Thoughts on Pascal's wager?

[sensible27]

[CountessSarah]

Of all the arguments theists present, Pascals Wager is the most flawed and easiest to explain why it doesn't work.

There are 4 main counterpoints I like to raise against it;

A) You could justify any position with this argument.
Why not carry a wooden stake around with you at all times - if vampires exist you can defend yourself, if not, no big deal, right? It fits in the 4 boxes exactly the same. Yet theists would suddenly no longer find their own argument compelling. All we did was substitute one fantasy for another.

B) There's no cost to believing.
In the graph, we have 'Nothing happens' in the two right side boxes. But it's not as easy as that. If I were to accept a god claim, there are undoubtably things about my life that would supposedly change.
Theists often like to pretend like their holy books aren't filled with freedom restricting rules. Which simply isn't true. Belief in a god most certainly comes with drawbacks.

C) It phrases the gamble as a 50/50 coin toss.
It's more like a heaven lottery. Because it's not just a case of accepting a god and getting into that heaven - I need to hope I've picked not only the correct religion and god, but also the correct denomination and am following the gods rules for its afterlife correctly. It's more like a heaven lottery than a coin toss.

D) Based on the respective gods rules, would accepting its existence based only on Pascals Wager get me to heaven?
Would your god be satisfied with this sort of believe? This argument does nothing to actually convince the atheist that the god is real, they'd only be believing out of some sort of safe-bet rather than being genuinely convinced. Which, based on the character of most gods I'm aware of, would be sufficient to appease that god.

And a bonus argument;

E) If I have dismantled Pascals Wager to your satisfaction, reader, then are you now no longer convinced that your god exists?
No?
Then why did you present this argument? If you personally are not convinced by this argument, why would anyone else be?

[DaisyM23]

Nah. I think it’s more complicated than belief, it’s more to do with good and bad but I don’t even believe in heaven/hell myself so...

[Exterminatore]

I think it’s silly especially because scripture warns over and over again that mere belief in God does not mean one is going to heaven.



“You believe that God is one; you do well. Even the demons believe—and shudder!”
‭‭James‬ ‭2:19‬ ‭ESV‬‬
Even the demons and Satan believe in God and know who he is. Certainly their final destination isn’t heaven.



““Not everyone who says to me, ‘Lord, Lord,’ will enter the kingdom of heaven, but the one who does the will of my Father who is in heaven. On that day many will say to me, ‘Lord, Lord, did we not prophesy in your name, and cast out demons in your name, and do many mighty works in your name?’ And then will I declare to them, ‘I never knew you; depart from me, you workers of lawlessness.’”
‭‭Matthew‬ ‭7:21-23‬ ‭ESV‬‬
What about these people? They believed in God. They even addressed Jesus as Lord. They did works in the name of Jesus.


This is the way to heaven:



“Jesus answered him, “Truly, truly, I say to you, unless one is born again he cannot see the kingdom of God.””
‭‭John‬ ‭3:3‬ ‭ESV‬‬
Belief would be part of being on the road to heaven. That is believing Jesus is who he said he was but a mere intellectual assertion of those facts or a belief in God is not enough. One must be born again, and that happens by the power of the Holy Spirit, not human effort.

[Sensmind]

I do not know your background or your reasoning for asking this questions but the options seem a bit extreme. I have no problem with anyone who is religious in fact I think fair play to them. What I am trying to say is I don't believe in God but I don't actively disbelieve in God that is to say I live my life without thinking of the existence of God or Gods (whatever religion you are). Live and let live.
To your actual question , my own personal view is that I subscribe to the "Nothing Happens" theory but if some people get comfort out of the existence or non existence of God or Gods , who am I to question that?

[sensible27]

Hey, nice to see you again. Back

[Sensmind]

I didn't realise I was away so long haha

[Sargentcaptain]

It's false in it's premise that you have nothing to lose if god exists and you worship him. You'd still lose time to prayer, going to church and you'd have to make a shitload of adjustments in your basic life just to avoid hell (such as not wearing clothing made from 2 different materials). Besides, there's so many different belief systems, so even if you believe in one there's no telling that it's the right one. Perhaps Christians will go to hell because they didn't believe in Buddhism or Islam.

[TheSpaceGnome]

What if god existed but hates people who assume so he would only want you to believe he exists if you had proof? What if you were tortured for all eternity for being an assuming ass who thinks you know more than you do? What? this mortal thinks he is all knowing? how dare he! sentenced to hell!

What if a god existed, but it's not the one you chose to believe in? and you just made it madder, and madder, and madder by believing in another god or set of gods or assuming they all existed?

Thankfully some of us can figure out that souls don't exist because degenerative brain diseases wouldn't be possible if they did, so we don't have this mental anguish to roll around in our heads :) (to be clear, I'm not thankful for the existence of diseases, just knowledge)

[Anonymous]

It's flawed in 2 key ways.

1, if you live your life as though there is a god, depending on the god you believe in, you may forsake a life of pleasure in the only form of existence you will ever know. You may make other peoples lives miserable. You may embrace horrific values in the name of your religion. (Bigotry, genocide, etc..)
So it's not "Nothing happens" in the top right corner.

2, you can argue that it would be better for your post-death possible future IF you believed... but that doesn't mean you do. And if there's a god, he's more than capable of figuring out if your belief was genuine or not.

