Why do you think the predicted Republican red wave never happened?

Question

or did it?

BCA6010 · Accepted Answer

Technically the Republicans won a ton of elections, but like in 2020, a lot of them were at state-level elections that don't typically make national news, and weren't the critical Senate and house races that had been big news for the last month or so. Also, most of the Senate seats that were up for grabs this year were already Republican-held, which put them mostly on the defensive despite rhetoric otherwise.

A major voting trend in the US is that turnout is typically about half of what it is during a presidential election year, and there's a lot of voters who don't consider other elections very important (even though I would argue heavily in favor of the opposite). The quality of candidates in these elections also vary greatly, and this particular year, the Democrats donated over $200,000,000 towards propping up who they believed to be their weakest competition. This definitely paid off for them in Pennsylvania (Oz was probably the absolute bottom of the barrel), and even though the significant majority of the 300+ people Trump endorsed won their elections, most of the prominent ones not only lost, but were also beneficiaries of the aforementioned democrat funding. It also turns out that Mitch McConnell withheld funding from a lot of critical Senate races and squandered it elsewhere. Donald Trump has also taken the obvious bait and decided to attack Ron DeSantis (his ally) unprovoked for pretty much no reason other than childish egomaniacal pettiness, and given the Democrats and GOP elites exactly what they wanted going into 2024. Make of that whatever you want, but the bottom line is that the Republican party is a dysfunctional mess with bad leadership and communication at best, and corrupt leadership that fears actually being in charge and accountable at worst.

On the other hand, there were major Republican wins that are internally causing a panic in the Democratic party. The GOP flipped four house seats in untouchable liberal bastion New York, and turned both Ohio and Florida from historic swing states into decisively red states while also reversing a projected trend of Texas becoming a swing state. Zeldin lost his governor race for NY, but is pretty rightfully credited for getting those seats flipped. State, city, and even school board elections heavily favored conservative or at least anti-liberal indoctrination candidates. While I have serious doubts that the current party leadership is competent enough to really capitalize on the situation (because I think most are insincere and just enjoy the power and status), they are, at least on paper, in a very good position to take the Whitehouse in 2024 since they'll still be able to pin the state of the nation on the head of Joe Biden's administration, which is still viewed extremely negatively nationwide. That's also assuming of course that Trump doesn't do something insane like starting his own party...

Chazmatazz269 · Accepted Answer

A minority of eligible citizens actually vote, despite recent record turnouts. One reason for this is most people only vote when they have imminent issues. There are conservatives in areas of this country that just aren’t seeing what others are seeing. If they live in a red state NOT on the US/Mexico border, and they hunt, fish and garden, fix their own vehicles and run into town maybe once a month sometimes on horseback, they aren’t dealing with the same crap the rest of us are. They MIGHT be seeing it on TV and laughing themselves to sleep every night. Unless they are old enough to be part of a generation that thinks voting is a duty, not a privilege, then they probably stayed home. Right now, it’s the left that is emotionally charged. They can and will quickly motivate to counter swells of conservativism because all they see is problems everywhere all the time. They are a terribly unhappy tribe of people who have literally NEVER grasped that most of their woes are their own doing. They’re overgrown children propping up Daddy Government to run their lives for them despite 70 years of proof that bigger government doesn’t solve much.

Anonymous · Accepted Answer

1. Abortion. Roe being overturned drove democratic turnout. That decision is going to hurt republicans for years to come.

2. Trump. The moderate swing voters you need to win were turned off by his crazy election denialism as well as his coup attempt. Plus he picked lousy candidates to endorse. He’s a burden on the party at this point. Party leadership and their big money donors can’t wait to move on to DeSantis.

3. Democrats have learned to turn out as many early and mail in voters as they can. You get all those less committed voters who may not come out on Election Day to stand in line to vote. It’s smart because the GOP is forced to back Trump’s play on election denialism. By discouraging their voters to not take advantage of early and mail in voting, they’re suppressing their own vote.

Agape93 · Accepted Answer

A few reasons.

