From what I gather, the November election is based on two things - Democrats on abortion, Republicans on inflation. Which party do you think will win?

Question

It seems like those two things will determine the outcome of the November election. Sure, there are other important issues America has, but these two things seem to be what will determine who wins. They are so contrary. It's hard for me to believe that inflation wouldn't be just as important to both sides. What say you?

rtj1211 · Accepted Answer

All elections in the West the next 12 months will be about very few things:

1. Can people afford to heat their homes, feed their kids and keep their jobs? If enough people can't, then any incumbents will be out on their asses.

2. Which politicians are honest enough to fess up about what Lockdowns were really all about (since if they can't, you can't trust them and you shouldn't vote for them)?

Personally, as a non-US citizen, I'd say you were off with the fairies if you voted Democrat this fall.

Abortion is a non-issue if eating is a struggle. It's an option for the narcissistic middle class. It's on a par with climate change right now for those struggling to pay rent, eat and survive.

Anyone who has any sanity knows that inflation eats into savings of those simple folk who aren't financially sophisticated. Holding cash is a disaster in high inflation. And if you can't afford land, property or other inflation hedges, you're going to vote for folks who will bring inflation down.

exitseven · Accepted Answer

The democrats have failed at everything of importance. Abortion is the only thing they can run on. It is way down the list on things that are important to the majority of people. It rates just above global warming. Most people care about 1) Inflation, 2) Crime, 3) Education, 4) COVID 5) Border Security. 6), Gas Prices. All of these have been a dismal failure by the Biden Administration.

nightdrot · Answer

The premise is a bit of an oversimplification. In fact, the mid-term elections are a bit more complicated and - as far as the question itself - the abortion and inflation issues are not of equal weight in determining the outcome of the elections.

To start, as a general historical rule, the party in the White House tends to lose seats in a mid-term election. If it is a second term President, the President's party will tend to be hit even harder. (Such second term mid-term elections are typically referred to as "six year itch" elections.)

Even this must be refined somewhat. The rule generally applies to the House of Representatives. The Senate is a bit more complicated in that only 1/3 of Senate seats are up for election in any given two year cycle. In any given of those years, the states up may lean one way or the other. For example, in 1984, President Reagan won the third largest popular vote total in history and the largest electoral vote to date - 49 of 50 states. Yet the Democrats actually picked up two Senate seats because it so happened that the states up that year in the Senate tended more Democrat. Thus earning Reagan's otherwise gigantic win the name of the "lonely landslide."

With all that as historical background, the House has a 5 seat Democrat majority and the Senate is tied, (50/50) with the Vice-President casting a tie breaking vote to give the Democrats 51 seats. The House looks set to go to the Republicans, yet the Democrats have a narrow chance of retaining the Senate because the seats up this time have historically tended Democrat.

As far as the issues are concerned, the RCP average of polls shows that inflation is the main concern of 34% of voters. Abortion is only 8% of all voters. Crime and immigration also exceeding abortion. To be sure, a larger number of Democrats - who represent about 28% of the overall electorate - are concerned about abortion. However, most Republicans and critically independents view inflation as the principle issue.

Given these numbers, it is extremely unlikely that the Democrats could win on the abortion issue. This indeed is why President Biden has been attempting to make former President Trump an issue. Specifically claiming, sometimes in very intemperate, indeed almost slanderous, terms, that the GOP is the in the pocket of the former President who is, the polls show, a very divisive figure.

Inflation, which impacts almost everyone, will be, by far, the more important issue and then the only question is the base vote of which party will come out in greater numbers. Based on the RCP average, it appears that the Republican base vote will come out in bigger margins. The only other question being where they come out.

Again, in the Democrat leaning states, enough Democrats may turn out to offset the GOP. In which case the Senate will likely stay - very narrowly - in Democrat hands. However, as the polling in Georgia is already starting to show, this seems unlikely. (The GOP candidate is now, for the first time, outperforming the Democrat incumbent.)

So stay tuned. There are a lot of moving parts of which inflation and abortion are only two - and themselves are not of equal weight. That said, if history holds - and again, it does not always, there have been exceptions - the GOP will likely come out ahead.

OlderAndWiser · Answer

Inflation affects all of us every day. It's always the economy!

HighValue · Answer

Biden directly caused the inflation and since he is a democrat, the democrats will still support him no matter what he does. The democrats are sexualizing children and pushing a transgender agenda on them in schools and the democrats will continue to support that. Biden caused Americans and allied Afghans to die and the Afghan women to suffer and the democrats will support their party for that too. (Democrats hate normal women, they only like feminist man hating socialist women.) A democrat (Newsom) and the legislature made a law outlawing the purchase of gas cars and yard tools while already not having enough electric to run the state of CA, but the democrats will still support their party after that too. Democrats keep letting o8ut criminals and not prosecuting criminals for theft, vandalism, and assault so democrats will still vote for their party for that too. Democrats like having casual sex outside of relationships and don't want consequences (that is why they want abortion so badly) and are terrible partners for people wanting an exclusive loving long term relationship and to raise a family with so their voters will support their pro abortion party because of that, even though those supreme court judges will remain for the next 30+ years regardless of who gets elected in the future.

