Should the USA defend Taiwan if China invades?

[Julie4]

[Effably]

Controlling and propagandizing Taiwan against China has been part of the U. S strategy to limit China since WW2. It is not a matter of defending Taiwan but defending USA's position as a defacto world leader. Taiwan, like Ukraine, is set up to be a shield against another superpower.

USA will not war with China. It is not a war USA can win without nukes - and China also has nukes. Please understand that China is 3x the size of USA and that is before we count in allies like India. Now if USA has Europe on their side? Fine enough, India won't join, China will go back to peaceful progress. But USA alone is, while not weak, also not the strongest superpower.

If China resorts to violence, which is unlikely since that is not how their current leadership operates, USA will be outraged but unable to stop it.

It is important to note that unlike Ukraine and Russia most Taiwanese see themselves as the real China, and already Chinese. Their unification is more a question of how and in what way than if.

[Cormac995]

Ethically yes. Strategically? We have no choice we absolutely have to defend Tiawan from China at all costs even WW3. Losing Tiawan will endanger every single American ally in the pacific. China's ambitions don't end with Tiawan, they want Vietnam and the Philippines Japan and even Australia too! Tiawan is the front line in the defensive Island chain, they're the tip of the spear at China's throat.

Further they have some of the most important industry infrastructure in the world and produces the vast majority of the worlds semiconductors. If the western sphere loses Tiawan everything from your car to your computer to your phone to your fucking toaster is now at the mercy of China's good will. Defense of Tiawan is 100% necessary for global safety and the safety of the western sphere.

[midnightmoon05]

Would it make sense for the US to make their own chips?

[Cormac995]

@midnightmoon05 in theory it would be a great idea for national security, but the problem is we're a services-based economy not an industrial one. We would have to spend decades building new infostructure and training staff signing contracts and resource deals etc. It's not impossible but it would take decades and isn't necessary with America's economic model.

Honestly from a cost perspective outsourcing makes more sense which is part of why we do it. People forget this is a global economy. Do you know why everyone hates America right now? Trumps trade war is fucking every economy on the planet right now because the world runs on the US dollar. Look at the DOW Jones right now and see how it's falls correlate to trumps actions.

Also, that still doesn't change the fact that Taiwan's government is western aligned and democratic power that benefits more people than just America. They have customers all over the world and again this is a global economy. If Tiawan falls our allies around the world will be fucked for semiconductors even if we aren't and that means that their industry and infostructure would fall
apart and again, that would bite us because we trade with Europe.

From a strategic and power projection standpoint Tiawan is one of the most important allies we have. They're the front line against China if they attack and we do business with their defense industry as well. losing Tiawan is non-viable. If we lose Tiawan, then Vietnam, South Korea, the Philippines, Japan Australia and all of the islands and territories in the pacific will have a knife to their throat. Just their geographical position and political weight alone make it an unacceptable loss strategically.

[Julie4]

@Cormac995 👏

Chips are NOT the key American strategic interest in Taiwan.

The physical infrastructure can be destroyed. A lot of the key engineers can be exfil’d to the West.

Would be bad to lose but not the core interest. This is misunderstood by many.

The reason Taiwan is so so so important to 🇺🇸 strategic interests is bc it would be extremely difficult (maybe impossible) for 🇺🇸 to maintain its forward presence in the western pacific if Taiwan is conquered by China. Since the 1st island chain would be shattered. A massive island in the middle of the 1st island chain would be converted into an unsinkable PLAN carrier group. And a huge naval base. Which means Chinese warships could pretty easily move into the pacific east of the 1st island chain. Which would be catastrophic for Japan and the Philippines. And to some extent also Australia. And the US would be deeply humiliated after spending many decades suggesting if not saying that it will defend Taiwan. 🇺🇸 credibility would be very badly damaged if not destroyed.

Add to this the fact that China will use this to project its power on a global scale, and could deprive the USA and the West of the world's largest economic market.

This would impoverish Westerners in a major, major way.

[Cormac995]

This is all correct and I' aware of the strategic aspect of it in our first Island chain too I said as much already. That said you went into a lot more detail and all of its correct to my knowledge. I've been following the ongoing cold war closely and The CCP is making moves and preparing to invade.

