What are your predictions for USA 2022 gubernatorial races?

[Cubus]

I expect Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, Kansas and Wisconsin to be the closest ones.

About the rest:
- California, Illinois, Hawaii, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachussets, Maryland - Safe D
- Colorado, Pennsylvania - Likely D
- New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, New York, Maine - Lean D
- Oklahoma, Georgia - Lean R
- Texas, Florida, Ohio, Alaska - Likely R
- Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, Vermont, New Hampshire - Safe R

[Lucy68]

Alabama most likely and strictly Republican

Georgia it can go 50/50 so most likely round 2

Most of the states you listed above especially California will strongly be Democratic

Basically all southern states will be Republican

All northern plus west coast most likely all Democratic

[Cubus]

Kemp has much higher chance in a gubernatorial race than Walker in a Senate race, because he is a competent candidate.

[Lucy68]

So there's a possibility Brian Kemp can win this

[Cubus]

He has over 50% of the vote in all November polls.

[Daniela1982]

All I can say is WHF is going on with all the California residents who voted in the dumb ass Newsome again? They must not pay taxes or something is all I can figure out.

[Cubus]

They don't know it can be different.

At least some of them, because people are moving from California to Texas

[Daniela1982]

That is why they are moving from California as the people in power here are idiots. They cater to the homeless and illegals while the citizens are being taxed into debt.

[John_Doesnt]

It's really sad that over half of the Republicans running are election deniers and many of them are predicted to win. There's probably gonna be cheers from MAGA fans when they find out people who reject our democracy won.

Liberty dies, with thunderous applause.

[Cubus]

Even sadder is that Democrats put a lot of money to help these election deniers, such as Mastriano, win primaries.

[John_Doesnt]

It wasn't Democrats that are doing that, it is the macabre of satan worshippers who eat children blood at pizza-gate.

[MaxRobespierre]

@john I always thought you were an edgy right winger. I am surprised.

[OlderAndWiser]

I expect the Republicans to pick up perhaps 2-3 governorships.

[Cubus]

Which ones?

[OlderAndWiser]

Maybe Michigan and Nevada.

[Jersey2]

New York will be the most interesting. Will a Republican win there given crime in NYC and inflation? I wonder. Some NYC voters are tired of crime but will it be enough of them. Will Democrats sit at home, I wonder. If this goes Red, that’s bad news for Democrats. If they hold on and it is close, it’s still bad news.

[Cubus]

So far polls show Democrats in New York holding on but very close unless Zeldin overperform polls (which is possible). Still, losing New York would be a disaster for Democrats.

[Jersey2]

Polls are usually skewed to Democrats. I think this is because some people don’t want to say they are voting Republican, some say they will vote but really won’t and that is the democrats more times than not especially in a midterm and the polling can be skewed (I experienced this as I was polled in 2016 and when I said I was voting for Trump she promptly hung up instead of completing the poll. I read that others experienced the same during that time). So, we will see.

[Cubus]

That's why I said: "unless Zeldin overperform polls (which is possible)"

But still - if Republicans won in New York, that would be big.

[WhiteBoyChill]

definitely Kansas and Wisconsin but its unfortunate I haven’t heard a single Republican podcaster bullish on Pennsylvania. Doug Mastriano would’ve been great. But I’m most likely still going to be terribly dissapointed by our missed opportunities.

[dustybiker]

It’ll be a month before ballot drop boxes and mail-ins are sorted.

[greenice27]

I think the Republican party wins in the House of Representatives, and the Democrats win more seats in the Senate.

[Cubus]

Thank you for the comment, but this question is about gubernators, not Congress.

[ManOnFire]

Not sure, but disappointed that Stacey Abrams lost Georgia.

[shortster]

Oregon, Michigan, New York, and Kansas will all flip red. Everything else will stay the same.

[Cubus]

There's higher chance that Wisconsin would flip R than Michigan.

All the rest are possible, although New York flipping R would be a huge upset.

[shortster]

Maybe, but these are my prognostications. Though I am concerned that Oz might have reverse coat tails in Pennsylvania with Fetterman being in such a bad shape.

[Cubus]

You're talking about Senate races, right?

This question is about governor races, as some other dude asked a question about Senate races, and I don't want to rival him. But you can leave your opinion about it if you want

[shortster]

Just in the sense that Oz helps the GOP candidate for governor in Pennsylvania. Don't really know who are running for that seat since most of the coverage of Pennsylvania has been focused on the Senate race. I don't expect much ticket splitting tonight; but if it does happen Pennsylvania is the prime candidate.

[Cubus]

Mastriano doesn't have a chance to win gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania. He's too far to the right for a swing state.

[shortster]

Maybe in a normal year; but with Fetterman and the economy it is going to be closer than it would otherwise be.

[Cubus]

Well, when Oz and Fetterman are neck in neck, Mastriano is down 10% in polls.

He said he would be "that conservative that DeSantis would look like an amateur".

[Sixgun77]

It'll take a miracle for Maryland to stop being a leftist shithole.

[whirled_up_girl]

I agree I think your assessment is right.

[Yoyoyok]

Zeldin is a loser.