Do you often listen to your intuition? How accurate is your intuition?

[Elena_Stewart]

[GuyAnswersGirls123]

I trained myself to thoroughly distrust it after I got into Poker and realized my intuitions were often incorrect. "He check-raise jammed me on the river after floating turn and c-betting flop. He must have rivered the flush! Damn. [Hero fold]." Then he shows me air and I realize I made a bad fold with my TPTK.

So I had to develop a much more rigorous style of analyzing Poker from a statistical perspective, so completely divorced from my intuitions. When I did that, I went from a break-even player to a profitable one (although just at low stakes, I'm no pro).

I've taken a lot of what I learned from Poker into my entire life, although also my scientific background which taught me to think in terms of probabilities rather than certainties. Both taught me to challenge my intuitions.

The only time I listen to my intuition is in moments where I have no time to think and have to make a snap decision. I don't expect it to be so accurate in those cases but I just have nothing else to work with to drive my snap decisions.

[GuyAnswersGirls123]

A huge problem I see now with intuition is that it doesn't deal with multiple possibilities or probabilities. It once to see a coin toss as either landing on heads or tails. "It's going to land on heads, I know it!"

With proper analysis, assuming the coin is fair, we arrive at two possibilities: heads or tails, not one, and a 50% chance of either occurring. Gut instincts don't allow for this type of analysis, and that's why I think they're often wrong even if they happen to be right/lucky.

[GuyAnswersGirls123]

[*] It [wants, sorry] to see a coin toss as either landing on heads or tails.

[Elena_Stewart]

Gotcha🙂

[GuyAnswersGirls123]

Cheers! Personally I'm rather against intuitive thinking nowadays. I think it's at the heart of a lot of discrimination, like sexism. Take a man who has had some negative experiences with some women. If he's a very intuitive thinker, he might intuitively think all women are bad and work towards becoming a misogynist. An analytical thinker can't do that since they'd carefully analyze and quickly come to the realization that such intuitions are wrong.

[Elena_Stewart]

But, it will be required sometimes

[GuyAnswersGirls123]

Definitely so absent the time/resources for more rigorous analysis. I'm not against using our intuitions or even starting off with broad generalizations. Sometimes that's the best we can do. Yet if we have the time and resources, I think it's always superior to analyze in a more rigorous fashion.

Like a doctor might find it useful in an emergency to just judge their patient based on their race to help form a rapid diagnosis, since certain racial phenotypes are more likely to develop certain conditions than others. But if he has more time, he might be able to judge based on ethnicity which might give a higher probability of a more accurate diagnosis. Then if he has time beyond that and data available, even the patient's lifestyle, and so forth, until the doctor is just evaluating them purely on an individual level for the maximum chance of an accurate diagnosis.

[lil_will_12]

stupid and random (nothing to do with this conversation), but did you know that they tested it, and the side that is facing up before you flip it actually has a 51% chance😂 its basically nothing, but i thought it was interesting.

[GuyAnswersGirls123]

@lil_will_12 Yep! I heard it estimated around 50.8% chance although close enough. It makes sense to gamble on the side facing up before the flip to realize the tiniest edge. I think that's a nice example of how our probability estimates start to vary as we gather more data. Initially we start with the assumption of 50/50 and as we learn new things like this, it becomes 51/49 on the side initially facing up for a fair coin. Also if the coin design is not fair, then that also changes the probabilities compounded by the bias of the side facing up.

In Poker, one of the most useful pieces of data is VP$IP (convoluted acronym for "voluntary put money in pot"). Like if a Poker player only plays 15% of their hands in a full 9-handed ring after we get a good amount of history with them, that's pretty tight and suggests they only play premium hands and almost never weak hands for variety. That's actually very predictable so it's a weakness we can exploit by avoiding action with them unless we have an uber premium starting hand or connect very hard with a flop.

When I started out as a Poker player bleeding money and losing a lot, a problem is that I was trying to place my opponents on exact hands. The gut instinct tends to want to do that and arrive at only one possible answer when there might be like 500 possible answers that only begin to narrow down as we gain more data, similar to narrowing down suspects for a crime. So to become more and more accurate in our predictions, we usually want to avoid the gut instinct which ones to think only one answer is possible and rely on analysis which can come up with a variety and start assigning and adjusting probabilities for each possibility.

[GuyAnswersGirls123]

[*] [...] we usually want to avoid the gut instinct which [wants, sorry] to think only one answer is possible [...]

[GuyAnswersGirls123]

Another reason I am allergic though to gut instinct when avoidable is that we can't articulate it and teach it to others. There are some really great old school Poker players like Johnny Chan who will correctly fold aces on the flop despite the opponent trying to trap him with the rationale, "It smelled funny." That's a great Poker player but a horrible teacher. Analytical players can arrive at the same correct fold but actually explain why they folded and teach other people how to do it.

