Can someone solve this problem? What is the probability that a pregnant teen is the daughter of a single mother?

[Adaeva]

To solve assume the following:

29% of teenage girls live with a single mother and 70% of pregnant teens live with a single mother.

71% of teenager girls live with both parents or live with their father and 30% of pregnant teens live with both parent or live with their father.

Obviously, if a teen age girl is pregnant the probability that she is living with her single mother is greater than 70% (probably it is between 80% to 90%). However, I don't know how to solve the problem.

[Anonymous]

Let P (SM) be the probability that a teenage girl lives with a single mother.
Let P (P) be the probability that a teenage girl is pregnant.

From the given information, we have:
P (SM) = 0.29 (29% of teenage girls live with a single mother)
P (BP) = 0.71 (71% of teenage girls live with both parents or their father)
P (P SM) = 0.70 (70% of pregnant teens live with a single mother)
P (P BP) = 0.30 (30% of pregnant teens live with both parents or their father)

We want to find the probability that a teenage girl is living with her single mother given that she is pregnant, denoted as P (SM P).

Using Bayes' theorem, we can express P (SM P) in terms of the given probabilities:

P (SM P) = (P (P SM) * P (SM)) / P (P)

To calculate P (P), we can use the law of total probability:

P (P) = P (P SM) * P (SM) + P (P BP) * P (BP)

Substituting the values we have:

P (P) = (0.70 * 0.29) + (0.30 * 0.71)

Now we can calculate P (SM P):

P (SM P) = (0.70 * 0.29) / [(0.70 * 0.29) + (0.30 * 0.71)]

Calculating this expression will give you the probability that a teenage girl is living with her single mother given that she is pregnant.

[Adaeva]

It seems like you understand how to calculate the percentage. However, 48.8% is not correct. I think perhaps you are making the assumption that P (P) is the probability of being pregnant. However, the probability of being pregnant was not given nor can it be calculated from the information given. In fact, it could be 0% if no teenage girls get pregnant or it could be 25% if 1 in 4 teenage girl get pregnant.

[Opinion Owner]

You are correct. I apologize for the confusion. Without knowing the actual probability of teenage girls being pregnant, we cannot calculate a specific percentage. In the absence of that information, it is indeed possible for the probability to be anywhere between 0% and 100%, depending on the actual circumstances.

In my previous response, I made an assumption based on the information you provided, but it was an oversimplification. To determine the percentage accurately, we would need more specific data or assumptions about the probability of teenage pregnancy in the given population.

[Adaeva]

@Opinion Owner I have had algebra but so far no additional math. In any event, I believe the maximum percentage of pregnant teens is 30%.

Assume a total of 100 girls and 100% of the daughters of single mothers is pregnant. That is 21 pregnant girls and 70% of the pregnant girls (P).
Ps =0.7P = 21 pregnant girls. Therefore, P =30
Pb = 0.3P = .3(30) = 9 pregnant girls.

In that case the probability that a pregnant girl is the daughter of a single mother is 70%.

What I can't seem to solve is does Ps increase if P is much less than 30%; for example 10%.

[Adaeva]

* What I can't seem to solve is does %Ps increase if %P is much less than 30%; for example, if %P is 10%?

[EpicSnail]

I suck at math, but you said 70% of pregnant teens live with a single mother, and now you're saying it's 80-90%?

[Adaeva]

I asked if a (that is 1 not all) random girl is pregnant, what is the probability she has a single mother. That is not the same as the percentage of all pregnant girls that have single mothers.

[EpicSnail]

I think it is, actually. If you know that 70% of pregnant teens live with a single mother and you pick a pregnant teen at random, the probability that has one is 70%.

[Adaeva]

Thank you! Now that I have thought about some more, I believe you are right

[EpicSnail]

Thanks for MHO 🙏

[Summeroflove]

Parents not raising their kids right…. Sure it will still happen teens have their own free will. But my gosh parents just think it’s okay to act like being sexually active is okay

[purplepoppy]

We lock all girls up in towers until they're old enough to wed then auction them off to the highest bidder.

[Adaeva]

They do something along those lines in Somali. Supermodel Waris Dirie at age 13 ran away, after her father attempted to marry her to a 60-year-old man. I don't recall the price but probably for some camels.

[Surely]

I believe that it would be safe to say that you are living in a household with both parents.
But since you are into your teen years. Maybe you could answer your question better than the rest of us.
What are you doing to prevent teenager pregnancy?
My best opinion would be no one is taught about taking responsibility for their actions at any age. Since someone else will take care of things for them!

[Adaeva]

I can't do anything about others; I can only control what I do. I know that many men, perhaps half, value purity. See: If you were a high value man and could attract beautiful women, who would you choose to marry? ↗

Also, that marriages where the wife is a virgin has far greater success rates after 10 years. There are other reasons, but even if there were not, I will remain a virgin until married or at least until an announced engagement that has the approval of both families. I will probably start looking for a husband at age 18 so that I can be married by age 23.

[Surely]

Agreed! But don’t set a time line for yourself.

[slatyb]

Real sex education would help. I believe that the parents opposed to sex education know that the girls will get pregnant and they are happy with that. Keeps the girls at home in East Podunk instead of going off to the scary city.

[Anonymous]

It's no different than AA step 1. Admitting the problem. Most single mom's don't want to do that. Most single mom's do not want to take responsibility for thier bad choices. As a result they tend to pass this on to thier daughters who having a bad role model, repeat the same self destructive behaviour.

[Ptrmbrs88]

What about the percentage of pregnant teens who are living with someone else entirely, like some other relative, or those who have found themselves homeless?

[Adaeva]

I don't recall the website I got that information from. However, it would be a low percentage based on the following: Seventy percent of children (under 18 years old) live with two parents, 23% with their mother only, 3% with their father only, and nearly 4% with no parent [1]. Two percent of children live with their grandparents without a parent present, and 1% live with other relatives without a parent [1]. (Note that "parents" include nonbiological parents and stepparents as well as biological parents and may be married or unmarried.) For much more detail, visit the Census Bureau's Living Arrangements of Children: 2019.

[Matilde03]

My mother was married when she had me but my father left soon after I was born. I had my first when I turned 15.

[Cheerfull009]

Pregnant girl should marry to her partner, for child support

[exitseven]

I would say more than even odds.

[Anonymous]

Why do I care? It's Western problem

[shades777]

its always 50%