If an alliance between France, Germany and Russia were to form, what would be the geopolitical consequences?

[Julie4]

[nightdrot]

Well, it is no really possible to answer the question because it is predicated on so many other questions:

1) What caused this alliance? Was it a reaction to a challenge from outside Europe? If so, from whom? If not, what internal dynamic was at work to bring these three powers together?

2) Does this alliance negate NATO and the EU or does it complement them? This is a huge question, particularly in its implications for Russia if this alliance does complement NATO and/or the EU. It is an equally huge question for Germany and France if it the alliance is opposed or at least outside NATO and the EU.

3) What are the terms of the alliance? Does it include security assurances? If so, does it include provisions for "an attack upon one is an attack upon all?" Does it have any trade or other economic provisions?

The list goes on. Without knowing the answer to these subsidiary questions - and there are others - the main question is too abstract or theoretical to answer in any substantive detail. It could just as easily be an alliance aimed at hemming in one of the participants as it could be an alliance of all three aimed at some outside power or powers.

That all said, given that such an alliance would presumably be aimed at securing the balance in Europe, the main beneficiary would be Germany. The German problem - as summed up by the American former Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger - was that Germany was too weak to conquer the world, but too strong to fit securely within the European balance of power.

The purpose of French foreign and military policy was first to keep Germany divided and after 1871 and German unification to keep it hemmed in as much as possible. The purpose of Russian foreign policy was to export foodstuffs and raw materials to Europe, to secure a defensive perimeter in eastern Europe against a threat from the West, and to thereby give Russia a free hand in central Asia and - to a lesser extent - the Middle East.

If an alliance is created that, at least in the short term, somehow secures French and Russian interests, that would presumably mean that Germany no longer faces a challenge from either power or both in combination against it. This then allows Germany to exploit its economic advantages - it has the largest and most technologically advanced economy of all three countries - as well as build up its armed forces and equip it with the most modern weapons, perhaps including cyber, bio, chemical and thermonuclear weapons.

In that context, Germany would become the biggest power and the pivot on which the alliance would turn. This inherently enhancing Germany's freedom of action and allowing it to play France and Russia off against one another by offering each certain benefits in return for German advantage.

This likely being why such an alliance has never developed. Even after two world wars and the Cold War, the inherent structure of the European balance of power remains. With each state making sure to secure its own position by playing off the others against each other.

Thus why, for example, NATO, which was designed, as Lord Ismay said, to "... keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down." Thus also why France wanted the creation of the "euro" and Germany - albeit quietly and ultimately unsuccessfully - opposed it.

Any alliance then that bridged the differences of all three would have to - at least in the long run - give the advantage to the biggest power and that would be Germany. Freeing up German economic advantages and widening its scope for diplomatic freedom of action.

Of course, that is at the highest level of generality and abstraction. The questions noted above matter. However, in general, if Germany is not hemmed in by France and Russia, as history shows, the Germans will not miss an opportunity.

[ohshee]

First of all they would be making a bold statement NATO is meant to be a good thing but when you have change all the time it's just a matter of time until NATO BE COMES SO BIG AND GETS GREEDY like us playing out right in front of our eyes right now just like our our politicians are doing to us right now the same thing will happen with NATO politicians I have become greedy they have become out of control they're supposed to be in office to make the best decisions for us they're taking us down the rabbit hole NATO will become the same way France Germany Russia she's what's going on they don't want they do to come in and take charge of their country and then they were under their thumb people say this won't happen I say bulshit if it's happening right now in front of us it's going to happen sooner or later they're being smart about it they know where the world's headed where we are all headed and they were trying to protect their countries instead of having one New World Order they want to stay independent

[Zeldaismyqueen]

Russia is currently hated by everyone in the west so it wouldn’t make sense and everyone would be confused

[WhitneySnow]

I think that’s unlikely. France and Germany are part of NATO and Russia hates NATO.

[NamerOfStars]

Germany changing the black and yellow stripes on its flag to white and blue (seriously, Europe, is it THAT hard to come up with a creative design? Hundreds of years of history and culture, and the best you can do is "three colored stripes, yet again"?). More to the point, after two centuries of constanly beating the stuffing out of one another, I find it hard ho imagine those three militarily uniting. Some kind of economic partnership, maybe, but full military cooperation inevitably degradel in by mind into some kind of three stooges skit.

... which could artually be an advantage; such an arrangement would doubtless be seen as a threat to American interests (regardless of whether that was true), but whah are they going to do about it when Putin'l bonking Macron on the head with a hammer, and then Merkel walks up and pokes him in the eye?

[Julie4]

yes the USA would consider this as a threat to their interests, France would have no interest in this alliance because Germany would be the economic power and Russia the military power.

[NamerOfStars]

Frankly, that might be part of the appeal. They couldn't compete economically with Germany or militarily with Russia, so why not join 'ew if you can't beat 'em?

[Julie4]

I believe that Putin considers France and Germany as doggies of the USA

[NamerOfStars]

Doubtless; he grew up during the Cold War.

[ChrisMaster69]

It would be WW3 or 4

Non of them could really be trusted not to stab the other in the back with the help of one of the others.

they would 100% turn on one of the others in the alliance.

[Julie4]

If there would be a war, which is unlikely today with nuclear power, it would probably come from the USA and the UK. Because such an alliance would threaten American interests. Brzezinski explains it very well in his book The Grand Chessboard.

However note that for my country this alliance would not make sense because my country will be weakened in such an alliance.

[ChrisMaster69]

Ignore all the other countries, based on each of those in the Alliance none would be able to trust the other two not to stab them in the back.

[Julie4]

France is a middle power, with a military and economic power that ranks 7th in the world, too weak to represent an economic threat to Germany and too weak to represent a military threat to Russia.

Germany an economic giant but a weak army unable to represent a military threat for France and Russia, and Russia a military giant but too weak economically.

In these criteria none of the protagonists has the possibility of imposing themselves.

But in such an alliance France would be marginalized, because Germany would be the dominant economic power and Russia the military power.

[TommyMountainFigure]

It depends on who else was in the alliance, and who was the enemy.

[Dargil]

France and Germany are in NATO now. Russia is jealous of both.

[Julie4]

Doubtless; he grew up during the Cold War.

[Julie4]

sorry I made a mistake. Putin considers France and Germany submissive to the Americans

[jshm2]

That was what the Kingdom of Prussia was about.

It didn't work out.

[888theGreat]

Stupid theory since those two are NATO which Russia sees as an enemy.

[Avicenna]

I think that could only be an anti-US/UK alliance.

[andreasderjuengere]

I think that Erdogan will be upset about it :D

[msc545]

Better flags!