How do you see the Israel/US vs Iran war ending? NOT what you'd hope to see, but how do you think it will end?

[Siajanua2027]

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Likely, lots of low scale combat and pauses until after November. Periods of bombings and retaliation, followed by "talks" that go nowhere.
This will keep the market healthy. We've consistently been around $84+ oil.
After midterms, Trump will be more aggressive.
Likely due to that and the Iranian regimes suicidal tendencies, we will see Trump accept regime change as the only option.
It will be a slow burn, but probably by 2027 we will see the regime ousted.

Trump has handled this poorly, no disagreement there.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@Siajanua2027 I believe this is the most likely route because its been the structure of the war.
1. 40 inital days of hard bombing by the US and Israel
2. Iran agreeing to talks, with intermittent combat. The MOU, which was clearly a sham and not taken seriously by either side. That periods lasted a couple months
3. 13 more days of bombing with Israel sidelined. Followed by more "talks"

All the while we see Hezbollah being degraded, a Lebanese/Israel deal, random Iran strikes on Arab nations and oil tankers, Saudis bombing Houthi targets etc.

It's limited war, talks, limited war, talks.

Once Trump is free of midterms, he's free to respond more aggressively. Israel could technically manage alone, but subservient to the US. Likely, Trump is forcing Israel to stand down to keep it low scale.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@Siajanua2027
@Lliam is an antisemitic islamist. One of a few extreme propagandists here.

[Curmudgeon]

@FrodoSkywalker007 it should be noted thst Trump is NOT another George Bush. The Donald is clearly very reluctant to commit to a direct invasion, or even commando raids. I suspect the easier option of (1) airstrikes, (2) aiding rebel factions in Iran, and (3) hoping for the best, is the likely outcome for Donald Trump.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@Curmudgeon I do agree with that.

[Curmudgeon]

@FrodoSkywalker007 @Siajanua2027 I have to follow my 11th Commandment, "Thou shall not speak ill of a fellow Right Patriot, especially here in Commiecrat infested California" and be charitable.

And to be charitable, there is an isolationist streak among many on the Right. This was masked for decades by the Cold War and a blatant Soviet threat, but with the end of that Empire, it has re-emerged. See my answer to another G. A. G question here:

What happens to the Republican Party if Donald Trump loses the election? ↗

Some on the Right do feel that the USA has been dragged into doing things it should not have done, at Israel's goading. They do think that The Iraq War was a mistake and that the USA was dragged into doing that war at Israel's request, and they arguably have a point. At the very least, there is a sentiment that we shouldn't do Israel's fighting for it, especially since they get so much military aid, and many, citing US budgets out of control, want to cut off that military aid too.

However, looking at my aforementioned prior post above, just as Robert Taft and his faction had to put aside their isolationist sentiments in the face of a blatant Soviet threat in 1948, so too must, for example, Marjorie Taylor Greene and her ilk put aside their isolationist sentiments in the face of a blatant mullah threat to crude oil shipping, today.

[Alexson_stormzy]

Regretful penury

[lilBigPotato]

Some half assed deal that isn't good for anyone, just to move on from this mess.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

So everyone loses 😂
Did you have coffee this morning?

[lilBigPotato]

@FrodoSkywalker007 I don't drink coffee 🤷‍♀️

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Im addicted lol

[strateguy632]

it can't end. you know the book muslim believe. we can blockade. i don't understand why a blockade is not the complete solution. nothing else is needed.

bombing them to lose value and troops is fruitless. except bombing the stuff blocking shipping. which u. k. should do not us. if u. k. doesn't. then be passive. says me.

[DryGermanGuy]

The real irony would be a repetition of the 1980 Carter administration transition to Reagan administration scenario, where the eventual election winner Reagan already had a backchannel with Teheran and further sabotaged a political win for Carter.

[Curmudgeon]

@DryGermanGuy Sorry, but the haunting question "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" is what led to Jimmy Carter's landslide loss. Four years of stagflation and economic decay was worse for the Carter Administration than in foreign policy debacles, although the Carter Administration impotence in foreign policy, from Afghanistan to Nicaragua, let alone Iran, was also palpable to all.

[DryGermanGuy]

Yeah, I get that. Still, my answer was just in the limited context of handling a hostile Iran and how history could actually repeat itself here.