Republicans pushing for abortion bans and restrictions not only in half the states, but also nationwide, against voter wishes. Most of the country is in favor of abortion being legal.

Trump pushing shitty candidates and his shitty personality. Both tend to dissuade potential swing voters.

Republicans have really shitty messaging. They have no real substance, only fear mongering. Even Ted Cruz said Republicans need to learn the lesson that you get energized voters when you actually stand for something, which is how democrats keep coming out in force.

Lastly, Republicans need to understand, you make up under half the country. Most people don't largely agree with you except for certain wedge issues which crop up when something goes really wrong.

Anonymous · Answer

Republicans did what the Dems did back in 2016; they got super cocky and slipped up. Republicans didn't realize a few things.

They didn't realize how alienating the election fraud narrative is.
They didn't realize how big of a deal the abortion talking point is for Dems.
They STRONGLY over estimated how much people liked Trump.
They strongly under estimated how gullible the average American is

My personal commentary on this stuff aside, the Democrats succeeded in electing a lot of people who are physically NOT CAPABLE OF DOING THE JOBS WE HIRED THEM TO DO (looking at you, John Fetterman), simply because the Republicans made a point of running tone deaf and unlikeable candidates.

I live in PA. I hated voting Oz because I disagreed with all but one of his policies (his take on Medicare reform was pretty solid), but I voted for him because my alternative was a mentally handicapped person who wasn't even able to give his victory speech.

inhua · Answer

republicans and their voter base got lazy. they arrogantly believed everyone saw what they saw and while they're not wrong that a lot those on the democratic side are crazy and democrat policies have caused a lot of damage to the country, they severely underestimated the stupidity of the American public to do the right thing even those on their side. basically every vote counts but their high horse didn't think so.

the one thing republicans lack compared to democrats is passion even when they're wrong. the way they passionately stand up for their causes is something republicans can learn from even at the expense of making themselves look like idiots. also fear mongering tactics work as well and got the majority of the democrat voter base to turn up in full force.

BeMuse · Answer

I don't know what your expectations were, but hundreds of political positions were taken by the Republicans. The Republicans took more Governorships, more House seats, and will likely end up with a majority in the Senate. Across the country state legislatures and local governments went red in many areas and many right leaning judges were maintained or elected to judicial positions. All that was really needed was a was the a House majority for committee control to form investigations to begin and Governorship of one of the fraud state from the 2020 election which will end up being Arizona when the count is finished. Why the media is trying to slow roll the results and paint a narrative that a red wave didn't occur, even though know Kari Lake was the threat for them, thus why they expend so much energy attacking a candidate they claim lost when the vote was stalled.

Cubus · Answer

Because Trump nominated several extreme election-deniers for candidates. If he nominated candidates that have the same positions except the "election was stolen" part, they would sweep the election.

The best example is Nevada - Adam Laxalt who is a election-denier has a narrowest possible lead of 0,1% at the moment and it's very possible he would lose a Senate election. Meanwhile in governor election Republican candidate Joe Lombardo, who disagrees with Trump on that issue, just won the election with 2,3% lead.

Just nominate mainstream Republican candidate like Brian Kemp or Mike DeWine, stop whining about 2020 election, and you don't need anything more to win.

Agent_Elflord · Answer

It seems like a pipedream at this point. The conservative boomers are decreasing, and it’s becoming less and less popular and socially acceptable to be a republican and it’s kind of like a dirty word now, or at least that’s how it seems in California or on the internet. I don’t know how it is for people in other places outside of the internet though.

My grandpa thinks everyone will “come to their senses” when the prices start spiking higher, but these folks already use the “taxes are the price we pay to live in a civilized society” line and will write off the price spikes as merely a couple cents more and see it as worth it for the other things they want.

Twalli · Answer

Teump doesn't have the support he believed. The Democrats argued that this election was about Democracy. People saw that electing people who would only accept it if they won, as something that would destroy democracy. Look at it like this, enough Trump supporters in positions of power would fo what they could to ensure that their electors would only vote for him. Therefore the vote of the people would be pointless. People realized this and voted for people who are more likely to accept the results of an election. If Trump is the GOP nominee in2024, he will lose. This midterm proves he doesn't have the support. Even though he wasn't actually running for public office, he lost this election.

jshm2 · Answer

Something that isn't there, can't happen.

