Do you agree with George Friedman on the current situation in Ukraine?

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nightdrot · Accepted Answer

Actually, while I am familiar with Mr. Friedman and generally find his analysis sound, in this case the piece was rather vague and not especially compelling, with elements of the banal thrown in. There were bits and pieces that were not wrong, but somehow this piece was less than the sum of its' parts.

To start with most basic cliche, yes indeed, the commander of a military operation can make a difference to the outcome of a battle or indeed a war. Put a Rommel in command of a military operation, and it is apt to end very differently than if a Custer is in command.

However, even then, certain essentials matter. Rommel, for all his skill, at the end of the day, was beaten. Germany, over time, simply lacked the manpower and resources to sustain a disparate global war effort and the combination of Germany's enemies proved to be more than even a skilled general or admiral could master. In effect, Germany won all the battles but lost the war. Which is to say, Germany won all the battles - except the last one.

Then there was this: "Ultimately, the U. S. controls the war’s course in Ukraine, and therefore Ukraine is hostage to American interests. " Seriously? Ukraine has a limited population and territory. Russia, by comparison, is almost limitless in terms of territory and, comparatively speaking, has almost limitless manpower.

Historically speaking, Russia has done the opposite of what happened to Germany in the world wars. It has lost all the battles and still won the war. So long as Russia is willing to continue the fight, the United States can keep supplying Ukraine, but at the end of the day, it cannot risk nuclear war and it cannot add to Ukrainian territory or population.

In a nutshell, about the most the Americans can do is fight to the last drop of Ukrainian blood. Suffice to say, this suggests that Mr. Friedman is grossly overrating American influence. At the end of the day, much more important is the resources of Russia and Ukraine and American influence on that is not nearly as comprehensive as Mr. Friedman implies.

In a nutshell, America can help Ukraine not lose the war, but it cannot make Ukraine win. That last is in the hands of the Russians and that is what will ultimately be determinative of Ukraine's fate. The cheers from the Western press notwithstanding, Ukraine's situation is actually far graver than it has been portrayed.

Indeed, the funny part of this article is that Mr. Friedman spends most of it outlining the importance of Russian military and political leadership on the how the war with Ukraine will go and then cites the United States as controlling the war's course in Ukraine. That would seem to be a bit of a non sequitur.

Also, Mr. Friedman also then fails to discuss the political situation in the United States, which if the USA is as important as he suggests, would be a critical element in any analysis of the war. In that connection, it is worth noting that President Biden is wildly unpopular and, of all people, populist commentators like Tucker Carlson on Fox News are howling about how the USA cannot risk nuclear war.

Put it all together and this is a rather oddly constructed argument. It seems, at least implicitly, to suggest that the USA will determine the fate of Ukraine. All any American can say is "would that it were so." Unfortunately, as the USA has learned in places like Vietnam and Afghanistan, the United States is not as omnipotent as this piece suggests and actors like Russia are far more important than it is given credit.

goaded · Accepted Answer

Ah, yes, the man for whom the "Friedman Unit" was coined. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman_Unit

The first part could be right, but the final paragraph is way off the mark. It implies that the US wanted that war and that it pressured Ukraine into it, rather than (the people of) Ukraine wanting closer ties to the west to avoid exactly this kind of situation. Yes, the US could pull the rug out from under the Ukranians (like Trump did to the Kurds), but it's their decision how and where to fight and for how long. Their neighbours are unlikely to abandon them, lest they suffer the same fate at the hands of a triumphant Russia.

OddBeMe · Answer

Gonna be honest, I skimmed more than hardily read…but he seems correct.

Changing military command is a political move more than a military one. Putin is probably trying to place blame on the old commander for all hit failings. But ultimately, Friedman seems correct.

I think we always knew that supplying Ukraine will decide the fate of the war. This just like Vietnam, but backwards. Soviets and China were backing North Vietnam against us. And they eventually won. But the idea was destroying American popularity.

I think this could break Putin’s popularity thus ending his reign and constant cyber attacks on democracies of NATO. So I hope, I hope, we only increase aid to Ukraine, because we’re fighting Putin.

Lliam · Answer

The idea that Russia originally planned to invade and occupy all of Ukraine but got stopped by stiff resistance is laughable. Mr. Friedman must rely on government spokesmen for his information.

msc545 · Answer

This is mostly about military strategy and the political implications of military strategy. These are subjects I know nothing about and I doubt very many people do actually.

anylolone · Answer

He's so off the mark that it's a joke. The chenya war was only won after 20 years, russia doesn't have that long before it colapses, and with this war they are accelerating their populacional colapse.

Sixgunsound · Answer

I’m not so sure that any main stream media coverage of Ukraine is factually accurate.

User3191989 · Answer

I fear for Ukraine's existence at this point. What Russia is doing, is not only morally wrong, it's borderline illegal

Guy13 · Answer

It sounds exactly right. Thanks.

PetiteBabe64 · Answer

I can’t Read I’m too Tired.

Bethany22 · Answer

I will have to listen to that.

BeMuse · Answer

Nope. A typical propagandist.

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