I mean, the US is trying to restrict China's access to the most advanced chips, etc., despite negotiations. It's logical that China would decide to retaliate. Did Trump think that China wouldn't react the way the EU did?
Why does Trump seem surprised by China's restrictions on rare earths?
I'm sure he knew. He couldn't know exactly what their response would be, but I'm sure he knew they could fight back.
But China started the fight and Trump should stand his ground. This goes back to the late 90s when China was given favored nation status. That should never have been done. I was very against it then, and nothing since then has changed my mind. It's been one-sided from the start and that needs to change.
He's probably also surprised Korea and Japan are pulling out of US investment after the Hyundai/LG debacle in Georgia. Considering we are 8 months into this trade war and the Commerce Secretary cannot produce any documentation for a single trade deal, means that none have been completed yet. He obviously didn't expect that so it's safe to say he really doesn't understand foreign relations.
Not really, at worst it's equivalent. Because the US needs rare earths even in its weapons, submarines, aircraft, etc., and it would take at least 10 years before the US could rebuild serious capabilities in rare earths.
And the Chinese have greatly diversified their exports and reduced their dependence on American chips. The 100% tariffs are no longer so impressive.
okay, I just looked it up. In 2024 the US was the 4th largest trading partner with China. Over 500 billion dollars. It is a lot less now. We do not have 2025 figures yet but they will be much lower. China needs the US more than the US needs China;
Not really. The Chinese have reduced their dependence on the US market. Economies are interdependent. And while the US can hurt the Chinese economy, China can do the same. This is because China controls many essential supply chains. In particular, rare earths, which are essential for high-tech companies, are now the main driver of US growth. Not to mention the importance of rare earths for the F-35 and submarines.
Even the CEO of NVIDIA (the company with the highest market capitalization in the world) says he cannot do without the Chinese market.
The Americans have the advantage of their software. Would blocking this software from China be a winning strategy in the long term? That's not certain.
In reality, the two countries will negotiate. And whatever Trump proclaims, he will be forced to make concessions, just like the Chinese.
Other countries are not replacing the revenue that China got from the US. Maybe they can mitigate the effect by manipulating their currency but sooner of later they will fall on hard times. Thr uS can get rare earths from other countries and there are plans on mining for rare earth in Alaska.
You can't seriously obtain these rare earths before 10 years because you have to be able to refine them, and China has global control over this. It's impossible to replace this overnight. The US economy would be suffocated. Because what drives the US economy is its technology sector. What's more, China controls other processes.
Of course China will suffer consequences, but Americans will suffer just as much.
These are the consequences of outsourcing and despising the Chinese for 30 years.
And the US market doesn't even represent 20% of China's export.
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