Will Tropical Storm Isaias strengthen to Category 4 before Gulf landfall?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

the best intensity models are still calling for this damned thing to intensify to Category 4 temporarily, and then weaken somewhat on the last day of approach to landfall. NHC has officially called for at least 110mph max intensity over water, with weakening before landfall.

Thje stronger the system becomes, the more EAST it should trend. Right now, models are saying somewhere around Mobile Bay or maybe Pensacola. We'll know more at 10am Central (or so) after the Hurricane Hunter flies in and a new round of model runs are output.

Everyone from Lower Plaquemines Louisiana over to Panama City beach needs to watch this thing closely today to decide what plans to put into action, because if it does not weaken this is going to bust ass. It should scare the devil right out of anyone to think that an October hurricane is going to be passing over the Gulf at record Sea Surface Temperatures.

Updates

9 d

Here's intensity model guidance from Tropical Tidbits, but this doesn't tell the whole story yet.

www.tropicaltidbits.com/.../...ntensity_latest.png

Updates

7 d

Allow me to explain that most of the Google members have this thing making Category 3 or 4 still, which is surprising. I don't know what to think about this one, it's not straight-forward intensity forecast here. All I got to say is if you are in a Category 3 or 4 evacuation zone, you should be ready to roll out tomorrow morning if needed.

[GothEgg]

Maybe

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Models have backed down a Category or 2 now that better data is in the computers.

I'm starting to think it might not even make the official forecast intensity of 110mph, because the Hurricane Hunter just failed to find 75mph hurricane force winds again, like it weakened by 10mph since 4am this morning. They do that though. They pulse up and down sometimes and nobody knows why.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

They haven't' had a single dropsonde report real hurricane force surface winds yet, regardless of the fact NHC is reporting this as an 85mph allegedly sustained hurricane. They are once again going by flight level winds, which is ridiculous and is again over-inflating wind speed by nearly an entire category of classification. If they are going to classify it by flight level winds, then yeah, it'll make 110mph sustained... at flight level, but that's not surface winds and it's totally warping the way the warnings are supposed to be issued.

[moddy_the_mod]

nope.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Yeah I know. the previous intensity models were over-estimating it. As things stand, I doubt 100mph surface winds make it on land at landfall, because NHC is actually using flight level winds to classify this thing. It has not had a dropsonde at 75mph or greater yet at the surface, so it shouldn't even be called a Cat 1 yet.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Well, scratch that. One of the HH finally found a 75kt/85mph surface wind about 30 minutes ago with a dropsonde and I didn't notice it. Still, I doubt it makes it on land with 100mph+ winds, because the dry air and wind shear should kill it just in time to prevent that.