And if Germany and Russia became allies, what would be the geopolitical consequences of such an alliance?

[Julie4]

[nightdrot]

Without any of the particulars of how and why such an alliance came about, so a detailed response is not really possible. However, there is no doubt that a German-Russian alliance would be a strategic, diplomatic and political earthquake.

To start, in fairness, such an alliance is not unknown. In the 19th century there was the "Three Emperor's League" between Russia, the German Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. There was, pre-WWII, the brief but nonetheless highly consequential German-Soviet pact.

These because, at an economic level, Germany and Russia do share some interests. Germany is the 4th largest industrialized economy in the world and a consumer/importer of foodstuffs and raw materials. Russia is the 11th largest economy in the world - though for a time in the post-WWII era she ranked number two - and is today a producer of foodstuffs and raw materials. Suffice to say, this gives Germany and Russia an irreducible level of common interests.

However, economics is not everything and what Russia and Germany have discovered over the course of history is whatever their common financial interests, these are not compatible with their security interests. Specifically, Russia seeks to dominate - diplomatically, economically and, if possible, militarily - the states of eastern Europe and the Balkans. Partly as a safeguard against rival powers in the West, partly as an access point to warm water ports and partly to free up Russia to deal with its interests in the Middle East and the Far East.

Germany, similarly, has an interest in a dominant position in eastern Europe. Partly as a safeguard against Russia. (Germany has a larger economy, but Russia has much larger territory and a much larger population thus enhancing her military position vis-a-vis Germany.) Partly as a market as well as an access point to the Russian market.

The states of Eastern Europe have had to navigate this rivalry and play one side off against the other. By joining NATO, the states of eastern Europe secured themselves against Russia - and ironically against Germany. It being noted that, as Lord Ismay put it, "The purpose of NATO is the keep the Germans down, the Russians out and the Americans in."

Suffice to say, a Russo-German alliance would send the states of eastern Europe into a scramble to secure themselves between these two powers, likely by attaching themselves to one or the other of them. This would not only exacerbate tensions between the eastern Europeans, on the one hand, and the Germans and Russians on the other, it would also increase tensions between the states of eastern Europe and the Balkans themselves. (See also the pre-WWI era for historical precedents.)

It would also send the states of western and central Europe into a scramble to align against the German-Russian alliance while also seeking some way to divide it if possible. It would also likely cause the western Europeans to seek a deeper commitment from the United States, probably with an increased military presence. (It would also likely reduce the global role played by France and the UK as they would have to focus on threats closer to home.)

As to the rest of the world, it would likely increase hostilities between Russia and China. They are not natural allies and if the Russians could feel secure in Europe, they would then be freed up to pursue their inherent rivalries with China. Suffice to say, the ripple effects of this in the Far East would also be significant - especially for Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Mongolia, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand.

Of course, this is just a basic 500,000 foot overlook. Again, the specifics would depend on the circumstances which led to the Russian-German alliance as well as the terms of such an alliance. Yet that all said, if the past is any indication, such an alliance would be temporary and lead to a very unhappy - and likely violent - outcome.

[Julie4]

Excellente answers as usual.

I wonder what would be the reaction of the USA to such an alliance, the economic and technological power of Germany combined with the military power and resources of Russia.

[Jdjfjcjj]

Germany's economy would crater if it was total alliance with Russia. They benefit from EU being that they produce more and sell they goods and services to other EU members. If those members stopped buying, it would be a much weaker Germany.

[nightdrot]

@Jdjfjcjj @julie4 On the last point by @Jdjfjcjj, presumably Germany would not make an alliance with Russia if it did not suit German interests. That is part of the difficulty in answering this question. There is no way to know the circumstances that would make such an alliance possible.

Suffice to add that it is unlikely that Germany would cut a deal that would leave them stranded from their European markets. Other than to add that this works both way, the EU needing Germany as much as Germany needs the EU.

@julie4 The same problem as above. As it is hard to know what circumstances would facilitate a Russo-German alliance, it is hard to say how the USA would react.

That said, since World War II - and really before - US foreign policy has been to prevent a single dominant power on the continent. (Not unlike the UK, which is one of the reasons the USA and the UK have a "special relationship.") So it seems reasonable to assume that the USA would work to bring the other states of Europe together - and given US military dominance, that would likely not be difficult.