I've done years of research into everything you've said and reading your statement none of it conflicts with the info I've found through my own research so good job it looks like you know what you're talking about. I do think you're underestimating the loss of their semiconductor industry. I'm not saying it can't be fixed if it happens but until it is fixed it's going to be absolute hell when that supply disappears suddenly.

It would instantly cause a scarcity of one of the most important items in modern tech right now and until the production was recaptured or moved to another nation we'd be in deep shit. I know there are other places to buy semiconductors, but Tiawan makes more than anyone else in the world. It might not be the biggest factor but it's an incredibly notable one.

Also, part of why I'm worried about the semiconductors is even if it isn't crippling it will hurt like hell. War is expensive and costs a lot of resources to carry out. A steady supply of electrical parts will be crucial for rebuilding infostructure if we have a massive hit into the speed at which we can produce the global recovery after WW3 will be harder, take longer and be more expensive too.

We still haven't even finish recovering from the last two world wars. People forget the damage war does. Part of why many places in the south are so badly impoverished is because of "Shermans March to the Sea." The value of monetary damage done in modern money was in the was in the ballpark of 100 million dollars back then. Into today's money that means Sherman sacked roughly 1.5 billion in modern American dollars. That's what worries me about the semiconductors. The recovery time.

[JesseP1nk]

@midnightmoon05 Are you willing to pay for next iPhone for 10 000 dollars for example? Or for dishwasher 3 time the price you are paying now. That is the things you americans do not understand. You want to isolate yourself from the rest of the world, because that is too expensive (If its Ukraine, Israel or Taiwan) , but in the longrun that is gonna bite your from the ass. If Russia owns most of the Europe, China owns Taiwan (since USA does not wanna spend money to defending those) Then who will sanction who and add tariffs?

[Cormac995]

@JesseP1nk THIS!!! Thank you! I've been screaming this to anyone who will listen since the day Putin launched his war!

[RavVid]

Taiwan is also important as a freight center by the way. China has begun similar harassment of Japan as it has done to the Phillipines. Our HMAS Toowoomba was attacked in the Sea of Japan as it was transiting to take up station on North Korea. If allowed too China could blockade Japan and make life difficult for oil and other other imports.

However Japan has a significant conventional submarine fleet and does have capabilities. For us (Australia) we have vast maritime approaches. The Pacific, Indian, and Great Southern Oceans plus several Seas of significance. Conventional submarines are not useful to us because of range and is why we are going to the expense of acquiring nuclear powered subs.

You are entirely right that Taiwan stops China from projecting power beyond the first island chain. The South China Sea is largely lost because it would be very dangerous for the US to attempt to operate in it in a hot situation other than transiting through in freedom of the seas operations. Air craft carriers are far too valuable to risk lightly. Recently one of our Poseidens was fired upon overflying the SCS.

I have seen India mentioned as a Chinese ally but that is not correct. India is a non-aligned fence sitter but really do have good reason to not like China. During the depths of covid, China invaded India. It is also diverting rivers that India needs to remain undiverted.

It also seems to me that Indians are far less non aligned than their political elites. It would be a long game to bring India more strongly into the western fold however.

China will continue it's bellicose gray zone tactics because it is winning with them. Their Coast guard is far from a civilian force but we allow them to use these tactics. It would be better if we viewed it as it is; part of it's naval forces making military attacks.

Western media is all too ready to accept China's claims and rejection of the UNCLOS determination on the South China Sea.

[Cormac995]

@RavVid China is done waiting for Tiawan unification they're building a fleet of landing craft as we speak and militarizing their economy. They're propping up Russia long enough to help wear down and exhaust the west before they make their strike. War is coming 2 years at most and we'll have WW3 mark my words it's about to happen.

[RavVid]

Of course a very simple response to a China invasion of Taiwan would be simply to blockade the Malacca straits. China has 90 days of oil reserves so it cannot function for long if oil is not flowing. A warning of China's intentions would be increased purchases.

Overall the direct target needs to be China's economy and the core objective being to send them back to the paddy fields.

