For the first time, the joint Franco-German cabinet meeting scheduled for next week has been postponed due to a growing rift between the EU's two biggest powers.
The divisions concern energy, nuclear energy, the Midcat pipeline, but also joint defense programs and space policy (Arianespace).
But Defense is the most delicate, On the common projects (Mgcs, maritime patrol, Tiger etc..), there is only one left (Scaf) and still!
But the question is more profound. By injecting €100 billion into its army and thus its defense industry, Germany is giving a boost that France is having trouble keeping up with. It is taking the lead in the European defense pack.
To this we must add the different approaches on the economic crisis (France tempted by the loan for economic recovery, Germany not), energy (price ceiling refused by Germany, superprofit tax refused by France) Etc. The divisions are deep.
Can the deepening Franco-German tensions have consequences for the EU?
The question is somewhat oddly phrased. CAN deepening Franco-German tensions have consequences - presumably meaning negative consequences - for the European Union? Of course the potentiality exists.
At the end of the day, the EU is only the sum of its' parts. It has had aspirations to become a "United States of Europe" but that is generally resisted in France and many of the smaller and newer member states. Germany and Italy, both important powers but of relatively recent vintage, having only been formed in the 19th century and having been defeated in the Second World War, took to the EU's "pan-European" identity because nationalism was shallower and had, post-1945, developed a bad reputation.
Suffice to say, then, the European Union has depended upon economic interdependence to subsume and reduce - if not eliminate - the conflicting national interests that have made European history so - for lack of a better term - interesting. This deriving from the insight of Adam Smith - the man called the father of free market economics - that, "The merchant has no country."
However, as economic tensions in Europe have begun to rise - see also the anti-inflation riots and protests in France and Italy - and as European politics has generally taken on a more populist flavor, there has been a resurgence in nationalism in the states of Europe. Even in Germany and Italy. (France has always, as referred to above, tended to be more nationalistic. It is an older country with deeper cultural roots. Yet France was willing to tamp down its nationalist tendencies both to secure peace with Germany and also to build French diplomatic weight off of German wealth.)
Suffice to say, and this is skipping over much more detail, as nationalist sentiment and economic resentments rise, the selling points of the EU - transnationalism and economic wealth - are undercut. In theory at least, unless there is something to arrest this pattern, the European Union could be significantly weakened if not completely undermined.
That said, there is plenty to arrest the current trends. Come what may, Germany and France need each other, particularly in the context of rivalries with Russia. Germany affords France the wealth to maintain its' significant armed forces. France provides the armed forces that, under EU auspices, gives Germany a diplomatic weight it might otherwise not have. Though even here, please note, both Germany and France have had a long love-hate history with Russia and this will not, and never has, played out in a straight line. In history, there were periods where each aligned with Russia against the other.
Very long story short, there is nothing that assures that the European Union will endure. That said, there is much that holds it together in that the essential interests of its member states are not neglected by EU membership. Indeed, the EU has survived periods of tension between its member states before.
On the flip side, much depends on how the domestic politics of Germany, France, Italy and other European states play out, and also depends on other great power rivalries. Particularly Russia's ambitions as well as the changing global role of the United States.
The answer to the question is in general terms because the specifics matter. Indeed, as likely as not the EU will endure, but the purposes to which it is put and the role that it has heretofore played could change. Indeed, likely will. In that sense, there will be consequences. It just being a matter of what the consequences will be.
Even if we Germans paid 100 billion for our military we´re not going to be the leading military power since we´re already paying around 50 billion and what are we getting of it?
Definetely not the best military so far. The problem if Germany is world champion in one thing than it´s definetely officialism. We have regulations for everything, like you couldn´t build a garage on your private ground without the approval of your local administration.
It´s the same with the military. The military also has lacks kind of everywhere and government officials stated before Scholz that amount of money that Germany isn´t capable of defending itself. So it would probably need even more than that.
Here 30% of all German military ships and 40% of the helicopters are ready for combat how about that? The rest are to be repaired since Germany has its own standards especially in software so they need longer to repair stuff.
By the way the amount of 100 billion is "Sondervermögen" (german for special budget) since Germany gave itself a regulation in 2009 that the government isn´t allowed to create new debts if there is not a demanding event that came along unexpectly.
The special budget is created by grapping money from near future national budgets so it´s not money that Germany currently has to do so. They are actually debts but because it´s clearly defined when it´s to be paid it´s some how possible.
I´m not really aware of problems in the Franco-Germany relationship because I´m not really following foreign news.
Anyway, you have to underestimate Germany, Germany has the 4th largest economy in the world, with a population of only 80 million people, all the nations ahead of it in economic terms have a much larger population than it, which makes the German economic results some incredible.
Germany having the 4th largest economy in the world can largely afford to have an army to match its economy, of course this would take time, but Germany could have the best army in Europe without any problem, France having a mediocre economy, it will not be able to follow the German military budget.
Yes I´m German. by the way my English isn´t that good and yours is perfectly fine to be understood. I´m not trying to underestimate the potential I just don´t think that Germany will become a military super power like 100 years ago. Because the mentality towards the army has changed. When 100 years people were proud of the army it´s nowadays the case that army has to fight for every candidate they can get. Since 2011 there is no selective service it has been paused that means the army has to advertise itself like any employer on job fairs. I wouldn´t be that afraid that Germany will become the new military superpower that everyone has to be afraid what could become a bigger problem though is the German attitude towards nuclear energy.
Well, you should know that it is the same thing here in France, France has a military industry only thanks to Charles de Gaulle, his successors will only reduce this army today specialists estimate that if France had to face a war of high intensity, it would last only one week, after we would lack ammunition etc..
Even if Germany would have a very powerful army, it would only use its army as France does, in case of defense and it would probably remain in NATO.
