Personally I don't think so, and for several reasons.
1) One of the major assets to dominate the world c is the maritime power and in this field the USA is superior to China, the American nuclear ships and submarines have more advanced technologies than China.
2) Americans can project their military power anywhere in the world, China has an inferior capacity to project its military power with rapport to the Americans.
3) The USA still has a superior economy to the Chinese, and it is the American companies that largely dominate the world rankings of the most important companies. And it's the Dollar that has world supremacy
4) A technological advance
5) Some do not see this area as important, but Americans have a global influence that China does not have.
Can China overtake the Usa and become the world's leading power?
It is a very good question - and I gave it a thumbs up - but the truth is that there are so many variables involved that there is really no plausible way to answer it. It requires knowing things that are not knowable and assumes what has been called the fallacy of the trend.
That is the idea that because a trend has begun that the trend must continue indefinitely. Thus, because Rommel got to Tobruk, Rommel will get to Cairo. Of course, it did not happen that way. Rommel never got to Cairo because an event - the battle of El Alamein - intervened and altered the trend.
Indeed, the United States has been in a similar position visa-a-vis a rival before. When Nakita Kruschev famously pronounced to the United States, "We will bury you," the economy of the USSR was growing twice as fast as the American economy. There looked to be every reason to believe that Kruschev's threat would be realized in the fullness of time.
The problem, of course, was that it is quite normal for a new and industrializing economy - which is what the Soviet economy effectively was at that time - to grow very fast. The growth rates surge as productivity increases and as living standards rise the population grows as well, thus creating a multiplier effect wherein the economy grows faster and faster.
By contrast, the American economy had experienced its' similar surge in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. By the time Kruschev made his threat - the early 1960s - American economic growth continued but the rate had slowed. Relative to the Soviet economy, this then appeared to suggest that the Soviet economy would overtake the American economy.
Of course, it did not happen. As the Soviet economy's industrialization matured, growth naturally slowed. Then as other excesses and weaknesses in the Soviet system metastasized, the economy stagnated, this complicating various social pathologies and lowering the birthrate. Fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the USSR to follow such that Russia went from being the world's second largest economy to its' 11th.
Something similar may be happening in China. First, China was transitioning from an agricultural/peasant base to a manufacturing/extractions base. Throw in China's huge population and the multiplier effect has made China's the second largest economy in the world - yet, as the question noted, still well short of the American economy.
Throw in then China's misbegotten - and now abandoned - "one child policy." China is literally experiencing a shortage of 30 year olds - often in a society its' most productive age demographic. China's birthrate has plummeted and Beijing has discovered that forced abortions are easier to enforce than forced fertility. Thus China may have proverbially killed the demographic goose that laid the economic golden egg.
Further, as the Chinese economy has transitioned from an agricultural/peasant base to a manufacturing/extractions base, the American economy has been transitioning from a manufacturing/extractions base to tech/service base. Suffice to say, it is far more productive and profitable to write computer programs than to manufacture widgets (or cars or...)
This then suggesting that the United States may sprint ahead. Although here the US is also facing a naturally aging population and this has its' own dynamics.
Put it altogether and it is very difficult - at best - to see how this plays out. It can also be added that democracy has advantages over dictatorship - and vice versa. It can also be added that there are other unknown variables. For example, China and India just recently had a serious border clash. Imagine if that becomes all out war - both being nuclear powers to boot. It is not difficult to imagine how that would impact the Chinese economy, unless the US were drawn in.
Suffice to say the variables are almost infinite and the trends are not inevitable in perpetuity. That said - and although I did not vote - at the moment the edge actually goes to the US. The paradox being that, thanks to its past population control policies, China will grow old well before it grows rich.
On the WTO, I confess to a certain indifference. At the end of the Cold War - an ideological contest after all - the consensus in the US was that exposing nations to free trade and interactions with democracy would, in due course, such nations would be forced to democratize and harmony would follow.
The idea had its origins in the Enlightenment, but was weirdly deterministic and in that sense equally weirdly quasi-Marxist. Yet, it was not all that surprising. It was not unlike Woodrow Wilson trying to build a new global order based on international law, collective security, a "parliament of man" and free trade after World War I.
It was not likely to work, but victorious nations in ideological contests are apt to assume that it was their ideals that prevailed and so China was admitted to the WTO. In strategic terms it has probably hurt the USA more than helped it, but only at the margins.
What's done is done and barring some major crisis, so things shall remain.
As to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, no. It would have to be re-negotiated from scratch and there has not been sufficient time to do so. Not to mention that the other states that signed the TPP have since negotiated a new trade agreement called Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and thus there is less incentive for them to cut a deal with the USA.