[OfDeath]

I think his theory is really weird. Just believing in god isn't a definite ticket to eternal happiness (heaven). What if you believe in the wrong one and god hates that? Or what if god doesn't want you to believe in it and show you can be a good person of your own volition?
There's no guarantee that even if god exists that non believers in it will be punished. There's also the possibility that God exists but there is no such thing as heaven or hell or some sort of reward or punishment after one's earthly demise.
It's a very bizarre argument.

[call_me_scar]

Kinda flawed on section A2 depending on your beliefs like if you were a real bible thumper and didn't engage in the fun fruits of life like drinking till you drop, enjoying your Sunday mornings not in a church, banging a random person at a party. etc etc then sure nothing technology happened different after you die but you did loose what fun in life you could have had. Oh and let's not even get into the flawed concept of hell in section B1

[clampfan101]

This basically says you have a chance if you believe, and if you don’t believe you’re screwed either way.
It’s very incomplete and/or oversimplified, not referring to enough common beliefs. For example, some people who don’t believe in God still believe in eternal damnation.

[Gwenhwyfar]

The problem with this wager is you need to more than believe in God to get eternal happiness. You also need to affirm that belief by practicing a very firm moral code which I personally believe is ridiculous.

[Jersey2]

Well, much of the moral code is Legal Code in most countries of the world.

[Exterminatore]

Jesus can’t be ones savior only. He must also be their Lord, which means one must live a life of general obedience to their Lord. This would be the moral code you’re referring to. Also, living by that moral code as you put it is the evidence of salvation not the way to it.

[Gwenhwyfar]

@Exterminatore right! I don’t like the general obedience part. But I do get what your last sentence means.

[Exterminatore]

@Gwenhwyfar

I must say I’m both impressed and astounded that you understand this. I cannot understand many Christians. They believe because they merely said a prayer (the sinners prayer) that their going to heaven in the complete absence of any life changes. They’re answer to habitual sin: “God will forgive.”

No he won’t. Scripture warns over and over again about that. One must live rightly before God which is the evidence of salvation. It is the result of a changed heart convicted of sin and desiring to change and live obediently to God. Many Christians do not do this. I’m not speaking of merely sinning but continually sinning with no attempt to change nor desire to. In my mind they can’t really be Christians but must be self deceived as one obeys their Lord generally, both in and out of season.

Anyway, I find it astounding you understand this but so many who claim Christ don’t!

On a side note, is your screen name Gaelic in origin? Looks very Welsh.

[Gwenhwyfar]

@Exterminatore Welsh. Comes from a fantasy novel.

[Exterminatore]

@Gwen

The same novel with Rhiannon in it?

[Gwenhwyfar]

@Exterminatore no but I think she (Marion Zimmer Bradley) might have written that too. She’s very much disfavored these days because of the grooming allegations but I still like the name Gwenhwyfar.

[Exterminatore]

Right on.

[jshm2]

Pascals Wager is largely about the futility and limits of human reasoning than any sort of definitive answers.

Both sides feed their polemics and use it as a panacea though. The only way to win the wager is not to play.

[fonduegirl]

He's twisted it theories to his liking. That's the problem with religious philosophy - lot of logical fallacies.

[Clarke498]

So is religion.

[Anonymous]

This is assuming that it’s the Christian god that exists. What if you spend your life living like the bible tells you, only to find Zeus sitting on the throne when you get there?
Pascals Wager is just silly

[BCRanger10]

I agree with it. Though I think he would have been better off elaborating a bit more.

I will say that this is certainly more believable than Epicurus' argument about God and evil.

[Astarlessnightsky]

I think this has to be expanded a little bit.

It doesn't account for the different religions and their gods.

[NamerOfStars]

Rank intellectual cowardice. If your faith is based on fear of punishment or hope of reward, you've missed the point of religion.

[sawno]

To simplistic, what if its reverse and you get into hell by worshiping the devil when he convinced you he is god? Its a lot more than 4 options.

[genericname85]

if you believe in god, you have to give up agency in the only percievable live that you actually do have for unpercievable benefits in a fictional afterlife. try selling that to anybody.

[genericname85]

pascals wager claims that "just believing" is the only thing you have to do. but in fact believing comes with a whole host of unwanted side-effects that he just caually glosses over. but that's what faith and believe does. it lies, betrays and deludes people.

[genericname85]

actually goes to show for the level of delusion, that pascals wager was actually refuted so many times in history already... but i guess it's the nature of faith to ignore everything that contradicts it.

[ChrisMaster69]

That it fails to take in to account of the Pork Sandwich condundrum.

[Ironic_Method]

Youd have to make this a LOT bigger as there are many religions. This is assuming you picked the right one.

[Dargil]

Not much. G0d exists and gives us free will. We make the best of it.

[Aakash_Hangargi]

@jennifer_bloom, would like to know your views and how you interpret this one 😁

[John_Doesnt]

Pascal was a mathematician. There's an infinite number of Gods that people believe in.

[Anonymous]

50% odds on all eternity, quite the wager. Are you prepared for the final judgement?

[Archerer]

Really stupid, bad argument

[Typhon_]

It's way more complicated than that...

[pokerbot]

It's a logical fallacy.