GFS computer model is forecasting 24+ inches of rain for northern Georgia and western N. Carolina. Two computer models are forecasting Category 5 landfalls in Florida, and the global models are saying it's still going to be a Category 1 hurricane as far inland as the Georgia/Tennessee border. The shear scope of wind and rain damage inland is going to be mind-numbing when you guys see it.
Updates
6 mo
Update: Accuweather increased their local storm max rain forecast for northern Georgia and the Carolinas to THIRTY SIX inches. In Hills and moutain country. The valleys are going to flood worse than anything in my lifetime. The only thing I know to compare it to is the inland flooding from Hurricane Camille or Harvey or worse.
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Forecast are 60% wrong , a bit part, and 20% wrong lots. So don't worry.
there's at least a 90% skill level with this forecast. It's very easily predictable, and they are even slightly low-balling the intensity estimates. NHC just upgraded the forecast to Category 4 landfall, and it's going to be almost as big as Katrina in area at landfall.
Accuweather says it will be a "once in a generation" inland flood due to rainfall in Georgia, N. Carolina and Tennessee.
I expect a tornaod outbreak in Missourri as it merges with a 550mb cutoff trough, which the pro mets aren't even talking about yet. This is going to be like 2011 on Crack. It's a repeat of the "PERFECT STORM" except its happening over land instead of over the open ocean.
Let me just update here. This is the worst one I've ever seen for inland flooding in the USA. Because of topography, it's even worse than Harvey. "The only other hurricane i can compare this to is Mitch in the Honduras. It may or may not beat Katrina for total insured losses, only because it hit a less populated region. Nevertheless the 28+ flash flood emergencies and 50-something total Particularly "Dangerous Situations issued yesterday in one day was the worst I've seen associated with a hurricane and the worst I've seen since the 2011 tornado outbreak.
Accuweather is now saying Helene is between 145billion and 160 billion dollars damage, not counting loss of life being unquantifiable and loss of wildlife and forestries due to floods and blowdowns. NWS office out of NC said this is the worst disaster in the history of the NWS.
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