When China will overtake the United States?

Question

There are aspects in which the US maintains a wide advantage over China, while in others the situation is hotly contested, and in others China is better placed.

RavVid · Accepted Answer

China has several problems.

The first is the age pyramid of fewer workers and many retirees. The cost of supporting retirees is probably overstated as Xi will off them in some way. But he can't create new worker bees. Cost of labor has increased a lot.

The second is a major reason for China's growth is giving loans easily. That works for a while but only for a while. There is a middle income trap and China itself sees itself as being caught in this before 'they get rich'. Local gov't bonds are half of the GDP. Money for nuthin only works for a while. Xi will have to tell their banks to buy LGB bonds to stop it falling apart.

Of course there are all those buildings the Chinese people have bought that haven't been built yet. Before they are finished off to be occupied, the tofu dreg towers are being blown up. It is a sort of Ponsi scheme.

They are uppity enough to be confronting with the US plus Europe when it is the International Order that has enable their rise. They are willingly to kill the golden goose. If US citizens decided not buy made in China goods there will be major ramifications for China.

Similarly China is attacking Lithuania on trade. I think my country, Australia, has shown you can tell them to buggar off with their trade bans. They came back wanting to buy coal but so sad all the coal output is contracted elsewhere now.

The US is sufficiently provoked to put chips bans in place. That will have significant consequences.

Europe is sufficiently provoked to invite (today) Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea to a NATO meeting. Europe has learnt a lesson from Russian gas. Both Australia and India can block the Malacca Straits to Chinese oil by the way.

Significantly Xi has copied Putin to be in total control and who is going to deliver bad news to an autocrat who shoots the messenger. (Reputedly Xi first heard bad news on China's economy from Biden. You have to laugh).

RealMarek · Accepted Answer

The process is already happening. I think they will be the clear leader in economic terms (not just GDP and manufacturing capacity) within five to ten years due to the acceleration of dedollarization. After that, the USG will lose its ability (due to lack of ability to raise debt without severe inflation) to project force globally within an additional decade.

BaileyWillow · Accepted Answer

Whenever they want. They have a mighty military, and we have pronouns and drooling Joe.

Dargil · Answer

*China is a shooting star that will fall victim to its demographics and economic structure They have 10 good years ahead of them. They need to act soon or fade into the past. They will have a depression that will affect the entire world.
*As they begin to fade (now) they will start a hot war to unify their people like the NORKS are. They will move on Taiwan and their South China sea neighbors.
*If the GOP takes command in 24, the game is over for the Chinese. We will disengage with them economically and cripple their already failing economy. We will energize our military and smack them if necessary.

Anonymous · Answer

They’re well on their way to overtaking the United States and people keep saying that China has a “demographics problem” but they keep rolling along and growing bigger and bigger. Notice also China is not focused on being carbon neutral or doing anything to “fight” climate change but they’re also more prosperous and populous than the US.

jimmy2 · Answer

Well US sent how many guns, tanks and other stuff they hurried and remolded the amunation workers and make them work 24 /7  So do you think US is ready

Fuentes · Answer

China are communist once Biden is out of office things will change

Hispanic-Cool-Guy · Answer

Never. China is a P. O. S. atheist country. The devil will drag China to hell.

Anonymous · Answer

They damn near already have and China barely even had to do anything. We are becoming more and more like China by the week.

FifiJones · Answer

It won't. Both are _hugely_ indebted.

ChefPapiChulo · Answer

China has no desire for world domination.

When China will overtake the United States?

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