All this has not helped the US, needless to say, in terms of its relationship to China. However, it has not been fatal by any means.
Short answer: No. Because China treat their people like shit, and nobody in the rest of the world likes them. (And no, America is NOT the same; we don't have ethnic cleansing and genocide camps, nor do we beat and kill people for having a different opinion (yet) so piss off, Commies.)
I bet China has only five years left before total collapse. The ONLY reason they're propped up now is the total traitorous pieces of shit in American corporations who keep funding China, even though the CCP has made it clear they want to DESTROY (as in, "rape and kill") America and thinks of all Americans has a blight on the world. Hell, they think EVERYONE, though.
You made excellent points @Julielamar2 and there's one more to add: China's actual military is complete shit. Yes, they LOOK tough and disciplined, but China has no actual modern-day military experience, and their funding, despite how much money they pour into it, is still extremely inferior compared to the US, who has pretty much been at war non-stop since our entire history (whether you consider that good or bad is up to interpretation.)
The US can be in South Korea and Japan in no time, and nowadays, Taiwan. In straight up war, China would be completely devastated. Yes, the US would suffer more losses than they would against most other countries in the world, but we're talking like 10% casualties versus decimating China's entire military. Not that we'd have to, we have Starwars (not the movie) defense weapons that can pretty much wreck the entire country from orbit. The negative is, once we use it, it's defenses will then be countered by other nations. So it's almost a "one time only" deal, and we haven't had to use it, yet.
But mainly, China is what's called a "paper tiger." They talk a big deal of shit, but can't back it up, Economically, with experience, or with power. In all likelihood, they likely don't even have nukes. And what good is a few thousand nukes, when the US has 4,000 of them, many of which are in Russia. China's only REAL influence is using US corporate greed against our own best interests, and they've excelled at that. China would get slaughtered in a direct war against the US, but they're sneaky and evil enough to possibly win a cold war against the US, which has woke Marxist/Communist bullshit infecting everything, even the US army nowadays. Even if an opponent is bigger, stronger, and more experienced than you, simply poisoning him the night before the fight can still lead to a "victory," and that's mainly what China is doing right now. And the Biden camp is completely complicit in it, the pieces of shit.
Had Trump not been ousted from the White House, chances are, China would've backed down merely from sanctions and tariffs and we would've bleed their economy dry. But seeing as the Biden camp is OWNED by Xinnie the Pooh and in all likelihood helped with he election fraud to get Trump out, NOTHING is happening with China for at least four years. The CCP are like the real life version of Hydra, except we know who all the snakes are within them; they're working in big tech and the mainstream media. And likely, the White House itself.
TL;DR: The US would devastate China in a one-on-one war, but as of right now, they seem to be winning the cold war, mainly thanks to traitorous corporate sellouts in America, themselves.
Yes, I have the impression that the Chinese confuse quantity and quality.
I think you're a little harsh on Biden lol. Let me explain, no matter which US president is in power, he will always defend US interests. Biden took up Obama's technique, which is to say that the objective is to encircle China by making agreements with the nations close to China, I think that is called the transpacific agreement. (It sounds so much like old English techniques) 🤣
Personally, I am not interested in Biden, nor in Trump. I remain quite indifferent to the American president lol.
I think that in a lot of ways, they already have overtaken us; China controls the US and many of the NGOs we fund (like the WHO). They have used a lot of market pressure, ideological, financial and cultural warfare; instead of conventional tactics (which is actually something we see them do throughout history). One of the most telling signs we can see as Americans is when an American company (like Disney) will change the content or products it produces to conform to the Chinese Communist Party's regulations so they can access China's 1.4B potential consumers. Nike, the NBA, John Cena of the WWE, Warner Bros, you name it; they have all bent over backwards to please the CCP to protect their profits.
In order to set up a factory in China, the CCP requires all businesses to have a Communist Party official and branch, which gives them control over that factory's production; the Chinese control our production, and they've had that control for years. The WHO refuses to acknowledge Taiwan as a country, why? Because China doesn't recognize Taiwan as a country, even though the majority of funding for the WHO comes from the USA which DOES recognize Taiwan as a country. American universities educate and fund the research of Chinese exchange students. They've done this for years and it allows the Chinese to have access to American education, research and American intellectual property. When Disney changes content in their movies to satisfy the CCP, that's the Communists controlling the American media. Right now, the Chinese have control over institutions that America pays for; they don't need to fight us.
And that Naval presence you mentioned isn't going to do us a whole lot of good, because instead of maintaining a proper fighting force; our military is going woke because of the ideology that the CCP has (through market pressure) forced American media companies to promote.
