I rarely get political but I'm really curious what all of you think?

[Beckybooboo]

Friends of mine were talking today about what is going on between Iran and Israel, one of them said, while China depends on Iran for oil, they wouldn't exactly lose sleep if Iran gets their nuclear capability destroyed and that Russia just sees them as a middle east ally but doesn't really want them to have nuclear capability either. One also said, if either country wanted them to have nuclear weapons, Iran would have them. I'm far from being a geopolitical expert lol but from what I've noticed, China and Russia have been kind of quiet on the issue. What are your thoughts?

[Syntosi]

None of Russia, China and Iran are friends. They cooperate at times because of shared interests and enemies but they are also actively working against each other at the same time. China has been the biggest bully between them recently, especially since Russia got stuck in Ukraine which has allowed China to for example outright steal Russian territory and bully Russia into selling oil and incredibly high discounts to China.

As such both Russia and China do speak out against what is happening to Iran but only when it clearly benefits themselves. Its a fully transactional friendship and right now Iran can't offer that much so Russia and China would have no problem donning their best black outfit and cry fake tears at Irans funeral for sympathy points if it came to that.

Obviously, this would not be the outcome that either Russia or China would want but they dont want an alternative badly enough to lift too many fingers in the effort to stop it.

[Beckybooboo]

That's basically what I heard today lol You put in words better than I did. Someone actually compared it to the US and Russia in WW11. They basically share a common enemy but weren't exactly allies or something similar.

[Syntosi]

Its hard to compare anything to any of the world wars but at a very surface level it does get across how you can cooperate with someone you normally could not stand.

Perhaps it is also worth bringing up that countries do not have "friends" in the first place. The "western nations" are friendly with each other because of mutual interests and benefits. If the situation changes then they will happily backstab everyone else but the rewards would have to be very high to outweigh such a long "friendship".

A practical example of this happened after the United Kingdom left the EU with Brexit. The UK government at the time was fairly incompetent so they did not prepare their negotiation teams to establish new trade agreements. Because the teams were far too small and inexperienced (the UK used to rely on the combined teams from the EU to handle this) they could not keep up with similar teams from other nations and the UK got figuratively murdered on the trade deals it has signed since.

The UK-Australia trade deal was so bad that the Australian news papers openly taunted them after it was signed.

Basically, if your nation is not going to help itself then your friends are not going to do it for you. Allied nations only treat each other fairly because they are both equally ruthless. The only difference with "enemy" nations is that you might be more willing to use extreme measures like assassinations or hacking to get your way.

[Beckybooboo]

I brought up Russia because in school we were taught they were our allies, which I found odd, since during my life time they've always been our advisories. Then I'd watch documentaries (after highschool) about how Gen. Patton begged McCarthy to invade Russia, because he knew they'd be a problem and they weren't actually our allies... I never learned that! I'm just one of many people that appreciate history after I supposedly learned it lol

[Syntosi]

To be fair, Patton was proven wrong since the USSR collapsed without having to invade them and nuclear war did not break out. But yeah, there was no illusions that the Soviet Union was the new enemy after WW2. In fact, you could even argue that dropping the bombs on Japan had less to do with ending the war with Japan and more to do with scaring the crap out of the Soviet Union.

[RavVid]

It was never a reasonable prospect. Russia had 500 rifle divisions in Europe at end of WW2 but the US had 10. Russia had lots of tanks too.

I've seen different numbers but there was a considerable disparity. For this answer I just took what Google AI said.

[Syntosi]

@RavVid The Western forces had around 4-5 million troops on the western front by the end of the war. This is not because they could not deploy more, it was because they did not need to and also because the war was not over since USA had to refocus on fighting the Japanese in the pacific.

At the same time the Soviets had like around 6-7 million troops on their side of Germany.

So while there was a disadvantage its not like it was critical and the Allies definitely had an edge in quality, logistics, navy and airforce. The allies also had the option of starting a 2 front war by invading the Soviet Union from its eastern border and possibly also from below through the middle east.

The allies very well could have destroyed the USSR at that time if they had wanted, even if we ignore the threat of USA dropping more nukes on the soviets to force them to capitulate rather than fight them head-on.

[RavVid]

:) It was a view I heard a few nights ago. I go to sleep listening to podcasts. Probably Nial Ferguson.

Certainly attention diverted to the Pacific war after Germany fell. Your point on atomic bombs is good. Potentially it could have been "Russia, withdraw to your borders please or you'll cop a couple of A bombs".

The US had 3 (used) in '45, 5 in stock '46, 13 (stockpile) in '47, 56 (stockpile) in '48, 169 (stockpile) '49. Russia had it's first in '49. Looks as though there was a brief window of opportunity to just blow them up before they had capacity to retaliate.

