In brief - very brief - it is not likely that the United States would use nuclear weapons if China invades Taiwan. The stipulation being the assumption that China would not use its' own nuclear weapons.
US military doctrine in the post-Cold War-era has been limited to nuclear retaliatory strategy. This in contrast to the Cold War where the USA kept the nuclear option open were US conventional forces pressed "right to the wall." (Hence, the famous - or infamous, depending on your point of view - "escalation ladder."
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would not likely pose an existential threat to the USA, but it would give the USA diplomatic leverage with the rest of the world. It being likely that other powers would seek to support the USA, so long as doing so did not negatively impact their immediate national security.
In short, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would make China the "international bad guy." The USA could play this to its' diplomatic and economic advantage. However, if other powers were to feel they were drifting into a nuclear fight, any US diplomatic advantage might be lost.
Hence - and there are MANY specifics here we can only speculate on - the USA would be more likely to play a Chinese invasion of Taiwan to its' diplomatic advantage than it would respond with an all out military conflict, let alone a nuclear one.
First of all, Taiwan is not an essential national interest. Keep in mind that for most of US history Taiwan was under Chinese or Japanese rule - and this did not dramatically impact US national interests.
Further, you asked about nuclear weapons. You said nothing about conventional forces. Those would likely have to be deployed in he region, particularly to assure regional allies like Japan, Australia, New Zealand, etc.
Even then, the US already has a military presence in the Philippines and that would likely serve as the platform for any demonstration of US power. To be sure, although Taiwan has some economic and even a bit of geographic value to the USA, it simply is not essential enough to merit a nuclear reply. (Hence, also, by the way, why the USA allowed the Taiwan treaty to lapse after it recognized Beijing.)
Suffice to add there are means - diplomatic, economic - to protecting US interests short of war.
Oh, that's because I thought you'd written that, hence my question. That's my misunderstanding. I'm sorry.
As for the rest I agree, however, the Indo-Pacific region is going to become the most important region in terms of wealth, the most developed countries, etc. Letting China impose itself in the region is really not good, in Taiwan there's more than just TSMC at stake.
I agree, for the US China invading Taiwan would actually be a massive PR boost for swaying more countries to our side
In reality, this is already the case to some extent. The only state in the region close to China's borders that is not hostile to it is Russia.
But to think that economic sanctions and diplomatic condemnation will prevent China from winning the war in Taiwan seems to me to be more of a dream than a reality.
Actually, Russia and China have a long history of hostility to each other - even when both were communist. While it is not likely that Russia would lift a finger for Taiwan and Moscow has not interest in that area, there is little doubt that Russia would see rising global hostility to China as a chance to advance its' own interests.
This is three dimensional chess. China would likely take Taiwan, but as likely as not that would facilitate a USA-Russia reconciliation that would work against Chinese strategic and diplomatic interests.
Reconciliation between Russia and the USA? Maybe, but I'm not convinced, especially when you consider that the Russian economy is increasingly dependent on China. What's more, if China invades Taiwan, there's nothing to say that Russia won't take advantage of the situation to try and expand into Europe. So what you're saying is possible, but it seems to me more of a gamble than a certainty.
What's more, even if it's not the same situation, Mr Trump, despite the conciliation he's trying to achieve with Mr Putin, is getting nothing concrete from Putin, not even fine words.
You keep defining this in terms of either/or. It is more nuanced than that.
Does Russia want to cut a deal with the USA? Nope. Does she, however, want to face a stronger China, either? Also nope.
It is that "gray area" that is the USA's playing field.
To be fair, Mr. Trump is a playing a Machiavellian game. However, he is not a self-aware Machiavellian and that is his Achille's heel. We are no longer, as we were from the end of World War I through the end of the Cold War in an era of ideological conflict. The situation is more like Europe pre-WWI - balance of power, spheres of influence and so on.
Mr. Trump instinctively plays that game. What is unclear if he does so in a self-aware way. If no, the scenario you paint is a likely outcome. If yes, on the other hand, he will cut a deal on Ukraine - which after all has been under Russian rule for most of American history to no particularly bad effect on the USA or the West more generally - and pivot the Russians to face China, which is one of Moscow's historic opponents after all.
To be sure, not an assured outcome. However, the picture you paint is equally uncertain, depending on the skill of the players, so to speak.
Russia does not seem to want to conclude any agreement for the time being, at least as far as Ukraine is concerned. Honestly, though, Monsieur Trump is offering Russia a more than honourable way out. But he seems convinced that he can win this war completely. Is he wrong? Il semble que non.
As for the rest, I was just responding to the scenario you describe, which once again seems more of a gamble than a certain scenario, for the reasons I have already mentioned. And I didn't say that my scenario was going to happen, you see I had added a slight nuance.