[Cormac995]

@RavVid It's already crashing in my opinion it's part of why they're invading. I think they're hoping to stop or slow their economic decline by re industrializing with a war time economy.

[NoDecision]

Why not? We helped Ukraine so why not another down-an-out? I don't think they could throw off an attack by themselves.

[itsannalee]

The pic you post isn’t even China, but Taiwan 😖
I live not far from that building

[itsannalee]

Ohh my bad, i misread

[Julie4]

Are you Taiwanese?

[itsannalee]

No i’m not, but i moved here 11 years ago

[Julie4]

What is your nationality?

[itsannalee]

I’m Indonesian

[Julie4]

What made you leave your country?

[itsannalee]

I moved abroad since i was teen

[Julie4]

Oh ok.

[molonski2]

Family must have been elite to get out , never forget your actual heritage.

[Zack-Bann]

I don’t know a rerun of ‘Nam is the best approach
But if china takes over the biggest computer chip manufacturer in the world then the results will be catastrophic
IT advancements are more important than weapon advancements in our day and age
That’s why we have a new iPhone every year but new gun models only come out every ten or so years

[Julie4]

Taiwan is not important because of these chips, even if there were no chips, Taiwan would still be very important strategically.

[Oncewildtwiceburned]

Bruh. The rulers of the world are in open competition. Its a high school boys locker room on steroids, this isn’t a unicorn paradise. Weapons will always be important. Superconductors and processors can be manufactured anywhere. However, I don’t think a bunch of young men should be drafted to walk into a meat grinder for rich old psychopathic men from legacy families either

[molonski2]

No , China will not do it via War , it will eventually go in similar manner to HK , there is little doubt she may remain somewhat autonomous , but China will control , to a degree they already do.

There will be no place for the USA to be involved , Taiwan will become a part of the great red empire , just with some degree of autonomy.

[andreasderjuengere]

Portugal historically should feel more obliged to assist Formosa to remain free.

(a paradox, of course :D )

Personally, I'd say that it's up to ''Taiwan'' to request support from whatever party they feel associated with.

Where I'd feel better if Taiwan isn't absorbed by China - which would mean: extended territory to ''legally'' rape our oceans with their fishing industry.

[lightbulb27]

What do you think? Why exactly should we go and die? If you go and visit, you'll see it is mostly china, except with democracy and voting.

that's nice, but worth dying for?

I'm on the side of... let them defend themselves...

[Julie4]

I'll give you the same answer I gave in a comment.

Chips are NOT the key American strategic interest in Taiwan.

The physical infrastructure can be destroyed. A lot of the key engineers can be exfil’d to the West.

Would be bad to lose but not the core interest. This is misunderstood by many.

The reason Taiwan is so so so important to 🇺🇸 strategic interests is bc it would be extremely difficult (maybe impossible) for 🇺🇸 to maintain its forward presence in the western pacific if Taiwan is conquered by China. Since the 1st island chain would be shattered. A massive island in the middle of the 1st island chain would be converted into an unsinkable PLAN carrier group. And a huge naval base. Which means Chinese warships could pretty easily move into the pacific east of the 1st island chain. Which would be catastrophic for Japan and the Philippines. And to some extent also Australia. And the US would be deeply humiliated after spending many decades suggesting if not saying that it will defend Taiwan. 🇺🇸 credibility would be very badly damaged if not destroyed.

Add to this the fact that China will use this to project its power on a global scale, and could deprive the USA and the West of the world's largest economic market.

This would impoverish Westerners in a major, major way.

[DryGermanGuy]

The same answer I gave about Ukraine - more important is to deliver enough weapon systems and ammunition for them. The Taiwanese will know how to defend their island.

[Julie4]

Taiwan alone? Faced with more than a million Chinese soldiers, who have the world's largest production capacity and the world's greatest purchasing power?

[DryGermanGuy]

And Russia was considered the world's second strongest army, three years later they are stuck in Ukraine with 750.000+ casualties, converted T-64 tanks and North Korean mercenaries. It's all about the price that a defender fighting back will cost an attacker. Russia apparently has forgotten the lesson they got in Afghanistan, but they will learn them again.