I have a difficult time believing that America will remain the top dog for very much longer.
China has bought off our government, our educational systems and our businesses (as well as other organizations like the WHO). They have stolen our technology to a degree that puts them very close technologically to us (not that they are able to develop like we can but they just find the brain dead people within our universities and buy them off to get that information (or our politicians).
Can they beat us now? No. If america continues to degrade can they? Yes. Americans have been brainwashed and many are just intellectually lazy and as such they are not interested in fixing our problems so we can regain power and control over our nation and by extension fight back against the corruption and evil (and yes the CCP is evil) of the chinese communist party (the government is separate from the people).
At the moment our military is more powerful, our economy is more powerful and China could be destroyed utterly if we simply refused to trade with them. Problem is china instead of beating the US just bribed and bought off a handful of people in positions of power (biden is one of them.) so that makes it difficult to determine.
America is superior to China in all ways except current manufacturing cost… They basically manage to win that through slave labor… The the central government then price fixes to below production cost in an attempt to corner the market and eliminate competitors. This works because most corporations around the world ask for manufacturing bid to acquire a contract. To compensate for the failing economics of Chinese companies, China makes all accounting information a state secret so that dumb foreign investors continue to gamble on corporate bonds of failing companies that operate at a constant loss and eventually default of their bonds and don’t pay their debts leaving investors sitting with their thumb up their ass. It’s a big scam. China then uses those US dollars from investors to sort of keep the pyramid scheme going. They then constantly manipulate their currency by printing endless amounts of money but that information is also a state secret. They also pay their people with money that expires so that you have to either take your money and use it at the company store or lose it… China quickly burns through their resources and people in order to acquire control. They don’t want resource accumulation, they want control… So they invade/colonize other countries through their belt and road initiative and exploit corruption through old school bribery in the hopes that they can control other nations and then exploit new nations populations for slave labor and resource exploitation. Like the Nazis their economics don’t work, they are just trying to leap frog from one country to the next like a parasite to enslave the native population in labor death camps and steal as much Nazi gold as they can so that they can push on to the next country. The end goal is control over everything, but the problem is eventually you run out of other people’s money to keep the scam afloat. So ultimately the entire system has to crash...
Interesting point but it's more complicated than this.
Yes, the US is more technically advanced but our military is being badly neglected and is afflicted with "ultra-political correctness", rather than training to war fight. (See this disturbing report:. https://www.cotton.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/navy_report.pdf )
China is making a concentrated effort to become "blue water dominant", and is building ships and submarines like crazy. Add to this the very aggressive actions in the South China Sea (seizure of Spratley Islands) and construction of fortified air bases, with direct purpose of projecting power into the South China Sea. FYI, more than 1/3 of ALL global trade lasses through the SCS. Additionally, China is building the "Great Undersea Wall" which is a sensitive, ocean floor based, acoustic monitoring system to track military and civilian ocean traffic.
With the incredibly weak White House we have now it would not surprise me to see China move on Taiwan. What would Crazy Joe do? Wet his depends diaper and deflect to some BLM domestic issue?
The Chinese also have serious demographic pressures stemming from their disastrous "one child policy" which led to female infanticide, creating a male/female imbalance with an overly large number of males. This means much lower birth rates and fewer young men of conscription age. I think the Chinese are seizing territory and power NOW while they literally have the "man power" to do it. In 20 years the Chinese population will look very different.
Not the way they've been trying to- the 4-2-1 problem's going to hit them, and HARD, in the next few decades. Catch is, Xi Jinping KNOWS this, and realizes that something drastic has to be done. Modern Chinese folks may not directly believe in the Mandate of Heaven any more, but the core idea that giving up territory is a sign of weakness is still deeply entrenched in that culture. They managed to retake Hong Kong, in violation of their own treaties, due to Covid paranoia; let's hope that's enough, and they don't try for Taiwan as well. That would probably mean war.
America is complacent and China have both feet on the gas. I'd hate to see it come to fruition, but China could very well become the world's leading superpower within 20 years. Most of the Western world already depends on access to China's economy, that's why big Western corporations are terrified to say or do anything that rubs the CCP the wrong way. Love him or hate him, Trump actually recognised the threat that China represents, and yet the American people elected a geriatric career politician who bootlicks for socialism and kowtows to China. At this rate America won't even be a "superpower" within 10 years. They cling to their military presence as if that's what actually determines economic dominance in the modern world. China knows that the real power belongs in control of the supply chains and the economy. Why would China need to topple America's military, when the U. S. already depends on Chinese production infrastructure and market access?
