Is the GFS model’s forecast of a rare California hurricane believable?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

I don't know yet whether this is "garbage in garbage out" or whether it's believable. The Navy model is on-board with it.

This is very, very rare, but has happened before. The Super El Nino makes this forecast "believable," but we just need to watch it every day and see what the models discover as that day approaches.

A full-blown category 1 hurricane hitting the mountains of California would be CATASTROPHIC in modern times.

[slatyb]

There are cyclic storms in the Pacific but the rarely make landfall on the west coast of North America. I'm not sure why you think it would be CATASTROPHIC. California buildings are constructed to withstand earthquakes, and there aren't a lot of low-lying areas that would be affected by storm surge.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Inland flooding due to Orographic enhanced rainfall is the problem. They cannot handle the insane amounts of rain that happens when tropical cyclones rarely hit.

Hilary was the most recent Tropical Storm to hit, and while it wasn't a cat 1 hurricane, that was bad enough.

[slatyb]

That is a good point -- mountainous areas are subject to flash flooding. I was thinking of storm surge but that is not the only cause of flooding from cyclones.

[RachyRach]

Weather patterns have changed so it's possible

[SeekerOfTruth007]

I'm going to watch the models for the next few days. They are starting to repeat the same pattern, which suggests this might actually be real.