[DryGermanGuy]

Sol non lucet omnibus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=terF1TwLhmM

[DryGermanGuy]

edition.cnn.com/.../trump-iran-economy-strait-of-hormuz-analysis

[BonzoInBitburg]

Bombing Iran back to the stone age hasn't worked at all and the US has to be careful they aren't too depleted to defend Taiwan. Now that more countries are lining up to buy Iran's oil, and defending Taiwan is a higher priority, walking away seems very likely.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

No one is buying their oil

[FrodoSkywalker007]

www.aljazeera.com/.../how-the-us-naval-blockade-has-bled-iran-of-nearly-6bn-in-oil-revenues

www.asianews.it/.../us-sanctions-cut-iranian-oil-exports-by-35-per-cent

www.reuters.com/.../

www.reuters.com/.../

www.aljazeera.com/.../why-are-oil-companies-posting-record-profits-amid-iran-war-disruption

[BonzoInBitburg]

@FrodoSkywalker007 No one is buying Iranian oil. Right. Wink wink

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Hard to do when your ports are blockaded.
As you can see they've had a massive cut in exports.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

If you check the links above you will see that Iranian exports are 80% oil, of which the blockade cut down to roughly 15% of its normal rates.
I also provided a link from 2018 that showed. due to sanctions alone, Iranian oil exports were cut at that time by 35%, which I found interesting.
Also, a link that showed increases in US oil exports during the blockade (which has started up again recently).
Also, companies like ExxonMobil getting rich off the war.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

I also made sure to give sources that were international, so I didn't hear any of the US bias nonsense. Though that means little, since most media is liberal and anti Trump 😂

[BonzoInBitburg]

Did you ever wonder why oil prices didn't go up higher than they did with the Strait of Hormuz closed? How is supply keeping up with global demand when oil isn't moving like it used to? I realize that there is some backwardation in oil futures and the spot price gap but maybe commodity traders know something.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Well, it's a mix of things.
1. US exports because of many ships rerouting
2. CENTCOM has gotten many ships through, including 11 just the other day
3. Pauses in combat (which have made up 2/3s of the war allowed ships through.

You can actually follow this on tracker data.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

These are some sources for the above statements
Including record US exports due to rerouted tankers.
www.eurasiareview.com/.../
iranwire.com/.../
www.aa.com.tr/.../4012877

[FrodoSkywalker007]

gcaptain.com/.../

Current status.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Upon a bit further research
It appears incorrect.
However, add reduced consumption in Asian markets and inventories should be added to that list

www.imf.org/.../the-oil-market-absorbed-the-war-shock-but-buffers-are-running-low

[FrodoSkywalker007]

*it appears I'm correct

[BonzoInBitburg]

So you're right, the insiders and the markets are wrong. Gotcha

[FrodoSkywalker007]

I literally showed you a link that my arguments were correct. 😂
What are you talking about?

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Let's run down the list
You claimed countries are lined up to buy Iran's oil. I proved it was cut down to 15% of normal levels by the blockade, and that the current resumption has had the same impact.
www.aljazeera.com/.../how-the-us-naval-blockade-has-bled-iran-of-nearly-6bn-in-oil-revenues
www.reuters.com/.../
I showed that CENTCOM released 1000 vessels www.aa.com.tr/.../4012877
iranwire.com/.../
I showed that many tanker rerouted to the US giving it record high exports
www.eurasiareview.com/.../
I showed the current blockade has had the same impact
gcaptain.com/.../
I showed that also Asian consumption and inventories played a role along with above statements
www.imf.org/.../the-oil-market-absorbed-the-war-shock-but-buffers-are-running-low

[BonzoInBitburg]

If your links had actual facts, oil would be $150 a barrel. Those are just news stories by a person behind a computer who is fed stories to fill a quota and space on a free website. The first causality of war is the truth and there aren't any real reporters on free news websites. Money never lies. Always follow the money.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

😂 you are as bad 888thegreat
It's sad to see.

[BonzoInBitburg]

Sad because I have an opposing view or because I'm a capitalist and think everything is about money?