Incidentally, I would like to add that I find it hypocritical for many European countries, including my own, to take moral positions on Mr Trump's actions regarding Ukraine. Because the Europeans seem to have forgotten that in terms of financial aid to Ukraine they are not up to the task (with the exception of a few countries). And that realistically we will have to go and talk to Mr Putin.
Very briefly, Russia does not wish to conclude a deal because Ukraine is so central to Russia's security interests. Mr. Putin is gambling that if he prolongs the war long enough, Ukraine will collapse or at least accept a peace on terms largely favorable to Russia.
As far as other Europeans, Ukraine is more strategically important to them, but they have also, historically relied on the USA since 1945 to secure their interests. However, as the global dynamic is shifting, they will, in the future, no longer be able to do so.
Nobody is using nukes until some unhinged dictator does. America may have an absurd president but he's not a dictator. And China dictators yes? But not unhinged, China are ran by good buisness men almost like Trump would want but can't have.
Such men aren't unhinged enough to do such a big risk when not backed into a corner which they aren't as China is highly a successful country.
Meaning the actual country that is likley to use them is Russia because Putin is a dictator and seems to be unhinged. Though I think he's held off by others around him and he has kids. Having kids typically means you have a lot to lose, so ruining the future for them by getting everywhere nuked seems... Unlikley.
What it boils down to is how confident America feels about intercepting Chinese missiles. Someone will have calculated by now how many are likely to get through. If some intelligence officer convinces Trump the Chinese rockers are crap and won't make it over the Pacific them the chance of America bombing China goes up.
Worth noting Europe's been flexing its muscles in the region too. China could choose to nuke France instead thus avoiding a war with America.
NATO guidelines for unidentified troops, 2023 states: if unable to identify troops in the field, fire one shot above their heads. If they return with rapid rifle fire they are British, with machine gun fire they are German, with an air strike they are American, if they immediately surrender they are French.
Nothing, just thought it might raise a smile, sorry. Re your answer, my point is china could target a weaker opponent as a way of demonstrating strength without directly taking on America. They could see any nato country as a legitimate target.
It raised more than a smile, confirming 🤣🤣
You know nukes are a last resort and need a “this was for our national security” lie, right? The Taiwan situation is not crazy enough to justify them.
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Forget the risk of nuclear retaliation - the economic damage that would be caused by the US going to war (nuclear or conventional) with China, is enough to ensure that it will never happen, under any circumstances (the US could hardly continue trading normally with their enemy, and ceasing trade with China is simply not an option, as the recent tariff nonsense has already demonstrated).
But then China isn't going to invade Taiwan anyway, for much the same reason. If they were really hellbent on the idea, they would have done it by now. They're just maintaining readiness, in case a clear opportunity presents itself, but there's no reason to believe that one will.
I think USA should put a lot of troops in Taiwan no protect China off. If China takes Taiwan then its WW3 - i fucking guarantee it. I understand some of you are stupid americans that go "America first" etc. How bout Taiwan produce 60% of semiconductors, 90 percent of the most sophisticated chips. I know you stupid americans think i talk about pringles... But if that little island get occupied by China - then China gonna dictate how much technology you gonna get. Those chips that Taiwan produces are in EVERYTHING - your phone, your car, your washing machine, your tv etc. Sure some of it produce Europe and USA also but not as much as Taiwan. So prices will also go up.
Long story short while China become more advanced country with super AI´s then rest of us will live in the stoneage.
Shawn Ryan interview:
https://www.youtube.com/embed/OkThSkybTpM
Iran bought their missile defense systems from China. They didn't see America coming and they didn't even know were were there until we told them after we left. China is in the same position when it comes to facing the USA. They are naked and vulnerable.
It's unlikely anything would happen if China invades Taiwan and its just a matter of time before they do. It wouldn't be smart to start a war with China if you can't form a coalition. In the last 6 months the entire world has gotten friendlier with China as every country other than the US has sought out new trading partners and built new relationships. For many countries, China has replaced the US as an ally.
they might threaten it, but china is nuclear as well. no.
they'd maybe try to control chinese navy decisively. that's raelly the threat...
the other threat is all the endless ships china sends to taiwan on a weekly basis filled with goods taiwan buys and consumes. where would they get all their stuff from if china stopped shipping?
it's chinese and everyone knows that, just a question of governance and control.
The CCP would likely blockade Taiwan and shoot a lot of missiles at and around it- access denial is their primary strategy. That isn't a situation anyone would use nukes in. That is not to say that Taiwan isn't very important it is, but the danger of nuclear war hugely outweighs that importance.
