Is the GFS showing another ghost storm, or a real tropical system forming soon?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Check American GFS model on Tropical Tidbits as well as the AIGFS. They have somewhat different scenarios, but both suggest at least a tropical storm forms in the next 8 to 10 days in the Atlantic, while the original GFS shows what must be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane forming in about 8 to 10 days still. This is the eighth run in a row with a category 1 hurricane or greater output by the GFS, so it's still liking its chances of happening.

Of course, I don't really trust the models beyond 5 days, but European AI model is also latching onto something slightly in both the Gulf of America and the Atlantic proper, just not intensifying it enough to tell exactly what happens. European model is bad at initializing tropical storms, but very good at tracking their future forecast track once they are initialized, so take that with tongue in cheek or whatever.

I think "something tropical" is likely to form in the 8 to 10 days range, since GFS has been consistent for 48 hours now, but it's just too far out to be definitive about exactly what's being forecast here.

[Iron_Man]

There’s nothing out there right now and let’s hope not. I can’t afford trouble. Every time you make these questions you make Me nervous And I have to answer them

[SeekerOfTruth007]

New model run is still calling for a 50mph to maybe 60mph Tropical Storm east of Florida. It suggests a trough of low pressure will push the storm out to sea.

This is still too early to tell what is happening, as it would be classified as an "invest" on the 8th day out IF AND ONLY IF this model run verifies.

Time will tell.

To be honest, I wish they'd stop running the models beyond 7 days, because to me it's a waste of computing power. They could get the first 7 days twice the precision if they stopped modeling days 8 through 16, but the Navy and Airforce use the 8 through 16 days for determining when and where to pre-position combat units and other military personnel.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

The AIGFS does something completely different, and brings the low into the Bay of Campeche in 10 days or so. The AIGFS is supposedly statistically better than the old GFS, but I still don't trust it, because it's a statistical model, not a deterministic model.

[strateguy632]

trust me dont worry. predictions are not science becuase not yet observed. just a simulation.

[NathanDavis]

you already caught two ghosts in a week!!