Is the Iran war starting to smell like another Vietnam-style quagmire?

[Anonymous]

You know what I'm talking about. That stench that is a combination of government lies and humiliating defeat?

[NathanDavis]

not the same extent, no...

but yes... every single dead from a US soldier is already a tragedy and a huge loss

losing aircraft or else, is already a big shame

sending boots into that country is going to be not only a very costly operation, but also very dangerous and any detail will look really bad

the Trump administration was all talk about it and that's why... right now they look like absolute idiots, now... if they actually went and "annihilate" Iran forces and the regime, which they could very well and certainly do, well... that's going to carry a lot of collateral damage and loss of life from the people who have nothing much to do with this

and that's going to look even worse... nothing from this point will look good nor feel good either

[Asker]

Sure, sounds like I'm told Vietnam was...

[Asker]

50,000 dead American soldiers and God knows how many Vietnamese for no particular reason

[CaptainSmartass]

Possibly. Hey, hey, LBJ! How many kids did you kill today?

Simples...

[Zack-Bann]

The difference between an ant fart and a supernova basically


Even suggesting it is insulting to the Nam vets


Iran is a picnic.
Minimal casualties (practically none)
A total obliteration of the enemy from the skies
Not to mention its barely been a month, Nam didn’t become a “quagmire” until a long time later

[abc3643]

No, I don't think so. For one reason, Trump is President. He is more ruthless and less sane than the Vietnam Era presidents...
... and we have MUCH better weapons systems.

[Asker]

I don't know that the weapons are any better, actually (it may just seem that way because they are clearly far more expensive) but there's no question but that he is more ruthless and less sane than the Vietnam-era presidents...

[abc3643]

Oh, no. They ARE much better. And it's not just the weapons but the defense infrastructure.

Here's an example just from this war...

Notice how quickly the leadership of Iran was taken out at the beginning of the war and the remaining leaders are still being killed rather methodically? This is because of improved surveillance AND artificial intelligence.

This might scare you, but it is intuitive a bit...

Each of us has patterns... habits... etc. For instance, one pattern that distinguishes me is that I have a tendence to write long explicative answers here. Most do not. So, if you were to read a long explicative answer here, even if I didn't have my name on it or posted as "Anonymous", you'd still suspect it was me. My pattern identifies me.

Now, we all have patterns and habits and attributes which, collectively, identify us as good as a fingerprint or DNA does. It might not be easy for a human to detect these patterns but machines can. I remember playing Rock, Paper, Scissors with a NY Times AI about 7 to 15 years ago. Initially, the machine beat me quite often. I was able to get to 50% by lying to myself. The machine was predicting what I was going to do - and was likely right - so I had to predict what it was predicting about me and then change away from that. And I still then only succeeded about 1/2 the time. You see, the machine learned how I played the game from those early rounds and then it was able to predict what I was going to do in the next round. ... and this was 7 to 15 years ago!

The Israelis used something similar to predict the locations of Iran's leaders so, at the start of the war, they took them out.

This sort of technology was not available during Vietnam which ended 51 years ago.

[abc3643]

archive.nytimes.com/.../rock-paper-scissors.html

[Asker]

So if it's so much better, why is it the US is not winning?

[abc3643]

Wow! It WAS 15 years ago! Time really does fly...

flowingdata.com/.../

[abc3643]

1. The war is still going on.
2. The reason the US doesn't win some wars is that they simply don't want to win wars. Use nuclear weapons or saturate bomb the enemy until there's nothing left to defend and you win.

It's all a matter of desire. If you really want it to come to an end and don't give a shit about the enemy, then you kill them wholesale until they surrender.

That's why Japan surrendered in WW2.

That's the interesting thing about Trump. He doesn't have ethics like that that would prevent him from stopping. If no one intervenes in his administation, he's going to complete this.

[Asker]

Oh, I see. The U. S. doesn't win because it doesn't want to win. Okay, that would be funny if it wasn't possibly true. I think the U. S. prolongs wars like Afghanistan because US industry makes so much money from them.

[abc3643]

I don't think anyone in the US made money because of Afghanistan.
That said, weapons do need to be replaced.
Reminds me of an old adage which I am living in the game I am playing:
"In an arms race, the only winners are the arms dealers."

[Asker]

You seriously don't think that defense contractors made money?

[exitseven]

No, Vietnam was a quagmire because politicians made the military fight with one hand tied behind their back. We have a different administration that has not problem with winning.

[Asker]

How does that explain how in the present conflict the U. S. is losing?

[exitseven]

How are we losing? I bet the Iranians don't think so.

[Asker]

Well, actually, the Iranians think we are, and they're right.

[exitseven]

how so? The US took out over 12,000 military targets. The Iranians shot down 2 planes.

[Asker]

Those are the wrong metrics to be looking at. Instead, look at the geopolitical situation. The Iranians have the U. S. over a barrel, and they know it.

[exitseven]

how so? they are going to invade New Jersey?

[Asker]

No, they are not going to invade New Jersey, which would be a very big error on their part, considering the kind of people that actually live in New Jersey. Instead, what they are going to do is kick the US out of their country, where it had no business being in the first place. That is the same thing that the Vietnamese did, remember? Also, the same thing that the Iraqis did. And the same thing the Taliban did in Afghanistan. Kicked us out of their countries because we had absolutely no business being there in the first place.

[Asker]

Nobody was fighting with one hand tied behind their back. This is just your excuse for shitty politicians.

[Asker]

One advantage that the Iranians have is that they can control the straits of Hormuz and they control all of the surrounding land area, and they are armed to the teeth with weapons that are basically focused on the straits. I know you think that the glorious, the victorious Americans can simply attack with ground trips and take it away from them, but good luck with that. It can probably be done, but think of how many American troops are going to die, how much American equipment will be destroyed, and how little will be accomplished. And realize that even the U. S. will not do that.

[Asker]

If the U. S. actually could do it, they would have done it already, but they can't do it and they're not going to do it, and that's going to cost them the war.

[exitseven]

it was the shitty politicians that made these policies.

[strateguy632]

No because iran let ships pass safely on march 25 &26.

[Asker]

Those were not U. S. oil tankers. I read it still will not unless US oil tankers or tankers bound for US ports through that pinch point.

[BonzoInBitburg]

Not yet but there are early similarities.

[Staximus]

Not yet but it will get there

[Mike_Hum]

lol, what? how many years has the Iran "war" been going on?

[Asker]

The amount of time isn't the relevant metric

[Mike_Hum]

of course it is.

[Asker]

There was no war until just about a month ago.

[beefcakebradybatson]

Worse, because religion is involved.

[jahaims]

All wars are for profit

[In_Trance]

It always has been