Americans, do you think the US should defend Taiwan if China invades?

[Julie4]

[RavVid]

TSMC is often mentioned in this context. Taiwan is also a regional transshipment centre but I have little understanding if this is as significant to the US as TMSC is.

It would seem possible the US could make it prohibitively expensive for China to invade. Taiwan already has a fair stock pile anti shipping missiles. It seems it's anti air defense is less capable but is is not as if I have judgement on this.

As with Russia, China could expect significant trade sanctions to result which exacerbate it's current financial problems and maybe push China back to the paddy field. Their economy seems to be headed in that direction.

This is a relatively soft option or the US but not without it's pain.

Guess it depends on whether Americans are willing to cede supreme power to China and equally so for Europe.

It wouldn't seem Americans are willing to shoulder the cost.

[monorprise]

Thanks to Biden's ukrainian war policy China now has unlimited resources in the form of a Russian partner.
As such they also have the means to be independent and not care about the world as Russia is now.

We have already given China the industry, and China's own leaders are already consolidating their power at the expense of prosperity. The only reason They even care about Taiwan is because it is an ideological threat to their leaders.

They are clearly already willing to let their people suffer economically to deal with potential threats to their power. Its unclear how far they are willing to go but we have little reason to believe that doesn't include Taiwan which would be easy for them.

So easy I really don't think the U. S military can defeat China in Taiwan before they took the island.

The island is simply too close, too small, and to far from America for our military to bring enough to the fight to win before the Chinese do.

So really as your saying China is just worried about a global reaction but only to the extent they haven't sanction proofed their economy like the Russia has.

[RavVid]

@monorprise Comparatively, it is bigger than the Normandy landing in WW2. Without checking the strait is 100 miles wide. So lots of time for Taiwan to sink ships on the way over. Undoubtedly the Taiwan airforce would overwhelmed but the CCP would still need boots on the ground and that means infantry.

Not so convinced it is easy if Taiwan is determined but realistically every one will choose life over death so that is not a given. If the Taiwanese are willing to fold, nothing can be done to stop that.

I've no doubt that Xi would like to find himself in complete ownership of TSMC but it is not that simple to take over. The US has ensured that Dutch company ASML which has a virtual monopoly on extreme UV lithography is not selling equipment or even supporting deep UV lithography to China. There are long and deep supply lines that the US can use it's influence to disable as it has with ASML. Plus knowledge of TSMC personnel would need to be captured and hopefully there are emergency evacuation plans.

In short CCP taking Taiwan could be the most Pyrrhic victory of all time even if the US just fires diplomatic shots. Hopefully CCP sees that and limits itself to bluster.

[monorprise]

A war against Taiwan is only as costly as the Taiwanese goverment is willing to make it ahead of time. The Chinese have been given the world's factory and with Russian raw materials they will be able to make an almost unlimited number of ships, missiles, aircraft, and weapons.

They already have enough missiles to make it very difficult if not impossible to ship anything to or from Taiwan so realistically regardless of the policy of the Taiwanese goverment. Their island will only be able to fight until they run out of weapons on the island.

They won't get too much help from the rest of the world as the Ukraine is now until and unless the U. S. manages to break thou Chinese weapons and create a relatively safe shipping route.

[RavVid]

@monorprise What you say is true but there are counter aspects to consider and discuss. I do think it is good for ordinary people such as you and I to discuss.

China might currently have the world's factory but that makes them dependent on other countries buying their shit. Would the US & Europe continue along their merry way with China? There would be a lot of pain removing China from supply chains but it is plausible a Cold War II breaks out. It is probable China would lose that. Russia has been decoupled. What would European attitude be because they buy a lot of Chinese junk.

Military intervention is not necessarily the winning strategy but not buying their junk could be.

I am inclined to think US intervening militarily is too risky now. Taiwan has about enough missiles to take out about half a Chinese invasion fleet and they have indigenous missile capability.

Mostly it depends on how resolved Taiwan is with their porcupine defense strategy.

Your thoughts?

