boil down to?

[MisterWack]

Reason why I ask is we’ve seen the Fox News polls now that Joe Biden stepped out of the race, Trump & Vance’s unwillingness to do a debate against Harris and the fact that Republicans don’t seem to want Trump to step down for a younger more capable leader which allows Kamala Harris to gain the upper-hand.

What do you think?

Joe Biden stepping out of the race - causes Harris to win. 💙

JD Vance Pick & Trump’s Cognitive Issues - Causes Harris to Win. 💙

Refusal to debate - Harris to win. 💙

Refusal for Trump to step down - Harris to win. 💙

Kamala Harris’ Laugh - Trump wins ❤️

Kamala Harris’ Soft Southern Border Handling - Trump wins ❤️

Kamala Harris’ Controversial Prosecutor History - Trump wins ❤️

[Caroline91]

I think it is a hard call. I do think the Vance pick is likely to be a major factor, as well as the fact that Trump's own age is highlighted by the absence of President Biden. I think a lot of people will find Harris' laughter and general relaxed approach, as well as the way she speaks so conversationally very appealing. The real issues will be the border and her record as a prosecutor. In those areas, if the Dems manage to get out information putting those issues in proper context, it could change public perception. They should also emphasize what Trump did at the border with separating children from their families with no tracking system for them to be returned.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/ANKgKn0paMM

[Caroline91]

And.. https://www. pbs. org/newshour/show/how-a-trump-era-policy-that-separated-thousands-of-migrant-families-came-to-pass

[MisterWack]

Thank you for your insight on this important election season.

[goaded]

www.pbs.org/.../how-a-trump-era-policy-that-separated-thousands-of-migrant-families-came-to-pass Hopefully FTFY.

Showing humanity to immigrants, but also wanting to speed up the process is the right way to go, in my opinion.

Prosecutor vs. Felon is a good sound bite, too.

[dustybiker2]

Trump keeps shooting himself with his choices and behaviors. Pun intended. Popularity is not in his favor.

[DrPepper12]

If you really want to determine who is going to win, ask the bookies!

Bet365:

Donald Trump -175, Kamala Harris +137

Bovada:

Donald Trump -165, Kamala Harris +130

BetOnline:

Donald Trump -145, Kamala Harris +130

Oddschecker:

Donald Trump -141, Kamala Harris +158.

So far it's Trump extremely marginally.

[MisterWack]

@DrPepper12 Thank you for your insight, honestly I believe Kamala Harris will win based on the key factor of Registered Voters concerns tied Biden’s Age & Trump’s Behavior. Biden stepped out of the race so, now the focus is on old slow Donnie and his monstrous deplorable rhetoric that we’ve seen time n time again. People aren’t dumb, we’ve seen January 6th Select Committee’s findings & evidence & explanation & Republicans coming forward against former Pres. and his self serving goons of associates. Then compare that to the legislative victories with Biden & Harris to see what a Kamala Harris Administration may look like and act like which has potential over the lack luster Trump Administration.
Kamala Harris has key endorsements like the Union leader & the Obama family & the current President & also Trump himself via multiple checks to her Attorney General campaign for reelection from Donald & Ivanka Trump. Kamala Harris can and will win this!

[BCRanger10]

What cognitive issues is Trump having?

At any rate, I think it will be some combination of the bottom three items. I think Trump will still win. Maybe not by as much as if he were still running against Biden, but I think Trump will get it.

[MisterWack]

You’re kidding right?
Trump claiming Nikki Haley was in charge of security when he meant Nancy Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi actually wasn’t even in charge of security.
Trump saying his VP’s name as “JD Mandel”.
Trump claiming Biden will get us into World War Two, that he beat Obama in a debate, there were Airports during the Revolutionary War during his presidency. “Take a look at the oranges of the investigation, the beginnings…. The oranges”.

“We have to keep our country gay uh buh but, its not I mean… for some reason its just not great anymore”.

“Never fight up hill me boys, never fight up hill…. They fought up hill”.

“I was private business people”
“I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute, is there some way we can do something like that by injection inside…”

Suggesting we should drop nuclear weapons on hurricanes as they formed over Africa to stop them from coming here (not how weather or nukes work).