Pretty much whatever is bad and immoral in society and harms the family unit, that is what democrats will support. Republicans USED to be half as bad as democrats, but after Trump got many more conservatives in that are not RINOs, now the majority of republican candidates actually support policies that are morally good and beneficial to most citizens.

It will come down to how moral or immoral the independent voters are this time around.

Curmudgeon · Answer

If people were sane, inflation and the general economic mess. Even if one is pro-abortion, the states moving to restrict it are those *where the anti-abortion people actually do live*. The rest of the states will remain abortion on demand, and some like CA, MA, NJ, NY allowed even farther along a pregnancy than Roe v. Wade ever even contemplated, let alone permitted. As it is, the costs of taxation alone are worse than food, clothing and medicine, combined:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/T__BVZsQ0us

Meanwhile, we are seeing militant pro-abortion people alienating those who would otherwise agree with them:

Abortion Rights: How to lose friends and antagonize people

But I am sure the Democrat Media is kicking into overdrive to scare the voters, heck, they have been doing that for years, and not just in the news either:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/J5G6Y4v6fCI

Anonymous · Answer

Well, the way I see it when it comes to elective abortions oftentimes financial reasons are listed on surveys of women who have had abortions. Now, I'm not arguing whether or not that should be a good enough reason, just saying that its a reason, so if inflation is a major issue for most people than for women of childbearing potential I would think having an unwanted pregnancy on top of inflation could be a real concern for women that wouldn't be able to handle the financial implications of an unwanted pregnancy. Now, abstinence, birth control, and permanent sterilization could decrease abortions, but who wants to practice abstinence, birth control is not 100 percent, and permanent sterilization is well permanent and so some young people may want children later on when they are more financially stable. Now, think most women know that realistically at some point their birth control should fail some certainly not all may want to opt for an abortion. I think it terrifies women that they might not have that choice if there should become a national ban. Heck, I don't think I would ever choose to have an abortion electively but if thought a pregnancy could be a detriment to my health I would be concerned that national a ban might be too restrictive which is the case in some of the states.

In any case, I think it's a more nuanced issue than that even, but I'm only to point out that the financial implications will contribute to the perceived need of some women.

Surely · Answer

Unfortunately, Americans have a really short memory span. People need to look at the past and see why the country is in this mess. Then look at what it would take to correct it.
Most people only look at the here and now.
I guess November will tell the tale!

Anonymous · Answer

Inflation is a big problem for everyone just to live so if most people have children that didn’t want children how are they supposed to afford to have them now with all the price increases of everything? I’m definitely for fixing inflation but abortion is not always an issue politically but apparently they both hit around the same time this time around

RealMarek · Answer

The Republicans will not make the sort of gains they could be cause McConnell and McCarthy, and the party leadership generally speaking, are closer to the Democrats than they are to the populist base, who they despise. They have no organized platform or legislative proposals, almost as if they are purposely snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Astarlessnightsky · Answer

Republicans will win, simply because its their turn again.

888theGreat · Answer

No, Democrats spending/National Debt , economy, inflation, masks , school boards (charging parents for not liking what there kids are taught), rule of law (lack of it) , Trump raid, crime , inflation, transgender operations on kids , and electric cars forced on everyone. Also calling conservatives terrorists and attacking Supreme Court and trying to kill justices.

Avicenna · Answer

It's a good question. Best thing to do is talk to a cross section of people and see what they say rather than relying on media opinions on this.

FunkyMonkee · Answer

The way the dems have been shitting on us, the country's going red, except for a few enclaves of blue brainwashed idiots that still just don't get it.

Sixgunsound · Answer

I think it’s going to come down to political tribalism, and whoever can beg, borrow, or STEAL the most votes.

Dargil · Answer

Lets see. Republicans and inflation are about quality of life. Democrats and Abortion are about the evil of infanticide.

FilmGuy93 · Answer

Eh. I don't disagree with that. I think there's a bit more than that on the line though. There are gun rights, education, etc.

TroyDT · Answer

As Bill Clinton said, "It's the economy, stupid."

hostboy__fastestlaps · Answer

I'm not really kind of a party person, but I think Gavin Newsom will be completely defeated this time around in my state.

BarryLiverstone · Answer

It’s the midterms. So both will win and both will lose. Other issues are important for local races.

Cubus · Answer

House - Republicans Senate - Democrats, because Republicans chose a few shitty candidates.

BLP11520 · Answer

Inflation hits everyone BUT the rich. Abortion is not a daily thing.

jimmy2 · Answer

It's is based on 2 things Republicans making changes and Democrats staying home

Anonymous · Answer

Inflation already top in USA...

Anonymous · Answer

dems... cheating again

Jennz6 · Answer

Yeah me too

From what I gather, the November election is based on two things - Democrats on abortion, Republicans on inflation. Which party do you think will win?

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From what I gather, the November election is based on two things - Democrats on abortion, Republicans on inflation. Which party do you think will win?

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