[monorprise]

@RavVid
You are certainly correct in the long run China needs to sell their stuff to the rest of the world. In the short run however they can do like Russia and do without.

It would be more difficult for the U. S. to convergence the world to boycott china over Taiwan a country china has seen to it that almost none of them officially reconize as they did with the Russia a country of far more minimal economic significance over a country all of them recognized.

So the plan as I understand it is more of a naval blockade which means a shooting war in the pacific. That brings in China's industrial strength, and how long the subject of that shooting war Taiwan can last. Even if they sink half the Chinese invasion fleet that still leaves the other half and whatever china can build which is more than enough.

I honestly don't see this conflict as winnable by these united States. Taiwan will fall too quickly, and the naval conflict will be catastrophic for both navies. Ultimately leading to a defeat for the U. S. navy with the fall of Taiwan, even if we win the Naval battles and blockade China.
We don't have the numbers to retake Taiwan with China out numbering us more than 5-1 and having very short supply-lines to defend.

A defeat that would embolden China to think they can go after their other enemy's in the pacific, Japan, South Korea, South East Asia. If theses countries don't fold China will be able to creditably claim the power to conquer them and thus force them to appease china as to deny them a reason to.

The good news is, the U. S. can probably defend Japan and Australia. but your countries will become modern day fortress. This war would be bad news for the west no matter what given we can't actually go after china directly.

We would be better off letting Taiwan fall and sticking to more defensible islands like the Philippines and Japan.

[RavVid]

@monorprise Autocrats have the advantage certainly. If reminders are necessary one just needs to look at Russia's meat grinder approach in Ukraine. At the same time appeasement doesn't work any more than 'Peace in Our Time' worked in WW2.

Europe is somewhat divided on China over cars. Germany is in bed with China whilst France is more gun-ho. We can see this with their split the difference tariff on Chinese EVs. So I agree a coalition boycotting China will be difficult to achieve but a 100% complete sanction is not necessary. Just enough to hurt and damage; though what that is, is above my pay grade.

Even so, with Germany, it eventually got out of bed with Russia and fell into line with the rest of Europe. Gradually sanctions on Russia have been increased. It could go along the same path with gradually increasing tariffs.

China is vulnerable in the Malacca Straits. through which it gets oil. It is an immediate pain point and China has only 80 days of reserve normally. Probably there will be reserve build up before China presses the green button.

China isn't naive on this. In war games with first strike, petroleum reserves in Northern Australia are hit. We very much need protected bunkers up there. Of course China will have a pipeline to Russian oil and gas in the longer term.

All up I think the US has been doing quite well in the soft warfare. Nobbling their semiconductor industry has been good. The 100% tariff on EVs has been a good warning shot across the bow. The US & Australian gov't are discussing rare earths.

More is needed. After WW2 both Germany and Japan became very good global citizens. The lesson from 2022 on is that Russia and China never will be when they gain power. Getting companies to pull out of China is good. In short we need to damage them economically in a permanent way.

I have more to suggest on your other points. but will give those later.

Cheers

[monorprise]

@RavVid Althou I am more optimistic about peace, I can't say I disagree with your predictions. I would merely add to it a reemphasize on the fact that winning a war against China requires winning it before the shooting starts not after.

People like to think wars can be won by simply inflicting enough pain on their enemy to make them give up, but that almost never is the case before fighting is impossible, particularly with totalitarian states like Russia and China.

It is democracies not sold on the signficance of the war or overly concerned with the power of their future word that are most likely to give up first. Like politicians dictators tend to be drawn to the office because they want to command others and therefore are willing to make their people sacrifice much to maintain such command.

So as you suggested how much we weaken china industrially and economically now is the key to deciding the outcome or even the start of such a war.

As we loosen our ties to China and find alternatives soo too do they do the same.

[RavVid]

@monorprise Never a truer word than "winning a war against China requires winning it before the shooting starts not after".

A blockade of oil to China is a pretty serious non-kinetic threat. In time pipelines will overcome that but not just yet. The trick is I guess to make China pull their head in with the implication it could be worse but at the same time make it far worse.