[FrodoSkywalker007]

It's sad because you remind me a bit if him.
Sadly, the western world is losing itself to outsiders

Take this story

'Raises a lot of questions': Qatar has spent nearly $100B in the U. S. to gain influence: Report / MS NOW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyGW1KiB4eE

Interesting reality very few know (myself included until recently) yet we see this interesting rise of anti Semitism and anti Israel (on both sides)
We see college campuses push "Queers for Palestine"
We see Harvard professor pushing MAPs (minor attracted persons)
We seen figures like Hasan Piker dominating the political left.

It's a very interesting and scary time.
I wouldn't be surprised of a civil war around the corner.

You will also notice I relied on largely only international sources. Msm is trusted less than congress in the states 😂

[FrodoSkywalker007]

In regards to the conflict (which I follow obsessively), i follow independent reports. US media is for to divided. Truth is unlikely. US media either views Trump as Jesus or Hitler 😂

I mostly follow Tousi tv an British Iranian

LIVE: Saudi Arabia Launch Attack On IRGC Houthis - China Help Iran War Against Trump / Tousi TV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbXo-SgBRbg

Or The Enforcer who. has been very critical of Trump (as i have, for he is the weakest link outside of Vance)

IRAN LAUNCHES SHOCK ATTACK ON US BASES, SAUDIS JOIN WAR ON IRAN! Breaking War News The Enforcer / The Enforcer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UTAam-YthE

MAJOR RUSSIAN AMBUSH NEAR CRIMEA, IRAN PREPARES HUGE ATTACKS ON US! Breaking War News The Enforcer / The Enforcer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRebhim9qXQ

I also occasionally follow Pesach Wolicki,. who is also very critical of Trumps handling
He generally covers Iranian state media.
Also, Max Afterburner, who tracks mostly the military specifics

[FrodoSkywalker007]

So, if you have an assumption I follow Fox News. Sorry. I'm mostly interested in first hand accounts (which is hard in Iran).
Most of those above reports all sides, and other regional powers. They include on the ground footage from civilians.
Far more interesting than some hit piece from CNN, or glory to King Trump from Fox News 😂

[FrodoSkywalker007]

So yes, I agree. Truth is lost. US media is notorious for that. The far majority of US media is extremely critical of Trump. It generally labels him. as a fascist leader.
CNN for example has been caught in dozens of scandals this last decade. I'd argue they've gotten people killed, and manufactured crisis.
It's the sad reality of media.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

I also speak with my friend from Tehran, when possible. He adored Trump, but was losing faith in him last time we spoke. Many question his handling. I do as well, I spoke with lilbigpotato here about my opinions of the talks and the MOU in particular. For me, it was horrific optics, and nothing that could. be passed.
I am not a Trump supporter and believe his handling has at best been chaotic and poor. He micromanage too much and puts too much faith in pointless talks likely to fail. Most of this likely connected to midterms.

So no, you are not speaking to a MAGA guy, nor someone that believes Trump has managed this well.

My concern is truth.

[Jersey2]

Iran will capitulate or it will be embargoed and their electricity and water will be “turned off” by bombers. They will then be left to sit in their misery.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@Jersey2 seems the likely outcome if Trump ever stops giving them chances 😂

[Jersey2]

@FrodoSkywalker007 I think he wants an agreement but they lie. Fortunately he knows that but still tries.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

I think it's a mistake.
The MOU is a perfect example. Horrible optics for the US, propaganda for leftists. Iran still broke it.
He needs to accept regime change is the only direction.

[Jersey2]

@FrodoSkywalker007 Regime Change won’t happen as we won’t/shouldn’t put boots on the ground and the population likely won’t revolt or if they do, win. That leaves us at destroying infrastructure and let them suffer which will bring more terrorists. You see what Hamas let happen to Gaza. Iran will do the same but we shouldn’t send troops in.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

I agree
Though the Iranians themselves support regime change gamaan.org/.../

I just don't see another way to insure the goals set out. In order to prevent a nuclear weapon, the regime will need to be removed.

[Lliam]

I think the U. S. and Israel will have no other choice than to agree to Iran's terms.

[Anonymous]

The regim will fall and Irael with USA will be apreciated for it.

[Spencer10]

Well I fear it could be awhile. There are no real adults in the room on all sides.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

True enough

[msc545]

I think it's going to end when Trump is no longer president for whatever reason.

[LiamS95]

Today US/isreal will triumph

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Today? 🤔

[exitseven]

It will not be pretty.