How would it be sacrificing Washington? But if Trump truly believed in America First, he'd just stay out of it and let Taiwan deal with their own problems. But with Trump, you never know. If he did, he'd have to make sure there's no one left to retaliate
They'd probably target more than Washington
And that's why I said there should be no one left to retaliate
m Of course not. The idea is to have Taiwan armed to the teeth so that Red China bleeds men and materiel with every wave they send over the sea and lose. Ukraine shows how it’s done.
I can assure you, they won’t. Russia tried to defeat vs Afghanistan for ten years and in the end had to walk away.
The international coalition, including the United States walked away from Afghanistan. Can’t really compare those two scenarios.
How would civilians know this? Hopefully not. The use of nuclear weapons is scary. I think we all need to stop invading places and just be nicer to each other. It's getting ridiculous how much religion and greed makes our amazingly smart as well as completely idiotic and stupid species act like lunatics. I should say this is more for governments than avg citizens of course.
@Julie07 Oh sure, we will Nuke.. China, North Korea, Iran, and Moscow in that order.
Did I forget anybody?
No, but we have prepared and trained the Taiwanese military. At least S. F did a few years ago. At least TSMC semiconductors have been building new state of the art facilities in the U. S. Fun fact, they attempted to develop an atomic weapons program in the early 1980's However Reagan stepped in last minute telling them not to. So they decided to export semiconductors instead. Now they build all the world advanced chips that go in rockets ironically.
LOL, why would China invade land it already owns?
You're aware it's the USA that wants to invade Taiwan, just like it did Iraq, Ukraine, Iran, Afghanistan, Columbia... the list goes on.
Taiwan may nominally be recognized as a part of China under international law, but administratively Taiwan still functions as if it were an independent country, with its own elected government
Taht would not help anyone and radiation would cause problems for years to come. I think they will use conventional weapons.
No nucleair warfare is a mutual death sentence. They try to scare us with nucleair warfare but no country is dumb enough to do it because it will result in their own anuahulation aswell
I don't know why the Chinese government still wants to kill all the anti-communist Chinese that fled to Taiwan. They need to get over it already.
Won't come to that. China is watching the Ukraine war and they don't want that. They want Taiwan intact with her people, industries and economy.
US should just start to mind their own business. And stop making shit everywhere.
u No, we would not. Send troops and/or weapons and money though? More than likely.
i fear they may. it will be the stupidest shit the usa ever did and that bar is quite high but i think trump is dumb enough to do that.
Seriously? You think the same isolationist guy that wants to scale back US involvement worldwide, is the kind of guy to hurl nuclear bombs at will?
@WhiteBoyChill he's not at all scaling back us involvement. he's scaling back the us expenses and is trying to get Europe to participate more in the nato goals he basically dictates. remember. he threw bombs on iran for bathically nothing. some collateral damage hit an American embassy (alledgedly) and he's already bombing the shit out of iran. iran is nothing. taiwan however is crucial to the survival of the usa, so i think that considering his reaction to minor offenses, his reaction to actually big problems will be equally exaggerated and undiplomatic.
He didn’t “bomb the shit out of Iran”
The US literally only targetted 3 of Iran’s nuclear sites after an agreement couldn’t be reached in 90 days
@WhiteBoyChill yeah i bet these nuclear sites weren't at all vital to iran. i bet that was very much comparable to losing an embassy in some far away country to them xD
I doubt the US would even send its own troops to Taiwan tbh.
Our response would basically just be a remake of the Ukraine situation.
Arms and weapons, but nothing more
Unlikely. However some simulations where China won included them deploying bio weapons on US soil and Mr. Cheetos isn't exactly known for being cool headed.
I would say no. But only as an extreme last resort. Then many people will die or be vaporized in many countries!
Trump will put a bow on it & grift it to Xi before he kowtows before real wall builders
The real question should be is the US prepared to sacrifice a few cities in order to give even more money to the war industry in the US?
One nuke = all the nukes. There isn't a one nuke scenario. Mutually assured destruction
No. We have much better weapons. Source. My best friend makes the weapons.
No, because China has them too, as well as their allies. That would cause WW3.
No, but China will pay a price.
Exactly. The USA is the world's leading military power. But there are criteria that must not be overlooked. Industrial power, the country that wins wars is the country that has the most capacity to produce weapons, this is not to the advantage of the USA, American industrial capacity is much lower than China. The second important point is the cost of production, as China has the greatest purchasing power in the world, it costs it less to manufacture these weapons, boats etc than in the USA.
These two criteria must be taken into account because they are crucial.
I seriously have my doubts
Trump is so unpredictable so who knows
No. We won't need to.
Only as a last resort. (MAD)
Probably not
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