But as you have pointed out, there is not only the military question.
Honestly, I told you all my respect for the economic prowess of Germany, but for the energy I find that Germany has really very badly managed it.
If the purpose of NATO is to keep Germany down, Russia out and America in, it’s not doing a very good job on any of those fronts! Tensions between Germany and France would be disastrous at this point to an outside observer. For decades now, it seems that many western countries are content to maintain a parade only military because America will fly in and save the day if anything military needs to be done. Well, the Russian bear is coming for you, and we’ve got our own problems including a military that is unfit to go to war. It makes a lot of sense why Germany would be putting so much money into defending itself, in light of recent industrial sabotage and the inability to rely on its most powerful ally.
France is running out of friends if you ask me. I've been living there for 2 years now and since my arrival they had a falling out with the English, with the Americans, with russia (obviously), now with Germany. Not to mention that nuclear submarine fiasco with Australia.
With worldwide tensions being what they are I'd say this is the time to make friends not enemies since everyone is talking about a new war
First of all, there are no friends in international relations, but allies who have converging interests. France is always allied with all these countries except Russia.
I agree with you, there's no love lost for sure. But alliances require good will, you do something for them they do something for you and these days no one is doing anyone else any favors
Yes certainly, but I think that in the end international relations have always been like that, by the way, where have you been in France, and what nationalities are you?
This is an excellent question. I'm somewhat skeptical that Germany is turning into a normal country, but if so, that's a healthy development overall, if not for the EU dictatorship. The EU has since reunification become somewhat of a vehicle for German national interests, so there will need to be adjustments there. The EU is simply too large, inflexible and unwieldy, and never does this become more evident when Germany or another large EU members asserts its national interest.
Even with rising tensions, creating policies that will negatively affect the defense cooperation projects will not be the first moves from either France or Germany/ Most countries understand that spending money in defense is an investment for the future. They will work themselves out; I just don't see any significant negative outcomes yet.
Germany is acting like it owns the EU, and demand that France just bow down to them. The only "relationship" they want is a master and his slave. In France we talk about the "Franco-German couple", expression that doesn't exist in Germany. That say a lot about how they really see us, and what we are to them.
When Germany stops acting like they're the kings of Europe, and stop trying to dominate us, maybe then things will get better.
Nous ne pouvons pas reprocher à l'Allemagne de défendre ses intérêts, mais nous pouvons en vouloir aux dirigeants Français qui sont naïve.
De toute façon l'Allemagne reste un partenaire très importants pour la France, et je suppose que l'inverse est vrai, bien que très certainement dans une moindre mesure.
Si si, on peut le leur reprocher, quand ils le font ouvertement contre les intérêts des autres membres, et des européens. Quasi toutes les actions allemandes montrent qu'ils ne considèrent pas comme faisant partie de l'UE, mais uniquement qu'ils s'en servent pour affaiblir les autres et se renforcer. Ils prônent la coopération européenne, mais seulement quand elle va dans leur sens. Ils ont charcuté plusieurs projets européens parce qu'ils en voulaient tous les bénéfices sans rien donner. Ils demandent à ce qu'on achète européen, pendant qu'eux se fournissent aux USA, alors que nous avons un secteur de l'armement efficace ici en France. Pareil pour la crise de l'énergie, qui vient du marché européen de l'énergie voulu en grande partie par l'Allemagne. Allemagne qui prône aussi la fin du nucléaire et qui a essayé de l'interdire en tant qu'énergie propre, et de pousser la France à ruiner son propre parc de centrales pour des délires de transition énergétique. Pareil pour l'immigration et la crise migratoire, qui est là aussi une volonté allemande. Allemands qui appellent les masses d'immigrés, prennent les éléments qui les intéressent, et laisse ceux dont ils ne veulent pas se ramener en France. Leur volonté aussi de prendre notre place au conseil de l'ONU, et d'avoir accès au parc d'armes atomiques françaises. Et l'idée "d'armée européenne" uniquement là pour avoir la main sur les forces françaises, parce que leur propre armée est minable.
Non , car chaque nation ne défend que ses intérêts, l'Allemagne les défends et elle a raison, en revanche nous pouvons reprocher aux différents dirigeants Français de ne pas en avoir fait autant, et d'avoir voulu faire autant d'efforts pour ce couple " Franco-allemand" .
Very big consequences as France and Germany interest does not correlate with interests of other EU countries, which we perfectly have seen recently when Germany was blocking sanctions against Russia.
Germans participate in economic sanctions against Russia, and let's not forget that Germany is very dependent on Russian gas, although now with the international situation it tries to find other solutions.
That's only their fault they are dependent on russian gas. New Union has been warning them for 15 years that you can't rely on Russia. They had enough time to find other source
Not for much longer 🤣 the equation is simple, Germany with an economy much stronger than the French economy will have ample means to build an army much more powerful than the French army, and Germany has decided to reinvest massively in its defense by buying American equipment etc
Allow me to specify some important things, Germany is absolutely right to defend its interests and to want an army at the height of its means. In view of the international situation, who could blame her?
It's unlikely France will have a problem with that. They are after all replacing their entire armament of FAMAS assault rifles for the HK416 made by Germany, the US was about to adopt this as well for the entire US army but no longer with caseless ammo the new thing needing a new gun, the US Marines are going with the IAR27 by heckler and koch as their primary weapon and it wilm replace the m4, SAW and designated sniper rifle. The German military is that bad a state of repair that it can only go up in terms of standards. Germany is a major manufacturer of arms and equipment yet it sells abroad with America the biggest buyer of German arms. Germany is likely only buying key equipment like the F35 as it has stuff as good if not better than the US and the means to produce it.
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