Still China appears to be going into stagflation (like Japan) so they may have taken care of it already. Watched YT China Update (recommend) last night on this broadly. Japan went from 17% world GDP down to 6% in a decade. We can hope.

A CCP sokesman was whining at the US restrictions on their tech sector. Why they think the US should give the computing resources for them to make more potent weapons I don't quite follow. There were claims of just wanting happy families and for the law to be enforced in South China Sea. Uh? CCP law? China has ratified UNCLOS and should uphold its arbitration on SCS but no they want the lot. I think we see their intent very clearly from their actions in SCS.

I tend to think China will mostly escalate with grey zone tactics. Our HMAS Toowomba was transiting the Japanese Sea to take up station on North Korea. Nets got entangled on the propeller and we had divers over to clear them. A PLA ship approached and turned on their sonar to deliberately injure the divers. Fortunately they recovered. Of course the Chinese just bullshit & claimed it was a Japanese ship.

In 2001 a PLA jet rammed a US plane midair if you remember. It is quite galling the media are sympathetic to Chinese bull. There is a reasonable possibility a shooting war starts from this Chinese aggression

Wake up, check we are alive then check if there is a Chinese war I guess.

Did you know during the depths of covid China chose to make an incursion into the Indian side of the line of control? Good choice there wasn't much about anything not covid related.

[KostasKouvalis]

I really don't want us to get involved in another foreign conflict unless it's a direct threat to the U. S. And also officially, the US recognizes Taiwan as a province of China and doesn't conduct diplomatic relations with China, because they're scared to death of China. So surely, violating an international agreement would create an international incident. Trump took some heat simply for having a brief phone call with the Taiwanese president, and literally all she did was congratulate him on his victory.

But I really don't want us involved in another conflict. I'd prefer Taiwan to remain soveirgn, but shit happens. I don't really care for the Taiwanese. They treated me as a lesser not as an equal, and even if they hate Mainland Chinese, they'll still back their Chinese brother before they back a White Western man, so why should we help them or feel sorry for them if they get invaded?

[katiesmuff]

As my father has said many times had that bumbling president Truman as WW2 ended listened to both great generals MacArthur and Patton the US's already fully capable army's should have continued on and destroyed China and Russia at that time as insurance of what we have now never happening.

[emeraldsaphire]

I'd feel awful for Taiwan if that were to happen. They are in such a vulnerable place, but I don't think the US should get involved. We can't get involved in every other countries problems especially when we can't even handle are own problems

[WindAtMyBack]

Not as it stands now. Almost no countries recognize Taiwan as an independent sovereign state.

Plus, the US is not capable of defending Taiwan. They'd get their ass kicked if they tried. If China invaded Taiwan, it would all be over before the US could even mobilize. By then it would be too late.

If the US wanted Taiwan to be independent, first they'd have to officially recognize Taiwan. Second, they'd have to get a significant number of other countries to do the same.

If all that happened, then the US would have to establish a strong military presence in Taiwan and surrounding waters. Because without that presence they wouldn't stand a chance of defending Taiwan. Even with an already existing strong presence I doubt they could do it.

[Pohjolan]

By wargaming USA has a pretty good chance at winning this depending on China's opening moves.
Submarines and long range anti-ship missiles would jeopardize Chinese logistics and troops that have established a beachhead might find themselves running out of ammunition and other supplies.
For obvious reasons I'm not going to say which scenario China won.

[Xoirwinkan]

China is mostly a paper tiger, weaker than people think. Every so often they rattle their sabres about Taiwan being "rightfully theirs" but they won't attack if they even suspect America, Australia, and Japan will come to Taiwan's aid. The only reason why Taiwan isn't recognised globally as a sovereign country is because everyone wants to be allowed into the Chinese market. Also, Russia and China aren't great allies, they actually dislike each other, they only work together when they are forced to economically. If China attacks Taiwan Russia is likely to stay out of it.