[Julie4]

Yes I know this ranking but honestly this ranking even before the war in Ukraine was ridiculous and it is still today

I do not see how Taiwan would stand up to China alone. It's not a credible scenario

[DryGermanGuy]

China could have ten million men under arms and 10.000 tanks, if they can't get them to the actual battle fields, how much fighting will they be able to do? Taiwan is an island.

[Julie4]

Yes, and you think the islands can't be invaded? You think the Chinese don't have brilliant minds that think about all these issues? Have you seen the special ships the Chinese build? Not to mention that blockading the island may also be an option.

[DryGermanGuy]

Everything and everywhere can be invaded. Again, it's about the PRICE of invasion. Short-term, medium-term, long-term. Taiwan sending 80% of Chinese troop transporters to the bottom of the ocean in the first ten days would be such a price.

[Julie4]

But Taiwan would pay more for it, and when you consider the benefits to China, it's more than just an option.

[DryGermanGuy]

Yeah, possibly, I haven't calculated out every detail, like a military analyst would. Of course any direct support from an Asian anti-Chinese coalition and/or the Americans would greatly improve the situation for Taiwan.

[Miristheiss]

My view is, we have known of this threat for decades. We should have already been stocking them up with all they need to defend themselves all of this time.

The work should already be done.

[NathanDavis]

it is going to defend those chips... that's for sure

[Dargil]

We have been patrolling then Taiwan Strait for years with Hunter Killer submarines. There will be no land invasion. There will be an air war. Japan, Philippines and South Korea are becoming prepared to defend them.

[Avicenna]

Yeah, but it's woefully underprepared to do so. Can't let the CCP just walk in and take over 90% of the world's high-end semiconductor production.

[DrPepper12]

Depends. If we can have SIGNIFICANT forces there prior to invasion then yes

Otherwise this is academic. China has war gamed taking the island in less than 18 hours

[Pohjolan]

Have you looked at the geography and the cities?
Its going to take way longer than 18 hours.
It might take 18 hours if they wargamed it like the nazis did before the battle of the Bulge just driving the distance on a tank.
A few traffic jams and AT-mines here and there and it won't be 18 hours.
It's just not going to happen.

[KostasKouvalis]

Probably. But just between you and me, I don't want my country involved in another foreign war

[Julie4]

Nobody wants war, but if a country threatens your national interests with armed force, what option do you have?

[RedInnocent69]

Like they did Ukraine? Not likely. The US is reverting to a feudalist mercantile system driven by spheres of influence. It won’t touch China in Asia

[Spencer10]

They should but I am fairly confident they would not. American promises mean nothing now.

[Shiprex]

Yes because it believes in the rules of law as being strong values as well as democracy.

[Joshydavid25]

I don't know if it should, but I think Taiwan should get some help at least..

[exitseven]

Yes, China cannot take over taiwan. I doubt Xi will make a move while Trump is president.

[DrPepper12]

You do not understand geopolitics then.

[exitseven]

@DrPepper12 President Xi does not have an adversary who has been bought and paid for anymore. He would not dare invade Taiwan while Trump is president.

[DrPepper12]

Uh huh. You still don't get it.

[jahaims]

We have to. Our economy relies on the chips made there.

[blackeagle007]

It’s not our fight. Look how the chaos we caused in Iraq.

[masterSir]

yes. I believe its in a treaty we have to. but we said the same thing about Ukraine in '94

[Anonymous]

Isn’t going to happen for at least 4 more years so relax.


If Kamala or her equal cheats their way into the White House you should be very concerned.

[Anonymous]

The USA needs to focus on purging the parasites of its own.

[Anonymous]

No, of course not, they are on a different continent.

[Anonymous]

I don't know , Im personally scared of china and war with them.

[Amy10223]

Yes, it should.

[FreyaRed]

Unlikely US will do.

[Alex-Snow]

Yes and we should resume helping Ukraine

[OddBeMe]

Yes, as in funding Taiwanese army- which we are.

[PaleDale]

Yes, it should. But it won't.

[msc545]

No. Let them defend themselves.

[4ngelic]

for sure

[fish5505_87]

Yes!

[switchboy01]

İ dont think so