[OneViewpoint]

I think you're right. For both China and Russia, Iran is an ally of convenience in the moment, not an ideological BFF. The whole Saudi / Iran religious nonsense is an annoyance just like the Iran / Israeli religious nonsense is an annoyance. Putin has his hands full with Ukraine and is now worried about an expanded NATO. The Chinese prefer to play a quiet long game. They aren't going to stick their neck out and flip over the chess board for Iran. They have no reason to. They have much bigger goals in mind.

Any non super power who starts throwing nukes is committing suicide. And they know it. Including Netanyahu and his Likud Fascists, Pakistan, and North Korea. So far the US is the only country in history to use nukes in anger. Everyone wants to keep it that way.

[jshm2]

You should have laughed at them both for being so ill informed.

Iran is fucking CENTRAL to both Russia and China in many sectors. First thing first Iran does NOT want to make nuclear weapons - it can buy them far cheaper instead if it wanted them. But both the USA and Israel are full of shit on that front. However, "Iran has nukes!" scares old White people, it's a good war promoter - just like it was against Iraq.

As for China and Russia. One reason Russia was largely unaffected by US sanctions, was Iran buying and selling nearly exclusively to it using roubles instead of dollars. Iran was able to get goods to and from the Middle East to Russia and keep it alive.

On the China front, Iran has unique technology and resources that China was able to use to a much fuller advantage than Iran alone could. This is one reason China has been able to supersede the USA so quickly.

Also, where the USA had to invade, subjugate and then rob nations for technology, wealth and resources. China has got technology, wealth and resources by instead working with nations to develop them and fit them into its supply chains.

Hence China and Russia are "quiet" as they feel no need yet to step in.

[Beckybooboo]

Are you saying Iran currently has nukes?

[lightbulb27]

I suspect that be true. I've heard as well of intel brief from Tulsi..."no evidence they have such weapon". That appears to be ignored in favor of Israels "go get those sob's". And so...

Reminds me of this song "I ran... I ran so far away... I just ran... but.. I COULDN'T GET AWAY!!!"

https://www.youtube.com/embed/iIpfWORQWhU

That last part is key. To me this whole thing smells of an opportunity from all those sides to draw the USA into a war to degrade us. Israel wants us involved to set Iran back, for security. Russia/China like to see us fight and get degraded like we did in Iraq... it keeps us busy and takes our focus off of them. Sinks us into debt.

If you've ever had a flock of seagulls fly over your car, you know what kinda mess looks like after that and how a war with Iran would go. Worse than some 80's UK pop. ain't good.

all humor aside. Prayers to the troops on bases (some of which were killed/injured in prior 2 years bombings) and others at sea, at risk, with little rest and a possible "Pearl harbor" moment awaiting. A plane shot down would be a bad day. A ship hit or sunk even worse. Iran has submarines and missiles.

Let's hope cooler heads prevail...

[lightbulb27]

which reminds me of this of my top poems that struck me... about some poor unlucky bastard in prior times... which is reality for someones present because of all this, what is, human emotional turmoil.
www.poetryfoundation.org/.../the-death-of-the-ball-turret-gunner

[Beckybooboo]

I actually really like that song, it's been a LONG time since I've heard it. Definitely 🙏 for all at risk ❤️

[beefcakebradybatson]

GUCK FABBARD !!!

[Nik1hil]

Russia And China Trust IRAN, they Just Don't Trust Islam. IRAN is an Ally Islam isn't.

Last thing you want is to give monkey a Gun.

A cult that is in active conflict with most other religions and Governments around the world. And which has a reputation of Invasions and founded by a Warlords, who's principles conflict with culture of all other nations... Yeah, nobody wants them to have Nukes!..

Best Part is - their Radicals can never get out of their Book, so they will never learn or understand science enough to built a nuke, and if you study Real science enough to be capable of building Nukes, 😂 Your Radicalism will end.

The Flame of Knowledge of science, will make the Darkness of Radicalism Disappear, from you before you can Built a nuke!.

It's amazing How Creation Hid the power of Nuclear Energy, in knowledge of science so Deep that No man with Darkness in their heart can built it!. So they keep sending in mercenaries to built neuclear for them!

[RavVid]

I heard a statement that Russia said hands off Iran to the US and China has sent ammonium perchlorate (an ingredient for rocket fuel) recently and a couple of heavy lifting Chinese airplanes have arrived which were officially going to Lichtenstein but never got there.

I think undoubtedly Russia and China are assisting in some - possibly minor - ways. I think it would be unlikely they would ship some spare nukes over because then Ukraine and Taiwan might be given some too.

