So China invades Taiwan like Russia invaded Ukraine , what happens?

[888theGreat]

Really what could US do to China since US depends on everything from them even medicine. Too many politicians getting fat off of China caused this problem. Now US people are paying for it.

China laughing at US and its worthless threats !

Nothing

US Sanctions China like Russia (Suicide by US)

US Sanctions Russia but can't like Russia because US gets 90% of everything from China

other below

[nightdrot]

Actually, the most likely option - believe it or not - is war. This because, unlike Ukraine where US interests are secondary and mostly derivative of the US need to reassure eastern European NATO allies - Taiwan is both geographically strategically located athwart American vital interests. Also, Taiwan is the US' largest supplier of microchips, thus actually making more important to the US economy than China.

Insofar as US-Chinese economic relations are concerned, it is true that the US - as it has moved from a manufacturing/extractions based economy to a high tech/service based economy - has become more entwined with China. The point, however, is that the reverse is also true. As China has moved from an agricultural/mercantile economy to a manufacturing/extractions based economy, it has grown more dependent on the USA.

In the purely economic sense, then, war is not to the advantage of either side. It is arguable that as a dictatorship, China will be able to impose the social discipline to bear up under economic hardships. However, as two world wars amply demonstrate, the United States is capable of mustering such social discipline when it needs to. (Think of the rationing and wage controls that were imposed in the USA during both world wars.)

Strategically, however, the USA could not ignore an invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan sits astride to oil and other supply lines to two vital US allies - Japan and South Korea, and to the US military bases in both countries. Also, such Chinese action would cut the link between those two aforementioned US allies and the US allies in the south Pacific. (Think Thailand, the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand.)

The USA could not ignore that threat and would have to step in. This or see its strategic position in the Far East threatened in a way that the Russian invasion of Ukraine does not comparably threaten US vital interests in Europe.

To be sure, the USA might be deterred by China's nuclear arsenal. However, the American nuclear arsenal is actually larger and more technologically sophisticated. (Grant, the gap is narrowing.) That might be sufficient to limit any war to a conventional one by, in effect, mutual self-restraint.

However, even in that event, the USA would go in at something of a disadvantage. It would be obliged to launch a carrier based counteroffensive against a China that would be operating from land bases and whose arsenal includes an array of anti-ship and anti-aircraft assets.

In effect, the USA would, operationally, be in the position that Japan was in at the Battle of Midway Island in 1942. Suffice to say, that did not end well for Japan. Throw in that China now has the world's largest navy. (Though it is perhaps not as well trained as its US counterpart.)

In practice, the Chinese armed forces are apt to be, like their Russian counterparts, more ponderous than their American counterparts. Further, Taiwan's resistance - particularly as an island - would likely be more effective than Ukraine's. (For all the latter's bravery, it has no means of pushing Russia back into its own territory by direct military means.) Suffice to say, China brings to the strategic table numbers and not necessarily strategic acumen and tactical dexterity.

Still and all, a slight advantage goes to China. Grant that the longer the war goes, the greater the advantage becomes to the USA - which has the bigger economy and the better trained and equipped forces, thus giving it a long term advantage. However, the longer a USA-China war goes, the more likely it becomes a nuclear war, in which case the outcome is problematic at best.

Overall though, then, the immediate edge goes to China with war between the former and the USA being far more likely as Taiwan engages vital US interests in a way that Ukraine does not. Grant that either way, it will not be pretty.

[Julie4]

No need to answer that, but despite the fact that China has a larger number of ships does not mean that it has the best navy in the world. If we take into account the tonnage and the technological value, the USA remains the best maritime power in the world.

Surely China is trying to compensate for this with more ships.

Also , your answer is perfect.

I hope you are doing well, take care of yourself and your family 🙂

[nightdrot]

@Julie4 Thanks and I hope the same for you and yours.

As to your point about the Chinese and US navies, I fully agree. Which is why I wrote, "Throw in that China now has the world's largest navy. (Though it is perhaps not as well trained as its US counterpart.)"

