Russian Invasion; The hows and the whys.

[Soteris]

So this is the 2nd part of my take on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Moving away from what factually happened this is entering a more speculative and definitely more research intensive part of my summary of the conflict. I do not have the qualifications to actually present a good view of this but I can make an effort anyway and I will try to include my reasoning and what evidence I have seen to justify what I say. Yes, I will also miss things either intentionally or unintentionally but I feel like I got a reasonable overview of the situation to at least "make sense" of it.

Basically, you either trust what I say, or you dont. I can't convince you through my credentials.

So, where to start. This conflict was always inevitable, simply as a result of geopolitics and history. The optional part was what form the conflict would take place which is why many experts was surprised it escalated into an actual war.. because.. well, they did not think it would go well. Turns out they were mostly right although the incompetence of the Russian military and the surprising strength of the Ukrainian resistance was not properly predicted.

To understand this conflict you first need to understand Russia. Russia is a super power in decline, I usually call this the "British Empire Syndrome" for obvious reasons but it holds true here too. They either act or want to think that they are still the same old super power that they always were while in reality they are declining in pretty much every metric that matters.

Far from restoring Soviet glory they are falling behind everyone else in the world more and more which brings a real fear that soon they can't do anything and become at the mercy of their neighbors. So there is real fear behind Russias actions as well as a time limit for them to act before its "too late" but there is more to this Soviet heritage.

Namely, the remnants of power left over. The nukes and military left by the Soviet Union is obvious and part of why Russia can't let go of them even at the expense of their own national growth but the Soviet Union also left behind lost territory. There is a common belief in Russia, especially among the higher ups that they can recapture some if not all the glory of the Soviet Union if only they could put all the pieces back together. Pieces such as Ukraine.. which is a very LARGE piece.

As such there is a view that Ukraine is supposed to be Russian or that it was a mistake. There is even a belief that Russia "made" Ukraine and as such has some kind of right to take it back. Ukraine was special even during the Soviet Union and it has only gained more importance for Russia after its collapse. But it does not stop there.

Ukraine is singularly important for many many reasons. For the next part we need to talk about geography so I brought a handy map. In it you can see an area marked which essentially highlights the "European plains" which is an area of mostly flat open terrain that can easily be crossed by an and as such has been the highway for many invasions into Russia over the history.

Ever since Russia became a country it has been of highest national importance to fix this problem and this only became more important during the Soviet Union. Essentially, this border is undefendable and incredibly costly to Russia. It is the soft under belly that leads straight to their core territory in Eastern Russia. Historically Russian expansion both east and west has always been in search for defensible terrain, and if that is impossible then to establish enough buffer zone hence the famous scorched earth tactic.

Ukraine is both a buffer zone to protect the Russian core but also part of the ancestral goal of "plugging" the gap. The idea is that if Russia can capture the land around Ukraine (as well as Ukraine) and part of Poland they can DRASTICALLY reduce the front line they have to defend since the mountain range will shield them.

Again, Ukraine is important for Russia but I still have not driven that point home enough so let me tell you another way in which the Soviet Union and Russia considers Ukraine as vitally important for their national success.

In 1904 a British man called Sir Halford John Mackinder wrote a paper called "The Geographical Pivot of History" as basically a warning to the west. In it he talked about his Heartland Theory which is exaggerated for effect but has instead of being picked up by the west as a warning been used by Russia and the Soviet Union as an ultimate plan for domination.

The theory basically says that a country that controls the "heartland" and can maintain stability will essentially control the rest of the world by its influence. Importantly, its center of power would be in the east which includes Ukraine.

But no, I still have not banged on about how important Ukraine is for Russia. Russia is in DESPERATE need of warm water ports, as in ports that do not freeze over during winter. This is why the ports in Crimea and along the Ukrainian coast is so very important even if they are ultimately gated behind Turkey and the Mediterranean. It is not random that Russia immediately jumped to secure Crimea long before considering an invasion of Ukraine itself.

