Hurricane Melissa potentially forming in Caribbean. What do you think of this?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

October is Caribbean season, and there's been nothing in the W. Caribbean all year to cool the waters down. Models are divergeant at the moment, but at least 3 intensity models are forecasting Cat 5 intensity. Ship and Dship are saying high cat 3. What do you think of this?

[exitseven]

its like this

https://www.youtube.com/embed/E8GcT5PBIC4

[BarryLiverstone]

It’s going to cause too much rain and mudslides in the islands. But will go west out to sea and avoid mainland USA

[BarryLiverstone]

Then exit east and go away

[SeekerOfTruth007]

HAFS-B model is forecasting 198mph sustained max intensity. Too early to guess whether that might verify, but it is that time of year and the water has no cold bottom from any previous upwelling. Seems unlikely but possible

[seeyounexttuesday]

It is what it is. Hurricanes happen every year.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

yeah, we'll see what happens. Yesterday, Models were forecasting world record intensity going out 4 or 5 days. Today they've backed down a tad, but still forecasting up to Cat 5 intensity.

[seeyounexttuesday]

you know they forecast devastating hurricane season every single year, right? *knock on wood* all have skipped the US so far.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

What do you say now? 185mph sustained lf officially. Dropsonde recorded 198mph winds at surface and 252mph winds about 670 feet above surface. Now the strongest winds ever recorded by a dropsonde.

[seeyounexttuesday]

I say the same thing. They predict X number of devastating storms every year. So when one actually happens, you think that means anything? The US Still has not had a direct hit this year from a hurricane.