[ohsheeT]

Well if we do we better understand and be ready because it's going to be a ploy to bring us into something and then Russia and China probably already have a plan to pose One direction or another

And I don't think that they would do anything well Donald Trump's the president because they know he's just crazy enough to do anything

[blackgaletiger]

They will reason being is micro chips. They are a huge manufacturer of these chips that are developed for computers phones and other electronics. This is the only reason why the United States will try to protect them is not for social reasons but economical ones

[Avicenna]

Given that around 90% of the world's high-end semiconductor manufacturing occurs there, the US would have to. But what the CCP is most likely to do is blockade Taiwan rather than attempt an amphibious invasion.

What really makes sense is to permanently bring the Taiwanese working in the semiconductor industry to the US and re-create the industry there. That will take some time, though.

[Anonymous]

We would likely lose such a war once it started and only risk escalation.

Taiwan needs to be in a position to defend itself ideally with nukes that can take out bejing if it is to avoid such a conflict.

America is too weak and too far away to defeat china soo close to the Chinese mainland.

[Danny_dan92]

I don’t give a flying fuck.




It just proves that we need to stop outsourcing our jobs and manufacturing to other countries. And do it all domestically

[lightbulb27]

No and we are being re-positioned so we don't have to. that will take time. hopefully political choices helps us avoid putting our lives in it. no need to.

[Anonymous]

these scenarios are always kinda funny. China knows it can't fight the US. All we have to do is say, "leave Taiwan alone or we'll stop buying all your cheap junk", and China is once again our bitch. And when Trump gets into office, we'll finally have a president with the balls to say such a thing, while the rest of the world sucks China's tiny dick.

[Anonymous]

these scenarios are always kinda funny. China knows it can't fight the US. All we have to do is say, "leave Taiwan alone or we'll stop buying all your cheap junk", and China is once again our bitch. And when Trump gets into office, we'll finally have a president with the balls to say such a thing, while the rest of the world sucks China's tiny dick.

[Joshydavid25]

TBH, I don't think it should, since that's more between China and Taiwan.. It could assist and aid Taiwan, but getting involved would probably make the matter more messy..

[molonski2]

Taiwan will return to Chinese rule , like it or not..

It would be utterly pointless for USA to intervene.

[HighValue]

The USA should go to war with China, regardless if they attack Taiwan or not since China has been waging war on the USA for years.

[RingOfFire]

I don't think at this point the US has any option but to defend Taiwan because Taiwan produces some things that America needs for national security purposes... Namely semiconductors.

[Quigly]

It wouldn't just be the U. S., Both Australia and Japan are committed to Taiwans defense. China would lose far more than it would gain. Putin is learning the pain of his mistake in Ukraine. China with their fragile economy would lose big.

[abc3643]

Yes, and they will... unless Trump is President.

[Surely]

Let’s just hope we never need to find out! The US needs to get a lot more self sufficient and make their own computer chips. Long before any invasion happens!

[exitseven]

Yes, It is not the best situation to be in but China cannot be allowed to get away with that.

[KittygosMeoWW]

I think we should fix our economy because we can barely help ourselves

[Pohjolan]

You don't seem to understand how much computer parts USA currently imports from Taiwan.
And you already paid for the military that would be used.

[KittygosMeoWW]

@Pohjolan you don’t seem to understand how expensive things are, our time and finances should be invested back into correcting or at least improving our economy school systems.

[Pohjolan]

That's a argument for less defense spending, not for what your policies should be.
Tell me what were your opinions on the ward in Iraq and Afghanistan

[Likes2drive]

It was a lot of problems if we did get involved and certainly not ready for that with all the other problems going on around the world

[Likes2drive]

Would cause, not was

[KrakenAttackin]

We need to diligently develop domestic production of microchips, this would make Taiwan much less important to the west.

[msc545]

No - not any more than Taiwan would defend the US if it was invaded. Taiwan is NOT our problem or our country.

[Jennz6]

Maybe everyone in Taiwan 🇹🇼 should move to the United States, everyone else is moving here.

[Massageman]

They had better or kiss the southern pacific bye-bye.

