What Is Russia up to in Indonesia?

[RavVid]

Russia has just asked Indonesia for an aircraft base. Indonesia is just NW of Australia. If you drop a line down from Beijing you'll hit Indonesia.

It is a pretty strategic region - one side of the Malacca straits through which enormous amounts of shipping transits including all of oil for China.

If oil to China were to be blockaded, China would last for 90 days at usual usage. Undoubtedly China is very conscious of this.

So what is behind this Russian attempted move into South East Asia?

Has China called in favors for supporting Russia in Ukraine and wants it to help close off the South China Sea and protect it's oil lines from a US oil blockade of China should kinetics break out. Is this a chess move on the way towards a Taiwan invasion?

It would be a relatively short bombing run to US rotation bases in Northern Australia.

Indonesia is most likely not to agree.

What do you think Russia is up to?

Updates

1 y

New news today is that China is trying to strong arm South Korea into NOT supplying rare earth metals to the US.

Not entirely relevant but with some pertinence.

An Australian company has opened a factory in South Korea that has a clean environmentally acceptable process of rare earth metalization and has fairly recently signed a 5 year contract with a US magnet manufacturer. This is entirely speculation on my part but might be linked to attempts to veto South Korea exporting rare earth metal

Updates

1 y

As Xi's initiatives to get SE Asian countries to circle the wagons around China are failing, it might be helpful to him to have Russia lending their weight.

[itsannalee]

Indonesia has friendly ties with Soviet Nation and other Communist Country like North Korea and China. So i am not surprised.

[itsannalee]

And yeah Indonesia won’t agree with that because their laws forbid it.

"Indonesian territory is not allowed to be used as a permanent military base for foreign countries"

[RavVid]

Indonesia was a non-aligned country in the Cold War. So it would be unlikely. Where did you find that quote?

[itsannalee]

That is not a quote, but the prohibition on build permanent military bases by foreign countries is regulated by the constitution and laws.

[alice55]

Maybe they'e trying to do like American implant strategic base around their enemies contries

[RavVid]

It would seem so. But it would also seem to say something with respect to EU/Ukraine and any peace negotiations. If Russia is trying to expand into SE Asia it confirms global ambitions.

It would seem to also confirm solidarity with China's expansionist goals.

[Sevenpointfive]

you never captained a sub before? it needs to gas up somewhere.

[alice55]

I don't think Russia is trying to expand to Asia at all, they're more interested by Europe than Asia. Also where would they expanse in Asia? They have special bonds with Central Asians countries so no need for expansionism there and after there's only China and Mongolia they re not gonna invade them either.

Russia never tried to expands to SE Asia I think it's just American trying to take Taiwan before the Chinese do

[RavVid]

@Sevenpointfive No i haven't :) Aircraft certainly need some where to takeoff and land AND gas up.

[RavVid]

I doubt Russia will be successful because as a non aligned nation Indonesia (India too) will not be firmly in any camp. Russia has been declined by Indonesia before.

But it certainly shows an expansionist mindset and maybe reminds us of Catherine the Great who said "I must expand my borders to protect my borders".

It is probably a Pysops strategy mostly to cause FUD (fear uncertainty doubt) and it could be effective. Maybe as 'Peace In Our time' tried to buy off Hitler with Sudetenland just before WWII but this time with Ukraine. Plus give support to China (who owns Putin) and pysc out the US a little as well as the EU.

As you say Russia would have more interest in Europe than SE Asia.

[alice55]

Yes Russia have always had more interest in Europe than Asia if not they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine they would have tried an Asian country

Ther's a popular saying it's "Russia have no borders". It's pretty well know in France like saying.

[Sevenpointfive]

that's the point. if it's too tactical then we'll hear about it but i don't see the problem in international waters

[RavVid]

An apt saying. How much does Europe fear further expansion of Russia's borders? Obviously they are in Ukraine and the Carpathian mountains are a natural stopping point. but are there ambitions greater or thought to be greater in France?

[RavVid]

@Sevenpointfive There is a right of transit through international waters ans even exclusive economic zones. In the later ships should make the best of their way. China sending warships into the Tasman sea could not be objected too though firing a laser at our aircraft within our EEZ was.

Airspace is different however. Now I think about it I guess there is a right of way above an EEZ. Will have to check.

[alice55]

Some politicians try to put in us trying to make us believe Russia want to take over all of Europe but nobody believe it. Very fews people actually believe it most just focus on high prices and want it to be lowered they do not care about anything else.

[alice55]

@Sevenpointfive I mean even if they want SE Asia as European it don't really affect us so

[RavVid]

Thanks for a European perspective.

[BonzoInBitburg]

The US reopened bases in the Philippines and are reopening abandoned WW2 bases in SE Asia. You can probably do the math

[AI Opinion]

I'm your travel buddy, Jason! 🌏 I love learning about different places and cultures. The request from Russia to establish an aircraft base in Indonesia could signify strategic military interests in Southeast Asia. This region is crucial for global shipping lanes, especially the Malacca Straits, impacting China's oil imports. Russia's presence may enhance its geopolitical influence and possibly counterbalance Western forces in the Pacific. This could also indicate stronger Russia-China ties, aimed at securing vital sea routes and asserting military stature in potentially volatile areas, particularly if tensions over Taiwan escalate. However, Indonesia's consent is crucial, given its diplomatic and strategic constraints.

[Anonymous]

They are up to no good as usual.

[RavVid]

That is a very safe bet. :)

[In_Trance]

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