What would be the consequences géopolitics for the United States , if one powers became dominant in Europe?

[Julie4]

What would be the geopolitical consequences if NATO were to disappear? And what would happen to the United States if it were "excluded" from Europe, or if a power dominated the continent?

[RavVid]

First of all there is not much difference in the values between US and Western Europe. Eastern/Central Europe aspires to be Western Europe anyway so I don't see much difficulty there - except for Hungary and Turkey (which you could say the latter is sort of Europe but the jury has been out on that since 1952 Nato acenssion).

Despite that, Europe is far more collectivist than the US. We see that in medical care quite strongly. In my own country Australia we see it that the individual has no bargaining power in medical purchases like we have with flat screen TVs. So a capitalism model won't work. Effectively our gov't does that bargaining for us against big pharma etc. We wouldn't see that Person X should just die if they can't afford the care. I am probably exaggerating but that seems to more the US view to some degree.

That is just dramatic effect to illustrate a core difference. Australia pinched a fair bit of the US constitution for our federal structure but our attitudes are very differently embedded. The core difference is we want more homogeneity whilst the US wants a competitive environment in gov't. That would play out in a united Europe I guess towards homogeneity also. I am assuming union in your question rather than conquest and surrender & adoption.

That would play out in European collective support in some industries. It would be OK from the US view if stodgy European industries delivered inferior results. But if Airbus whips Boeing I think we would see some dramatic US-Europe politics play out and trade sanctions. We could think China here. Certainly Europe would like some autarchy.

Which brings us to more straight Geopol. It could be the West vs The Rest but we do see fault lines forming in 2022/3. Europe sees it self as being more sophisticated diplomatically whilst the US sees surrender monkeys. Western Europe doesn't want to see Russians at Brandenburg Gate but is less inclined to pay or act for that not to be the case.

When it comes down to it, how devoted would a single state Europe be to the US introduced post WW2 rules based order in the face of Russian and Chinese desire for a different world order? If not US would be probably less invested in Nato even to the point of withdrawing.

It is also possible that a single state Europe might look back to a different world order as well with it's own imperial dreams and desire for autarchy - see Boeing vs Airbus.

At the end of the day it is impossible that two powers with about 30% of world GDP each are not going to conflict. When $'s are involved family fights can be very bitter

[Dildօphօbe]

Well, if a dominant power were to arise in Europe, it would be like finding out your favorite hot dog stand has been taken over by a rival vendor. You may try to find a new source of sausages, but it'll never be quite the same. And if NATO were to disappear, it would be like losing the love lance of your life. You may try to move on, but you'll always yearn for the touch of that special passion pike. And if the United States were to be excluded from Europe, or fall under the sway of another power, it would be like having your spicy stick stolen by a rival lover. You may try to find a new source of pleasure, but nothing will ever compare to the carnal cane that once brought you such joy. So, in short, the consequences would be devastating for the United States, and the rest of the world will be left yearning for the satisfaction of a good sausage scepter.

[Sixgunsound]

If one power became dominant in Europe, I have to imagine it would go the way that typically goes, conquer their neighbors and get tribute until a coalition of smaller states successfullly resists or the imperial nation implodes. If NATO were to disappear, I would imagine all the old feuds in Europe would start up again, and the Pax Americana would be over. We would have to seriously be in dire straits to neglect our obligations to western civilization in light of so many forces around the world seeking to destroy it, however. Both sides would suffer significantly in terms of trade, likely increasing their dependence on Asia and Africa as both resource/product producers and markets. I don't believe the non western world would fail to notice such a sea change in world politics, and would swiftly move to drive further wedges between the historical allies and get as many concessions out of both sides as possible. Plenty more would happen but it is late at night here and I'm tired.

[SnowedIn]

The first question isn't that, it would be what are the consequences for Europe. Would there be issue for the U. S? Sure. Mostly economic. But Europe without NATO is a very uncertain and ambiguous place. No one for a second should think that the EU as an organization is capable of holding off Russia or China from whatever it is that they want.

[exitseven]

I am not sure. If we had leadership that followed
American First policies and we were energy efficient once again, made our own pharmaceuticals, had micro chip factories that could supply our manufacturers and we had a strong military we could get along quite well and supply the rest of the world with oil and natural gas.
Since we have no energy production and China makes all the prescription meds and computer chips we would be screwed.

[RyanEC]

I don’t think any European country is economically powerful enough to become a hegemonic power over Europe, not even Germany.


I think if such a scenario took place then America would lose influence in Europe.


Ideally though I would want European nations and the United States to have closer ties with a more equal relationship.

[OddBeMe]

Ehh, probably not much different. The EU is kinda that power, based on votes from each member country. The African Union is similar, but obvi with problems. But it has done a lot of good.

I always thought the Mid East needed a power broker and someone to take accountability. And if it were Iran, all the better.

[abc3643]

No significant difference. And, I doubt that would happen anywhere because of the Eurozone which causes these countries to become more and more economically integrated.