However, beyond that generalization, without specifics, it is simply not possible to answer in much detail. Nations pursue their interests and therefore it stands to reason that the USA would follow the imperatives of its historic national policy interests.

Anyhow, hope that helps - at least a little. Thanks, as always, for the kind compliment.

[andreasderjuengere]

An interesting idea.

Germany (I was born as one from them (not... of them)) still is brainwashed to piss their pants when it comes to the last war ''we'' were engaged in.

Germany also is very much embedded in the EU, so an ''alliance'' with Russia is only thinkable if it's in line with the ideas of the EU partners who count (not ALL of them count :D ) ... that's not an impossibility.

The NATO membership is in conflict with this. But as the U. S. are in decay, it's just a question of time when this agreement not longer makes sense.

Russia/Germany (with some others who inevitably will join if that happens) will have a good chance to fuck over the Imperialism of mainland China and Emperor Winnie the Pooh (Resources, economical performance and technological know-how combined).

Both countries do not so much seek dominance, but self-determination, an OWN identity and liberation from historical ''debts''. It would not be a threat, but a chance.

Provided: that Putin knows his limits :D

[true_blue]

Geopolitical seems a bit of a stretch, there'd be consequences for Europe for sure, the EU in particular; NATO not so much realistically, there'd just be a big (ger) hole in there with Austria and Switzerland also not members. I doubt it's getting geo-anything unless you'd add China to the mix but then it wouldn't be much different from the already looming paring of Russia/China. Which mostly comes down to China's heft. That said, I couldn't think of many hypothetical alliances as unpropable as this since there's little common ground about anything. It seems to me about the only parallel between those two countries is something of a strong opinion about (and some strange emotions towards) the other, which on both sides just happen to be completely odd, mythical/fantastical/romanticized. Germans in particular appear to be very unfamiliar with Russia or much anything Russian --or really anything east of them -- and hardly interested, at least in that sense a typical Western nation. There's a reason they could be fooled like that (about energy) and still be surprised about Russia's latest aggression. On the other hand a good many Russians (still) at least understand some German which gives them somewhat of an edge in that respect. Putin in particular makes good use of his own insights into German mentality (he's once worked there). One must not forget that the German economy would hardly remain as it is, they'd join und thus turn themselves a pariah after all. So you get gazillions of raw stuff for gazillions yet more fancy cars, but nowhere (worthwile) left to ship them, or else getting blocked by sanctions. The whole idea feels like it's more based on 1930s Germany and imperial Soviet Russia, in other words, as anachronistic as it gets. Today both sides suffer from serious (and similar!) demographic problems, neither side by the way having functional armed forces. Geopolitical seems a bit of a stretch indeed.

[Anonymous]

It wouldn't happen, that said, it'd likely spark something bad. If it did, we have plenty of personnel and munitions at Ramstein to level every military installation in Germany in a single swoop, before moving on to Russia...

Problem we would have with Russia is the same problem Russia is having with Russia, we would have to figure out which bases/ vehicles/ planes/ etc are actually operable enough to be worth dropping a bomb on.

That said, among the immediate alliance that would occur as there would be some level of provocation to be sure if Russia and Germany were to make such a bold move (Article I being invoked) I'd give Russia about 2 weeks before Moscow was flattened since they've already exhausted ridiculous amounts of munitions and hardware in their war with Ukraine.

The primary risk would be that of nuclear weapons. That said, strategic strikes would certainly target those silos first (when ones we know about) as well as the airbases and submarines that we know the location of and are believed to be armed with such weapons. Luckily airbases are a strategic hit regardless of what munitions they possess, and are difficult to conceal, as are aircraft carriers.

What nuclear munitions that are left to be launched would only have about a 5-10% success rate at best at getting past our current missile defense systems. This is still a LOT of firepower, but luckily they will have a LOT of targets globally and hopefully primarily military, which have stronger defense measures than civilian targets.

However, knowing that launching nukes would definitely turn the Kremlin and anyone inside into a bunch of crispy critters as it would be the primary target of the retaliatory response.

Id say WWIII would last about a month on the outside end.

Of course in about 20 years we would have WWIV and it'd last for ages because we'd be reduced to fighting with sticks and stones...