[BCRanger10]

No, I'm not. I mean, I can admit that a lot of these are face-palming, eye-rolling bits, but having listened Trump's performance in the debate and other speeches and clips, I think this can be easily attributed to misspeaking (as people do) or simple factual inaccuracies. Add in that Donald Trump is clearly a scatter-brain and yes, to a certain degree, maybe even his age, and you have instances like these. To say that Trump is "cognitively impaired" is a wild overstatement.

Not that I have much incentive to believe the media's spin on things like these anyway, given how the media has lied for years about Joe Biden's mental state.

And come on, you don't really think Trump is serious about nuking hurricanes, do you? Trump has a sense of humor. People might not like it and it sometimes gets him in trouble, but he does. Besides, if you read Randall Munroe's book "What If..." (which you should anyway; it's hilarious... and quite informative too), people have been asking that question to the NOAA for decades, as far back as 1961. Here's one article about it... https://www. pnj. com/story/weather/hurricanes/2023/05/09/hurricane-season-2023-hurricane-versus-nuke/70183718007/

And here's the NOAA's own webpage. In their own words, "needless to say, this is not a good idea."... https://www. aoml. noaa. gov/hrd-faq/#Stop

[RedInnocent69]

Some combination of the first four. #HarrisWins

[MisterWack]

@RedInnocent69 Agreed, mainly wanted to see the contributing factors along the board as to the how & why & who sort of thing…
I believe it is all because Biden dropped out because tied concerns were Biden Age & Trump Behavior once you remove Biden’s Age you are left with Trump’s Age & Behavior which loses.

[goaded]

You also have Biden's character. Biden is willing to give up the presidency before he thought he should have to for the good of the country. Trump sells over-priced shoes, because he's a billionaire.

[gorydetails]

Why the fuck should Trump step down? He doesn't have dementia. Camela doesn't have the upper hand on him? She's wholly unlikeable and has been an abject failure at her job as Border Czar (the only task they even assigned to her).

[Massageman]

Thank you.

[MisterWack]

Let’s say Trump were to accept the debate…..
Then hypothetically Kamala Harris wins it.

Trump is fearing that if he were to lose, there would be calls for him to step down due to old age & cognitive decline like Biden had to do. Biden unquestionably united the Democratic Party and in the span of one week Fox News polls showcase in swing states that Kamala Harris is more favorable by Trump & $200 million raised by grassroots donors (most for the first time), and Kamala Harris even said “If you have something to say, say it to my face!”.

Trump is at a position of terror (I’ve been keeping up with his Truth Social posts) why else is Trump’s argument “I can’t accept debate since she isn’t nominee”? Biden wasn’t the nominee, answer: Defeating Biden is easy, this is harder.

[gorydetails]

@misterwackHe wouldn't lose to Camela. Not the least bit harder to beat the must unlikeable VP ever who got 0 delegate votes in 2020. This enthusiasm for Camela is 100% fake.

[goaded]

Do you really think mispelling the VP's name is clever?

[gorydetails]

@goaded I'm helping you tools pronounce it correctly.

[goaded]

No, you're just being a dick, as usual.

[gorydetails]

@goaded Share how upset you are when it’s feeling sharing time on the next white dudes for Camela call.

[normalice]

Republicans using their disproportionate influence over the media to successfully discouraging democratic-leaning voters from showing up to vote.

[SugarSugarplum]

@normalice LOL yeah.

CNN, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, New Your Times, Washington Post are all liberal
Fox is moderate/slightly conservative.

Sure, let's go with the delusion that the RIGHT owns the media.

[normalice]

Since citizens united they been increasingly exposing their viewers to headlines and opinions it benefits the right to expose to the center.

[SugarSugarplum]

I have no idea what any of that means. I haven't heard the words "Citizens United" since I was a little girl.

[normalice]

Yep. It has become the media's bread and butter, as intended. They know to keep their mouths shut about it.

[SugarSugarplum]

Still have no idea what you're talking about.

[normalice]

Have you heard of PACs? Or SuperPACs?

[goaded]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijxvjL7KJlk

[strateguy632]

Democrats don't vote fir women. She will get a few anti trumpers but a trump landslide... unless they put dean philips.

[exitseven]

her record as failed border czar. Also how effective the RNC is on stopping voter fraud.

[Anonymous]

Genocide
Harris wins and that's what happens