12.1K opinions shared on Society & Politics topic.
You don't think much, then.
China already has overtaken the USA in maritime capabilities. Most of the USA's stuff is as old as the Soviet Union era - to which the USA belongs, and will end up as defunct as.
Military "projection" is irrelevant in this day and age. Afghanistan and 9/11 have shown the bigger you are- the harder you fall. Terrorist cells and cyberwar are much smaller and more deadly and more succinct than any military force or hardware.
China has overtaken the USA in economy size and scale. It's only the dollar standard which is keeping the USA afloat.
China is far ahead of the USA in technology. Only Japan is ahead of China. To the scale that China alone developed 5G and is well on the way in 6G communications.
China has the global influence that Trump destroyed. To the effect that China has done more business in 20 years, than America in 50 and accrued far less debt too.
I see no big difference between these two: both -politically- are reckless, egocentric and greedy nations.
Dollars: what are they good for when there's not enough food growing, or not enough (or too much) rain falling? Military: as they are each other's customers... it makes no sense to kill off your clients :D (except for the weaponry industry, of course)
China - with a soon over-ageing population and U. S. - with an increasingly disunited population ---> may surpass each other. But they won't benefit from it.
The rate of growth in China is greater than in the USA. Unless the USA returns to capitalism instead of greater socialism and becomes more productive, China will continue to increase at the greater rate. Currently, it seems likely will become socialists. Socialism loses economically and most young people in the USA favor socialism. China may be communist but economically they went to capitalism. Therefore, China will exceed the USA; first economically and then militarily.
About 10 years ago, China was asked, "What can they do about the USA?" Their reply was, "Nothing yet..." When China is certain of their power, they will put the USA in their place and, since the USA doesn't want to be totally destroyed, there will be nothing the USA can do about it.
Yes I think China will have overtaken America economically at the middle of this century. The market China has of its own is bigger than the market of Europe and America together. The technological advance is lowering. China has a huge influence in Africa and is taking influence in South America. Whereas the US is reducing its influence. The US might have the bigger army but the US financial debts are growing from year to year.
They could if they actually treated countries nice. But they don't. Dominance has to do with influence and they are expanding that into all Asian countries and Africa. While buying up a lot of western companies. They are doing with money and infrastructure not with pure military force. All that is needed really is that American economy fails before theirs do.
All the points you mentioned are subject to change at short notice, not least the dollar's status as World Reserve Currency.
So to answer your question, given enough time anything is possible. And I'm no happier about the prospect of China as a dominant world power than you are.
I hate to say it, but yes they can. US politicians and business elites are in league with the CCP, and I think a lot of people are underestimating the importance of manufacturing bases, financial strength, and asymmetric warfare.
The CCP has invested heavily in its navy, so don't underestimate it either.
Well, I heard on some place that the US wants Huwan, China to investigate the Covid Virus but as of now they refuse to do any investigation into it so something is not right but I believe China could take over the US but recently I heard Biden talking and said if China would hit missiles to the Philippines that the US would strike them so whatever that means too?
I dont like the dictatorial communist government of china. but They not only can they will overtake the states. just look at the rate of increase of their economic power. in the year 2001 THeir GDP was 10 times less than the states. now they are like 60 65% of the states.
1) they have but US officials will not admit it 2) They have more ships in navy 3) they have more men 4) They now have a bigger economy because of the virus. 5) They will be world's reserve currency very soon and then it is game over 6) They have 100's of nukes now
China is very technology based. They use cell phones to buy and sell now. Way more than US. We don't know how many Nukes they have or how many weapons they have. They never tell the truth or admit anything. They would not attack US , but try to beat US economically. If they play the game better , the US will collapse because of too much debt and they will buy the US. Why shed blood if you don't have to.
Of course. They are unified. U. S. is a divided mess off of 50 different cultures, agendas, goals, viewpoints... but people will keep spouting "diversity is our strength" all the way into the toilet.
Your premise isn't very accurate. China has a far wider grasp on the world, especially in the southern hemisphere and middle east than you give them credit for.
No, the Only reason the Chinese have what they have is from spying, stealing technology and copying designs. Without that they would still be carrying clubs and rubbing sticks together to create fire… a totally overrated peoples.
China has already taken over from the U. S. US companies bow to China now ( Hollywood, NBA , Nike etc) because they have a bigger market. In terms of trade. China is #1 and have far greater reach than the US.
During WW2 the US had every factory making stuff for the war effort.80% of those factories are now in China. So as long as China ships us all the steel and uniforms and electronics. Sure we might win.
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