Is soccer sometimes illogical and totally unpredictable?

[ChicanaChick]

I've watched parts of the 2022 World Cup games. I find it hard to believe how the Japanese soccer team played good and better with Germany and Spain (even beat them) but lost (0-1) to a weaker Costa Rican team that lost 0-7 to Spain.

Spain beats Costa Rica by a lot, but loses to Japan whom ironically lost to Costa Rica. It doesn't make sense.

Is soccer therefore illogical and unpredicable? Are you surprised when it's full of shocking result and upsets?

[NathanDavis]

yes, and no...

Spain did relax a whole lot... because it was quite confident that even if they lost like they did today, Germany would very unlikely be able to kick them out of the tournament

even if they relaxed for just five minutes, that is all it took for Japan to take advantage and then again... Spain was not really worried about so they didn't push for the win or a tie as they didn't need more points

and they could have lost 3-1... 4-1... even 5-1 and they would still advance, and Germany would be out either way, lol

[ChicanaChick]

While that can be the explanation for Spain, there is no valid one for Germany losing to Japan.

[NathanDavis]

I didn't watch that game in particular, however... I could argue that for what it looks like

the average "good team and good player" all across the world has definitely increased

in soccer, you could have it way easier to defend well enough, and to "pack" the middle of the field which is a very effective way to slow down and even throw off the more traditionally aggressive and skilled players... and then, the rest of about luck

luck followed by good enough skill from strikers and forwards... and then there's a lot of international players from non-favorite teams that still have very good players that are used to play in Europe

it is undeniable at this point, that a few times from Asia and Africa are no longer "filler teams" that will just be outplayed and guarantee you three points

also true that these German players are not the same from years ago... not the same drive and not the same determination

[Astarlessnightsky]

Yes, there is even a whole book about the math in football (or soccer) here in germany.

Basically the less goals on avarage per game are scored the less predictable it gets and the more surprises can happen.

At least from a mathmatical standpoint.

[ChicanaChick]

So I guess the flaw is when a team scores too many goals against another. Japan probably saw the flaw in Spain when they scored 7-0 against Costa Rica. Spain probably made their attack and defense so obvious in that match and Japan likely changed the style.

[Astarlessnightsky]

No, thats not the point.

If within the avarage soccer match, there are a total of 2 goals scored.

And lets say a really good team plays against a worse team, like the first and the last compete against each other.
The good team may score a goal with 66% and the bad team with 33%.

For two goals its still relatively good balanced.

2:0 at 0.4356
1:1 at 0.2178
0:2 at 0.1089

The chances for the good team to beat the bad team are still 4 times as high, but much better if you compare it to a game where a avarage of 10goals per game are scored.

good team winning
10:0 at 0,0156833688

5:5 at 0,0004901053

or bad team winning
0:10 at 0,0000153158

Even with 5 times as many avarage goals the chances of the bad team winning or even getting a draw are much much slimmer.

And thats with a team thats twice as good, if you only look at the best teams, like in a world championship you are dealing with even closer winchances.

[whereismyjohnny]

It can be unpredictable at times, yeah 😅

The thing with Japan is that people always underestimate them, but it's a good team. I watched their games against Germany and Spain, and they played well. They have a good team spirit and are always fighting until the last minute, so it's no surprise they are winning.

I'm nervous and excited about next game with Croatia tho 😳

[ChicanaChick]

I'm looking forward to that match too. I wish Japan good luck

[whereismyjohnny]

I want Croatia to win, but we will see 😆

[ChicanaChick]

Croatia beat Brazil 4-2 on the penalty shoot-outs. Brazil just got eliminated.

[whereismyjohnny]

I know 😅 I watched the game. It was an emotional rollercoaster, but I'm over the moon rn 😆 I even shed a tear lol...

[LaineyLuiza]

That is what makes football so addictive, it was the first professional sport and by far the best.

[ChicanaChick]

It's surprising when different result shows up (esp upsets) and it's not always the same thing. That makes it even more interesting.

[LaineyLuiza]

This WC has been good for upsets love the pain of Uruguay cheats

[ChicanaChick]

yeah Uruguay has gone home. They haven't played good on their last two games, their fault. I believe that was Luis Suarez last WC since he's already 35. The Ghanaians still haven't forgotten what he did in the 2010 WC.

[ChicanaChick]

I saw that game years ago too. It was a painful match. Suarez at the time was celebrating when that Ghanaian guy (whatever his name was) missed the winning penalty.

[LaineyLuiza]

His bite is worse than his bark

[ChicanaChick]

True. He made Uruguay look bad as a team. They were known as being a good and humble team (known for that Marcana blow they gave to Brazil way back in 1950) and their image has been now tainted.
Hopefully on the next WC, the Uruguayan team is filled with new leads, new honest, young players.

[jshm2]

All good sport is illogical and unpredictable.

It's why golf and "American football" do not qualify to be called good sports.

[zagor]

I would say it is depressingly predictable. A bunch of guys run up and down a field and... well not much happens beyond that.

[ChicanaChick]

But it seems that nowadays a couple of the Asian and African teams are giving the better teams (the favorites) a hard time. Like someone mentioned, they are no longer the teams where you can get your easy 3 points. For instance on the 2018 world cup, Argentina lost to Croatia 3-0 and just like on this world cup on the last one South Korea gets eliminated but also eliminates Germany from the stage group by winning 2-0.

[Sixgunsound]

Maybe they spent a lot of time on postgame analysis and learned something?

[KostasKouvalis]

If I'm completely honest, I think teams are throwing matches.