[blackeagle007]

We made the mistake of going to Vietnam and Iraq, I can’t see this nation intervening in Taiwan.

[Crazzyyworld]

Xijinping could really use war to protect his presidency by raising a war just like Putin did it to Ukraine

[Anonymous]

The US shouldn't fight any wars other than to defend our borders.

[Anonymous]

Yes absolutely. We can't abandon allies like we did in Vietnam and Afghanistan

[Enginn]

No. America is not the police of earth. They will either lose more troops or make enemies with China.

[Bklynbadboy12]

God I hope not im tired of us defending everybody and nobody appreciates it

[Anonymous]

I think a better plan would be to just give Taiwan nukes and then stay out of it.

[Anonymous]

China has the biggest military force out of anybody.

[Kelley1]

China is going to take Taiwan. It is just of time.

[MarjorieJ]

Not to mention, China would destroy us.

[Kingofkings1992]

@MarjorieJ china would destroy the US? That’s laughable

[MarjorieJ]

@Kingofkings1992

So the military experts are wrong, and you are right?

[Kelley1]

@MarjorieJ @Kingofkings1992 The US cannot win a conventional war against China. To win, we would have to go nuclear but China would retaliate will up to 300 nukes, using ICBMs, nuclear subs, and advanced bombers from which there is little defense. Therefore 80 or 90 percent would hit their targets including NYC and Washington, DC destroying the federal government.

When Congress and high-level government officials came out of their bomb shelters two or three months later, others would already be in charge and would not take kindly to the government criminals who got more than half their family members killed.

The thought of losing control and power is terrifying to Congress, the President, and other high-level officials, so they will do nothing to defend Taiwan from China.

[MarjorieJ]

The military runs war game simulations, and China always wins. If they take out our power grid, we're toast.

[Kelley1]

@MarjorieJ Take whatever our incompetent military and lying government state with a grain of salt. Incompetent military war game simulations are no more reliable than a flip of a coin.

[MarjorieJ]

OK, but you agreed about the outcome.

[Kelley1]

@MarjorieJ Of course I did. The US cannot win. Not really win unless you call the last man standing winning.

[Daniela1982]

What turkey pot pie removed my comment?

[Kelly6]

@julie4 no they shouldn’t

[Dargil]

I think we will.

[RyanEC]

In the end I don’t think Taiwan is that important.

[Julie4]

You are mistaken

[RyanEC]

I would rather Taiwan not get taken over but I think avoiding a WW3 scenario is paramount.

[Julie4]

The problem is that the American interests are too important, if China seizes Taiwan, it will break the first chain of island, it will dominate the continent which will become the richest of the world with the most powerful countries militarily, and thus will be able to project its power in the world.

The USA's freedom of action will be severely curtailed, and if China dominates, it will be able to deny the USA access to Asian markets, or impose its own rules anyway.

American life would be terribly affected. So is it acceptable to let China dominate Taiwan? I don't think so.

Of course you're right, we must avoid a 3rd world war. But you know the Roman proverb: "If you want peace, prepare for war". I think the USA can dissuade China, if it devotes sufficient resources to the Indo-Pacific.

[RyanEC]

Yes but I don’t see them gaining any ground anywhere else after Taiwan.
South Korea, Southeast Asia and Japan could defend themselves against China.

[Julie4]

The problem is that China has a greater industrial capacity than all these countries combined, and it also has the greatest purchasing power in the world.

Read the book by the excellent Elbridge Colby

[RyanEC]

I think China will be desperate because of their population decline and may cause problems soon.
But in the long run they will decline.

[CarolinaGirl5]

No it's not our fight

[Iron_Man]

Do you want war? Then no

[DrPepper12]

Yes. Next question.

[Staximus]

Definitely not

[Hispanic-Cool-Guy]

Nope. It's not our problem.

[WhiteBoyChill]

Just nuke China. Seriously fck them.

[MarjorieJ]

No..

[Dongie]

Hell no!!

[SmokinAces2000]

No….

[zombiewoof]

Yess

[Erron_Black]

why defend?