[Makeushiver]

It would be quite a shift in geo-politics. Seems unllikely though, Von Ribbentrop and Stalin tried in the late 30s but Stalkin was paranoid about Hitler's intentions and it turned out to be well placed paranoia. History has cast Western Europe as being the enemy of the countries of Russia and the Soviet Union. There is a deep distrust in the collective memory in Russia of the intentions of Western European countries. For good reason. Starting with Napoleon, then Kaiser Wilhelm, then Hitler. It's not quite the distrust Russins have for their neighbors in the East. Though The Chinese and Russia are making sweet sounds to each other Russia has an even deeper distrust of Asia. They've been making noise about the Sakhalin islands since WWII. One of the deeper embarrassments for Russia at the end of Nicholas II reeign was the Russo-Japanese war, That was shortly after the Crimeann War which didn't hellp their relations with the Anglo-Saxons.

An alliance like the one you are suggesting would now- and this would have been true anytime in the past few centuries. Marx and Engels believed Germany wouuld be the country in which a revolution that would create the first socialist and then communist government. Germany is almost always the strongest economy in Western Europe though probably not as strong as Norway German engineering has always been held in high regard and it is only the propensity to invade France and the low countries that has interfered with it's growth.

[genericname85]

well that would probably get germany fucked over by the mafia they're paying protection money to in order not to get fucked over. russia never behaved hostile towards germany in history. even with Hitler russia was more or less on the german team, till hitler decided to just invade Russia too after he was done with poland.

the only reason germany is not at least neutral to russia right now is the mafia that i mentioned which forces germany to behave hostile towards russia or else... and that mafia is NATO with it's mafia boss being USA.

right now Germany is still Americas bitch, which never changed since ww2. and if we germans dared to try and be independend, the americans would probably bring us some "freedom" yet again.

The ww2 russian control military left germany roughly in 1990. American troops are still here.

i'm by no means saying that america shouldn't have helped with Hitler back in the day. though that was far from a humanitarian act. they waited till the last second to give germany the final sucker punch and play the hero of the day with the intention to keep germany as a satelite army base. a line of defense against the "east" so to speak. not exactly glorious.

[DaisyM23]

This will probably never happen unless the common enemy is someone even bigger but I guess one of the biggest consequences will be the effect of it on the EU. Germany is a major player both in Europe as a whole and as part of the EU. But I don't know, it depends on what we define 'allies', in terms of just coming out and saying support or actually providing Russia with military support and resources.

I'm trying not to think of the geopolitical consequences of the old alliance system that led to WW1 because I doubt it would have such a catastrophic domino effect?

[Lionman95]

Though that´s probably not going to happen I think it would have major consequences on the EU hence Germany is the country that pays the most for the budget and could therefore influence the EU´s politics with other Eastern countries like Hungary into a pro Russia. That would also lead to problems with the US hence there are still today American soldiers in Germany and it could become a problem for the US foreign politics or specifically the NSA hence in Frankfurt is Europe biggest internet junction that allows an intervention in many European internet networks.

If Germany became an ally of Russia, that would mean that Russia could use them, too. That could increase an internet war between the KGB and the NSA. Plus it would have a strong influence on the NATO especially if other countries followed.

[FreyaRed]

Germany and Russia will never be allies. Germans despise Russians for their corruption and lack of pragmatism. In collective Russian mindset there is no good business if you don't betray your business partner. They can agreed for a short wiled pact like Ribbentrop-Molotov to deceive the other side or build two gas pipelines which could generate good income for them both but in Russian perception this isn't a successful business model. At the end they can't cooperate over longer time span

[stark04]

Consequences will be causing United States panic and make them worry unnecessarily even though it's not our fucking problem to begin with, Because US likes to participate in someone else's business, trying to get control over everything and everyone and make things worse.

Last time we got Germany involved in the war they were not supposed to be a part of, World War 2 of course. 😅

[MarkRet]

That would be unlikely to happen. For centuries, Russia and Germany (previously Prussia and the Holy Roman Empire) have tried to conquer and consume each other, and they don't really like each other. Russia still likes to expand and flex their muscle, but Germany had their balls cut off after WW2, and they prefer just being an economic power under NATO protection. Russia can't be trusted by anyone.

[Agape93]

Nato would be fractured. Germany is a central pillar to to the alliance, both economically and militarily. Plus Russia would have an ally in western Europe. But, they won't kick Germany out. Per the charter, an attack on one is an attack on all, so russia can't attack without Germany forced to fight, leave the alliance or betray them and get targeted in turn.

So it would be interesting but pointless.