Anyhow, no disagreement, but in 1942 the Japanese navy was the superior force and was still defeated at Midway. The USA having then, as the Chinese would have now, the advantage of position.

[Jltakk]

THANK GOD someone noticed this could be a problem. China already spit on the Hong Kong treaty, and are currently threatening Phillipines, whats to stop them taking Taiwan, why is no one concerned about China? Especially when they have us by the balls with most of our tech?

[Anonymous]

China owns Joey, Hollywood, and sports. Remember when that jackass went public and was apologizing for saying : "Taiwan?"

Nothing will happen to China, for all the reasons you mentioned.

[Opinion Owner]

Thanks for the MHO

[XXblack88]

C I think it would be hard to Sanction China like we did with Russia

[skytatoe]

That could easily kill millions of people even without US intervention or nuclear war.

I hope they can reach an agreement rather than going to war. I think the Chinese government isn't quite as reckless as Putin, and I certainly hope I'm right.

[Fiend88]

I agree with you @skytatoe

[ragooo8]

Agreed. The Japanese killed 35 million Chinese mostly with bayonets

[ibodi]

I think they are like ukraine that want to drop the world down together but ukraine is worth. Taiwanese is not worth. If you do like russia quit european organization it is happening they dont have duty to follow it, so what is wrong? It is not always wrong who is fighting first actually.

[ragooo8]

The Chinese Republic has a pretty decent military capable of fighting off the forces of communist China. China hasn't invaded yet and hasn't dared invade even after the Chinese nationalist forces retreated to Taiwan after losing the civil war.
Taiwan is ready for a Chinese invasion. I believe it would cost China to much to make it worth their while.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/cpzJH7zx6JU

[ibodi]

You did not survey that the also dont like chinese for jealousy but there are 75% dont want to fight for that ugly president who threaten them by china and those like frog in the well dont know their passport is also China too and they bought amercian weapon is X times than NATO. Self-destruct around 20. components come from China. China made by themselves. dont use cost problems that is not good way.

[ragooo8]

@ibodi Tawian or the Republic of China build excellent components that the US military uses.
I can see a scenario's where Taiwan takes back China from the communists.

[ibodi]

You know the gap they dont know what the components for? Havard survey 90% chinese support CCP for feeling to bring progress living no matter what before.. Yes that party also want to make chinese improve their living but they were richers but dont know bottom of living. Now their attitude is the same even happen in taiwan inside. So there were another party they read marxism actually. CCP has the same trend to go to muti parties but not now. CCP's law after communsim is written by taiwanese judge the CEO of central bank is a taiwanese who believe marxism and defect to china. These years china wish us communicating with each other from folk but those politician threaten taiwanese.

[ragooo8]

@ibodi China isn't a communist country and hasn't been for some time. The Chinese economy is failing and the next wave of automation will finish it.

[ibodi]

yeah it was like japan before like pandora's box that need to learn but CCP may go throught a blind area. They think they make effort to be good on economy, we will like them but they dont know covering true heart. Some of taiwanese get married with them and looked for their relative when China open. They went thorught it, It is not benefit problems.

[Sevenpointfive]

they will sanction china. it's what's best for the economy in the end

[MrtoddsWildRide]

You underestimate how much China likes our money and how quickly we can get factories going. A halt to trade would damage the immensely more than it would hurt us. I personally think we would be much better off

[SlothySlob]

Nothing special really. The whole of the west would antagonize China, crying "no China, you can't do that", imposing meaningless sanctions while the people of Taiwan keep on dying.

[Kiran_Yagami]

Sanctioning China would be meaningless. We'd have to meet them in battle, since we get the majority of our computer chips from Taiwan.

[UsernameXLTX]

There will be sanctions but not to the degree of what Russia is facing rn. The world cannot afford to cut off China because of the economical impact we would all face.

[Dargil]

With Biden/Harris in office, we will continue to demonstrate weakness.

[MrCommodore]

China's biggest trade partner is the EU.

[exitseven]

The /united States invades Mexico.