Do you expect Republicans to lock on Senate for many years to go?

[Cubus]

Republicans flipped 4 senate seats this election (West Virginia, Montana, Ohio and probably Pennsylvania) increasing their share to 53 seats. West Virginia, Montana and Ohio are safe red states and these 3 states are probably lost for Democrats at least untill the next reallignment. This leaves Democrats with a need to flip 4 seats to have a majority. The case is - there are very few pickup possibilities left for them, as they already control most seats in swing seats.

Only one Republican is representating a Senate seat in a state that Harris won - Susan Collins in Maine.

Only two Republicans represent a Senate seat in a state that Trump won by less than 3 points - Ron Johnson in Wisconsin and (this years' flip) David McCormick in Pennsylvania.

If we expand it a little further then we also have North Carolina (a state Trump won by 3,4%) that has two Republican senators.

That is 52-48 seats for Democrats. AT BEST.

Not too mention Democrats already hold the vast majority of the remaining swing senate seats: both seats in Nevada, both seats in Arizona, both seats in Georgia, both seats in Michigan, one seat in Wisconsin and one seat in Pennsylvania. If Republicans recapture all of them, they can have a maximum of whooping 63 seats - enough to break the fillibuster.

This could be serious outcomes for Democrats. Not only they would not be ables to pass most of their agenda through Senate, but also Senate confirms Supreme Court nominations. If a Democrat is elected president in near future, he/she would not be able to appoint a left-wing judge to Supreme Court as a Republican-controlled Senate would block it, like after the death of Antonin Scalia.

What do you think?

[CalmUntilAbused]

Your analysis sounds precise enough, but this is democracy we are talking about. The one to capture the minds of people wins. And the one who has captured the minds of people in the USA recently is President-elect Donald Trump. However, he made some big promises on His way to achieve that. Some of those were probably not really necessary in order to achieve that, but once they were made, they are valid. One of President-elect Donald Trump's most incredible promises was to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. I cannot realistically see even Him achieving this in such a short timespan. I suppose most of His voters do not expect Him to, either, but if this matter gets too far out of hand, people will grow distrustful of Him - and of Republicans as a whole. The problem is, most people in the USA want this war gone, not just because it's inhuman, but also because it yields an average American no gain. Those who don't want it can mostly be found within the military industry complex, mainly in the Lockheed Martin corporation, but with some luck, the clandestine US agencies can enroll the help of the Boeing's Employee of the Year to take care of that. That's assuming they're on President-elect Donald Trump's side, and that is unlikely, given the amount of attempts on His life when He was still just a presidential candidate that simply should not even happen if they put in the work to trample them.

The Democrats will spend the next four years doing what the left wing is the best at - sewing dissent, dividing people, attempting to compromise conservative beliefs... President-elect Donald Trump's decisions regarding a wide array of policies will have to be swift and correct - two qualities that rarely accompany each other - if He wants to counteract this clandestine attempt to make Him fall put of favour with the US citizens.

Therefore... I sure hope You're right, and raw data-wise, it sure looks like You're right, but the looming threat is not yet over, and I would not underestimate the left wing's capability to divide people and incite internal conflicts.

[OlderAndWiser]

Sounds good to me!

[OlderAndWiser]

Thanks for MHO!

[Cubus]

you're Welcome

[Gwendoline]

If they deliver on the big issues they made promises on. I think Americans have had enough.

[Lucy68]

That's a good question

[NamerOfStars]

Not likely- 53-47 is hardly an unbreakable lead, especially when you look at WHO, specifically, got elected, and the turmoil the GOP platform is in. Plus, the odds are that the Republicans will do something stupid to piss off the voter base, and turn people against them. It may last a cycle or two, but it won't hold in the long term.

It's also possible that the Democrats, or at least some notable portion of them, will back down from the bigoted insanity that's come to characterize the party in the last several years, and adopt more moderate positions- or put forward more moderate candidates- and that'll bring votes- and seats- back. And that's good; frequent turnaround keeps political figures from getting complacent- well, some of them, anyway. But shifts in attitudes over time are a reasonable and healthy thing for a country.

Remember that despite winning the popular vote, Trump got LESS votes than in 2020; a LOT of people were angry enough at Biden and Kamala to not bother voting.

[Cubus]

Which Senate seats do you realistically see flipping? The only ones are Collins in Maine, Johnson in Wisconsin and two seats in North Carolina.

[NamerOfStars]

It all depends on what happens next. Many Republicans seem to be thinking that everything's going to magically turn around now, but it's not that simple- it's NEVER that simple.

[Hispanic-Cool-Guy]

No. There's only two main political parties to choose from.

The senate and house seats are lost and won through election cycles.

Obama had both the senate and house majority but eventually lost it and so it will be with Republicans.

I do expect the Republican party to win the White House to more consecutive times though after Trump.

The Democrat party has been in the White House for most of the 2000's, now is going to be the Republicans turn then it will switch back the Democrats.

[Hispanic-Cool-Guy]

* two

[Cubus]

Which Senate seats do you realistically see flipping? The only ones are Collins in Maine, Johnson in Wisconsin and two seats in North Carolina.

[Hispanic-Cool-Guy]

I have no idea what's going on about that.

[DrPepper12]

Yes. MAGA will ALWAYS have an advantage when LA county has more people than 17 states!! Long past time to make PR & DC states.
Better yet, eliminate the Senate.

[Cubus]

Why do Democrats believe that PuertoRico would be safe blue? Latinos moved massively to the right in the last few years.

[DrPepper12]

Forget red or blue. They're taxed without reps! Granted the no income tax thing is pretty cool...

[exitseven]

I do not expect anything. Trump knows he has 4 years to get a lot done He is already getting things ready for his inauguration