[TroyDT]

Not sure it would be much, other than the Russian people getting a lot of better engineered cars on their roads and Germany having a certain oil supply. The war in Ukraine has shown us that Russia has been ridiculously overrated militarily. I'd be more concerned with an alliance between Russia and China.

[menina]

I think that's very unlikely. Russia is one of the EU's enemies and Germany is part of it. If Germany takes Russia side, then it will be the same as betraying all the EU countries.

Not to mention that it would be a disaster.

[JamesDiaz11]

Very little- Germany's foreign policy is still hampered by their experience in WW2, and they're economically tied to the rest of Europe; so, there's very little they could do to impact the preexisting relationships.

[Sixgunsound]

If Germany caves or collapses, Russia will just use the power of the gas pump against other European nations.

[MrCommodore]

Russia and EU alliance would be a powerful entity, but unfortunately that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

[Be3Bee]

Something like the 1939 Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact? Right before the Poland was attacked?

No more of that soup, please.

[Dargil]

And if Germany and the USA became allies, what would be the geopolitical consequences of such an alliance?
Mutual benefit and a lasting peace in Europe.

[Adam1978]

We know what happen, Russia will try to screw them over and think they can get away with it. The gas dependency basically was an alliance.

[katiesmuff]

Wouldn't work out any better than there last alliance did (early WWII)

[Avicenna]

The rest of Europe would need to get serious about defending itself

[invalid1]

Well, it means the US influence would shrink! But the fued of the region predates the rise of the United States.. so it is not likely.

[RangerBlue22]

Ah Germany is supporting NATO in the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

[abc3643]

That's not going to happen unless Russia were to join NATO.

[ibodi]

Push eastern european to pay high industrial produces.

[John_Doesnt]

Would the US have to fight Germany for a third time? Probably not. I think the Germans have learned not to start trouble, they always lose.

[Fuentes]

Lol that would make Germany & Russia the ultimate super powers of Europe. Although Russia has a trash military.

But in Reality won't happen.

[Googlemyahoo]

They were in an alliance in WW2 look how that worked out.

[macjets007]

That would never happen. The plan is to have Russia be the boogey man to have constant war, and make global governance much easier.

[TheFlak38]

The idea in itself makes me wanna puke. Yeah let's form an alliance and turn Europe into a Eurasian, marxist shithole.

[KrakenAttackin]

Ha! Seriously? The Russians fucking HATE the Germans. Do you know how many Russians were killed by Germans?

[Dingsbums]

Germany would conquer Europe for the third time

[007kingifrit]

nothing. germany and russia always pretend to be allies, mostly to convince themselves they don't hate eachother... but they do

[Imsmurter1]

Just more Cold War nothing change. Only thing stopping America is either a meteor or America itself.

[Guanfei]

Germany would probably be excluded of NATO and EU.
Which, considering how treacherous they've been in the last decade, wouldn't be a bad thing.

[Paul09]

Germany takes control of Russian-owned refinery amid energy crisis. This Friday. So I doubt that would happen.

[Cubus]

They always been allies, except for World War I.

[katiesmuff]

Try WWII as well!

[Cubus]

@katiesmuff Germany and Soviet Union attacked Poland together.

[katiesmuff]

And then the Germans attacked Russia and came very close to destroying them

[Cubus]

@katiesmuff So you deny it?

[katiesmuff]

I absolutely do deny it

[MiseriaCantareAFI]

It'd never happen

But if they did, that would form quite an alliance of the east, vs the west

[summiter]

I would hope Germany is smarter than that.

[Sandeeppingping]

The führer and Stalin:The resurrection

[slatyb]

Not happening my time soon.

[OddBeMe]

Pretty sure germany values nato more than most.

[rabbitzzz]

molotov ribbentrop pact

[pizzalovershouse]

The world be screwed

[Jamie05rhs]

That would suck for everyone.

[msc545]

The Russians would have better cars.

[ODC2112]

Do you use LSD?

[Anonymous]

They will never becomes allies

[Alex8736]

None of America's business

[Jouth]

america will explode

boom

[Amur8711]

Probably the same as last time.

[BLP11520]

Not good it should not happen

[jimmy2]

It will be then vs Nato

[Anonymous]

Take a wild guess.

[AssholeNumberOne]

Wheww boy.

[AmeerX]

Another World War?

[maximumpower]

They won't.

[Luckycharms12]

Nor going to happen

[Anonymous]

Nobody cares!