Overall It would be to Russian and Chinese advantage that the US is distracted and spread thin by Iran. Curious that Putin said words to the effect that he would cause troubles for the US and then Iran's proxies did indeed cause issues.

If the US does get involved, I hope it limits itself to bombing the shit out of Iran.

[NathanDavis]

your friends are mostly right...

and if either China and/or Russia wanted Iran regime to prevail, they would acted yesterday...

now, if the USA were really worried about the possibility of a nuclear "incident" they would have already acted before yesterday, so

it looks very much like just an exchange of regime... sponsored by the powers that will be...

[Kaneki05]

It's true they don't care in fact in the long run it would be bad for them. As Iran with nukes could turn on Russia/China and gives them more bargaining power. China/Russia would only care about America Invasion of Iran which US aren't doing by bombing Iran, nor funding Israel to do so. Plus China/Russia both do deals with Israel too.

[Anonymous]

If you forget about Israel and even the US Iran has been giving constant bother to its neighbours threatening shipping and sponsoring Islamic terrorism. Even the Taliban has a problem with them. Saudi Arabia is currently fighting a proxy war with them. Publicly all the Muslim countries in the middle east will denounce Israel for attacking Iran but to attack Iran Israel has to cross the airspace of 2-3 Muslim countries and can't do so without their permission. So in reality all these Muslim countries hope Israel and The US flatten Iran. It's a similar thing with the Palestinians, Muslim countries are tired of the Palestinians.

[DryGermanGuy]

China's interest goes near zero and Putin already blamed Iran for not buying enough Russian air defense systems. Besides, Russia has its hands full with fighting Ukraine.

[Beckybooboo]

Honest question on my part, do you think China would care enough to intervene in the war between Israel and Iran if the US dropped a bomb that took out Irans's ability to get nuclear weapons? Like you said, it seems Like China just has zero interest. Almost like they'd be happy lol

[DryGermanGuy]

No, I included that possibility already. China is suppressing their own Muslim minority, they see no advantage in a nuclear armed Iran.

[beefcakebradybatson]

My father, who had a sixth-grade education, once told my sisters and me that should the then-Soviet Union and China align, they'd rule the world. Today, it seem both dictatorships want what one termed a "friendship of steel," I guess meaning a closer partnership. They may see Iran as a rogue state which would be dangerous to the world with nuclear weapons, so they may not mind Israel's and America's destroying Iran's nuclear reactors.

[DJB72]

Despite some issues, China's main foreign trade partner is the USA. Russia has it's hands full in Ukraine. If Coma Joe was still Vegetable in Chief it might be Iran would get the Bomb, but with Trump's unpredictability I doubt anyone will arm them - not for another 4 years, anyway.

[CupcakeTheDestroyer]

This isn’t Russia and China’s fight, they don’t give a shit

[hello4433]

That's exactly what it is 💯. It's non of their business and they know it

[Sevenpointfive]

apparently north korea would help iran. so even if israel/us destroys everything. they can just ask them or buy from them. if they want it, they got it. maybe israel will have to do something about that too?

[exitseven]

I think Russia has its hands full with Ukraine and China is trying to figure out a survival plan if it no longer does business in the US.

[Ariesman81]

I think both Russia and China aren't in a very good position to start more shit. Russia is about maxed out with Ukraine and China is struggling with loss of factories.

[BadApple69]

Everyone including Russia and China know that Iran is a loose cannon and if Iran got a nuke they would absolutely use it, and no one wants that.

[BadApple69]

Iran, its government and its people have chanted death to America and death to Israel….. not hard to believe if they could do serious harm to either country they would.

[virgo2267]

China or Russia are definitely going to capital on the US complete attention to getting involved in helping Israel… not a smart move to have the majority of the United Nations reconsidering being our allies when war can easily break out

[glennos89]

I'm not surprised if this war between Israel and Iran is set up to evolve into ww3

[Snakeyes7]

I am against the US getting into a war that we could have avoided but the destruction of Iran's nuclear efforts was a smart move. If they completed it, it would be over for everyone.

[genericname85]

everyone is an ally of the middle east. like vultures are allies to a rotting corpse.

[Ironco]

It's all about money, always has been. Always will be. It's all just a game

[Anonymous]

Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Why are we so worried about Iran?

Israel just wants to take over Iran to build settlements.

[Tom567456]

Iran is a tyranical regime who beat a girl to death for showing a. lock of hair. I hope they fall.

[Anonymous]

Both China and Russia have problems of their own (Taiwan and Ukraine).

[Anonymous]

Only correct political opinion is that the Austrian Painter was right.

[Grond21]

That seems pretty accurate to me.

[Rollingstones84]

Can you message me? You'd know who I am

[Anonymous]

Sounds about right.