So even if we have amazing gut instincts, it comes with the con that we'll never be able to explain how it works to ourselves or anyone else. It's being completely out of touch with our emotions. If we're in touch with our emotions, we can explain it.

[NathanDavis]

always listen to my instincts, yes...

listen to it, consider it too... but never decide solely on it, I am more thorough..

[Kykiono1]

Hi, i need your help,
What happens if you report a disavowed question? can it still be traced back to the original asker?

[NathanDavis]

@Kykiono1 by the admins, yes

which reason would they have to do so, though?

[Kykiono1]

Just curious to see how things work.
Can you still freeze the person who asked the disavowed question from that question?

[NathanDavis]

if you're having an issue on the site, it is best to reach to the Admins and explain your situation to them

https://www.girlsaskguys.com/contact

[IslaTheWitch]

it's definitely something I should always listen to... but from time to time... my emotions take control... the best receipt for a disaster :D

[Elena_Stewart]

We can’t get rid of emotions completely, it is hard🙂

[IslaTheWitch]

but we shouldn't let them control us... and here I fail... :D

[Elena_Stewart]

I know what you are talking about, I am a very emotional person, I hope I can handle it growing up😊

[Sabretooth]

fuck if I don't know...

[whereismyjohnny]

To be honest, I don't often listen to my intuition, but I really should because it seems spot on.

[HawkPerception]

I'm an INTP and I usually score extremely high on intuition. Whereas most people say it's wrong to judge a person by their looks, I feel like I'm pretty good at it and more so than often... accurate.

When I used to go to the bar when I was younger, I'd occasionally ask strangers if they were cool with me guessing their personality and writing a couple paragraphs about them and seeing if it was accurate. Every time I've done it, everyone has been mind blown. There was a girl that thought I was following her around because of my guess for her. One of the guys called me a psycho and he was hysteric because of what I gave him.

I can do it online too. In another app called Boo, I guessed other people's personalities based off of their appearance and stuff that had no relation with their profile description, and most of them (like 90%) said I was bang on.

[Elena_Stewart]

Wow, that’s amazing 🙂

[Anonymous]

I have very strong intuition but I also got severe ADHD which makes me either fixate on things or act oblivious times.

I often have to tell myself to calm the f down. But sometimes I ignore my gut and just tell myself I am just being paranoid. But my gut was often right and I later regretted it.

When I was younger I had trouble making judgment calls with women and dating. I would either wig out something stupid or force myself to act like I didn’t care and chalk it up as “shit testing”. But in reality the some women just had no respect for me but my ego didn’t want to accept that reality. But nowadays I calmly call them out on it and walk away and never look back.

Best thing is to listen to your gut and if you do take action do it calmly. Don’t panic but take action when you feel something is wrong.

[Bricealan]

Sometimes I often wonder if I listen to something 'intuitive' or just listening to good/bad experiences, and make decisions based on that... I'm not sure if intuition is a valid term for me. Not sure if that is what you wanted to hear?

[EmmaMary]

@elena_stewart

Like @Nikki1989 has already mentioned, it's been right 99% of the time.

[Shiningtempest]

@elena_stewart I don't listen to intuition or gut-instinct because I know it's a recipe for disaster.

[Elena_Stewart]

Why though?

[Shiningtempest]

@elena_stewart I know listening to intuition or gut-instinct is a recipe for disaster because it indicates lack of preparation.

[Elena_Stewart]

Not necessarily, sometimes intuition may be required but should not be used alone

[Shiningtempest]

@elena_stewart I'm not stupid enough to use intuition & gut-instinct. I train myself to only use inductive & or deductive after gathering relevant information.

[Elena_Stewart]

If this way works for you, then that’s it, use it forever.

[Paris13]

Usually Pretty Good and Especially if my Intuition has a Full Circle Pattern Going Onxxoo

[sawno]

All the time and its usually highly accurate

[DJB72]

Always. In the last 40 years my gut instincts have been wrong twice

[TheSpaceGnome]

Mine are usually correct, but sometimes I get overly optimistic and stupidly ignore my intuition and end up regretting it in most cases.

[Account]

Always. It has saved my life twice so far.

[Elena_Stewart]

Awesome🙂

[Berweic]

My intuition has never been wrong before. I trust my feelings and they are right most of the time.

[Massageman]

I am usually better off going with my gut reaction, yes.

[OddBeMe]

Always. But as a piece of evidence. Intuition is a humans defense mechanism. Like porcupine needles.

[Nikki1989]

It is right 99% of the time.

[Anonymous]

I am a psychic. I see the future all the time. I trust my intuition.

[Squatting_Slav]

Always, it's rarely wrong

[jahaims]

I use my intuition to find facts

[Kelly6]

@elena_stewart always

[12karen]

I do, maybe 85% accurate

[msc545]

I always do, particularly when I work.

[laly520]

pretty much accurate

[guyinterested]

My intuition is pretty good. I listen to it.