But we get it, Ukraine important. Can we move on now? Yes, I feel like I covered the major reasons as to why Russia NEEDS Ukraine in some form. Honestly I feel like I wasted most of this post talking about the importance of Ukraine when we got so much more to cover so lets just speed along the series of events leading up to this conflict.

First of all, Russia dont strictly need to occupy Ukraine which is for a long while they were actually very close and the people of both countries considered each other as brother and whatnot. The problem is that because of Ukraines importance to Russia this friendship could only really extend as far as its subservience to Russia. Any deviation from Russian national interest will spark conflict which limits Ukrainian freedom quite a bit.

As such Russia has invested a lot of time and effort making sure that Ukraine is under Russian indirect control. Despite Russias best efforts Ukraine began to drift more and more towards the EU due to logical and economic reasons. This then lead to the Ukrainian parliament finalizing an economic agreement with the EU called "European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement".

Russia obviously opposed this as the EU and more specifically NATO is the "enemy" or rival to Russia which resulted in the prime minister going against the parliament and not sign it into law. This sparked a series of civil unrest culminating in a takedown of the government and a loss of Russias control over the country.

With the loss of control and the Ukrainian people determined to move closer to the EU this sparked a crisis situation for Russia which continues to this day with ever more desperate and forceful measures employed to get Ukraine back under Russian control. Russia has tried everything from supporting rebels to gambling and annexing land to claw back Ukraine, piece by piece if that is what is required.

For the most part however, this has not worked and beyond the ticking clock on Russias declining power there is now a ticking clock of Ukraine falling into the hands of the "west" such as joining NATO or the EU at which point Russia can't really touch them anymore.

This is where we need to talk a bit about Putin. Putin likes to portray himself as the "Strong leader" type as that is pretty much required to lead Russia. In this case it means he often takes bold and risky actions. If they are actually risky or not is debatable and there is good evidence that Putin works very hard behind the scenes to make sure it only looks risky while in reality is basically a done deal already.

But a risk is still a risk and the invasion of Ukraine was definitely a risky bet even if Putin had every intention to win. So we have talked a bit about the importance and how Russia was forced into making a decision on Ukraine, what made them so confident in deciding on specifically a military invasion?

From Russias perspective they actually had a lot of things going for themselves. They had their army which was world famous. They had already fought and easily defeated a seemingly weak Ukrainian army just a few years earlier. There was widespread support for Russia in Ukraine so they could possibly even be welcomed by the people as they rolled in. They also had easy access to the capital through their puppet Belarus and they had their previous Ukranian puppet prime minister living in exile in Russia that they could reinstate as the "rightful leader" after taking the capitol since her was not not removed through democratic voting but through violence.

Furthermore Putin is a former KGB agent, he puts a lot of importance on the covert side of things and as such he started a new agency a long time ago. The job of this agency is specifically to target former soviet states and make sure they stay within Russias influence. This obviously includes Ukraine and from what I have heard coming out of that agency this might be the tipping point of why Putin felt confident enough to invade Ukraine.

You see, according to what I heard, this agency kept telling Putin that there was a lot of support for Russia within Ukraine upto and including armed groups that would assist Russia in the case they invaded. Having a superior military with a track record of wrecking your opponents as well as support of countless rebels and all the other things going in the favor of Russia, this looked like it would be a very short war for Putin.

This agency is now being purged by Putin, which on a side note must sting really badly since this was his pet project, with around 150 agents being removed and the boss being sent to what is essentially Russias version of Guantanamo Bay. Pretty much the worst place Putin could put someone.

So yeah, these agents supposedly lied. They made up reports of various resistance groups and what not so that they could ask for funding intended for these groups and sources which they instead put inside their own pockets. Simple corruption, and if you were under the impression that Russia was never going to invade Ukraine it is not like anyone would need to find out about it.

Corruption is a theme we will revisit a lot later once we start talking about the military and such things. Point is that Putin had a lot of reasons to be very confident in an easy victory over Ukraine at which point he could sweep a mountain of problems under the rug in one easy step. Join me next time where things go very very wrong for Mr Putin.