Will Iran face a major attack or nuclear strike as the war escalates?

Question

It is looking like much of the US bases in middle east are damaged or destroyed from what I hear. There aren't official releases, but photo evidence. From AI:

"Scale of damage. Iran's drone and missile strikes began after the war started on Feb. 28. At least 20 US bases in the region were damaged, and some analysts put the number as high as 28. An inspector general reported that hundreds of structures were hit. One summary puts the figure at over 228 US facilities damaged or destroyed. That is a count of facilities, not whole bases."

To bring the war to an end, there aren't many options? Destroy Iran is one. The other option, is leave and declare victory or make some deal with china to manage it after departure.

Here's one view that Israel might be the launch point. Question would be, how they justify it.

Anonymous · Accepted Answer

There is a real escalation risk here, but I would not assume that a major nuclear strike is the next step. The situation is dangerous enough that nobody outside the decision making circle can reliably predict what happens next.

Your point about the damage to U. S. facilities is also not entirely based on internet rumors. A Washington Post satellite imagery analysis found at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment damaged or destroyed at 15 U. S. military sites across the region. That included aircraft, hangars, fuel facilities, radar and other equipment. The Pentagon disputed some of the characterization of the damage, and the number 228 refers to individual structures/equipment, not 228 entire bases.

And the conflict is still active. The Council on Foreign Relations describes it as worsening, with the central unresolved issues including Iran's nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief.

Does that make a nuclear strike likely?

Not necessarily.

A nuclear strike would be an enormous escalation with consequences far beyond Iran. It could trigger retaliation against U. S. and allied forces, Gulf infrastructure, shipping and potentially other countries. Iran has already warned that further American attacks could lead it and its allies to expand attacks against energy infrastructure and shipping routes.

There is also an important distinction between destroying Iranian nuclear facilities and using a nuclear weapon against Iran. Conventional weapons can be used against nuclear and military infrastructure. In fact, the United States and Israel have already conducted extensive conventional strikes against those targets. The Arms Control Association has argued that military strikes can damage nuclear infrastructure but cannot permanently eliminate Iran's nuclear knowledge or proliferation risk.

And I don't think the choices are simply:

1. Destroy Iran

2. Leave and declare victory

There are several possible endgames, including a ceasefire, negotiated restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, an agreement concerning the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions arrangements, a reduction of U. S. forces, or some combination of those. Recent analysis describes the conflict as essentially stuck between continued military pressure and negotiations.

The interesting part is that the damage to U. S. bases may actually make the diplomatic question more important, not less. If both sides can continue hurting each other without achieving a decisive outcome, the war can become increasingly expensive while producing diminishing military gains. The Pentagon's own figures reported by CBS put the U. S. war cost at about $33.4 billion through June 29, excluding repairs to damaged bases.

FreyaRed · Accepted Answer

Iran has enough U 235 for a bomb. Maybe not fancy one with tritium booster and lithium 6 secondary stage but one that can destroy a city in Israel. Iran has missiles capable to deliver a nuclear load to Israel.
For Israel a nuclear exchange with Iran would be suicidal. Iran would suffer but Israel would cease to exist.

FrodoSkywalker007 · Accepted Answer

I have heard of some buildings being hit, but it seems very minor in comparison to Iran. Iranian negotiators were demanding over 1 Trillion in war damages. They've lost much of their military infrastructure and many thousands of casualties. Iran also had a collapsing economy, and mainstream media gas finally acknowledged it no longer has hormuz as leverage

Alex-Snow · Accepted Answer

With the mentally unstable idiot in the white house anything is possible

NoDecision · Answer

Just remember, Iran must never have a nuclear weapon, but everyone else can. Trump has evened threatened to use one to blow them away.

Anonymous · Answer

Nobody cares

NathanDavis · Answer

there's absolutely no need to even seriously consider any nukes... stop listening to AI scripts drama

exitseven · Answer

No, they really are not threat anymore. The war in not likely to escslste.

Pterodon · Answer

I don’t believe a fucking word of it

Will Iran face a major attack or nuclear strike as the war escalates?

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