Trump and his shitbag followers are of the old fashioned Nazi politics "repeat a lie often enough and it comes true"

That shit worked in the past. But these days that puts you in a hole, as computers and readily accessible digital information means you can fact check and verify in seconds what normally would take days and weeks.

Anonymous · Answer

It's funny how you guys keep pushing that narrative even your demon worshipping, propaganda pushing super mason Jimmy Kimmel was onboard with pushing it, anyway... Why did you look the other way when Joe Biden made Afghanistan Taliban Again? Billions of dollars left behind to fund Taliban's current operations... Anyone that thinks the democrats are a good thing for America are delusional... Every Major city under democrat authority is beyond repair at this point, the lies, the corruption and stolen money lead to their demise. What do you thinks going to happen if they have more power? Definitely nothing good whatsoever. We are closer to nuclear war with Russia because of the incompetence of Joe Biden and his criminal cabinet. You'll dislike my statement because you know you can't handle the truth...

Tenebrae_mentis · Answer

Maybe it did and was just counter-acted by an expected blue wave. I haven't looked at the stats, so I don't really know. If I had to guess, people just underestimated how much the younger generation care about personal liberties like reproductive rights. I hear young voters were much more active in the midterms than they historically are in elections.

USLegionary · Answer

They are offering nothing new. Seemingly abortion was more important to a lot of people rather than inflation, energy prices and the economy. Which likely means all those 18-×22 year old college students who are yet to enter the real world where they have to support themselves and all of those 22-30 year olds who still live with their parents.

snowboarder720 · Answer

Republicans are infatuated with believing lies that they are blind to it. Trump only won due to the electoral college, Hillary did win the popular vote. The republicans are all conspiracy theorists that are full crazy. It’s pretty fun to laugh at them when they lose elections.

Soteris · Answer

Incredibly poorly organized elections by the Republicans. They were in prime position to take away control over both the house and senate but they bungled it because apparently they have forgotten how to politic.

FunnyGiy · Answer

Because they type it up to get people over confident so they won’t vote like they’re supposed to do.

It’s surprising the sheer number of people with big opinions but won’t vote or aren’t even registered

Anonymous · Answer

Looking at the poll numbers without considering the outliers or the sampling. It sounds like people made their assumptions just based on how bad things are politically and economically and assuming everyone would just vote for the other party.

Anonymous · Answer

the only people who "predicted" it were republicons using bias republicon shit polls. all the credible, unbiased polls and data weren't predicting a red wave.

TroyDT2 · Answer

Dobbs, Student Loan Forgiveness, lots of crappy GOP candidates, and an electorate that is so polarized that 90% of D's and R's will vote for a burning bag of dog sh*t if it has their party's nomination.

andreasderjuengere · Answer

It wasn't so much a prediction, but rather wishful thinking. Put it like this: the red wave must have been stolen by someone. The early 21st century will be remembered with a smirk.

mobiusforniner · Answer

Unrelated, but why are republicans red when red is the color of socialism and communism, the very ideals they oppose?

Snakeyes7 · Answer

Mail in voting. It was designed so that uninformed voters are more likely to cast a ballot. People who get up and go to the polling locations are more likely to have done their research on their preferred candidates.

Anonymous · Answer

Mostly people under 30 voted, and they think the Supreme Court case outlawed abortion, which it did not. Uneducated, uninformed and blindly indoctrinated from nursery school.

Guy13 · Answer

The Right gives early voting and ballot tossing to the leftists on the front end.

Surely · Answer

The Republicans currently in office did and said too many stupid things. That jinxed the ones running for office.  Forcing the vote in the courts on abortion was a big one!

genericname85 · Answer

who the heck predicted a "republican red wave", when the entire society is drifting to the left? XD makes no sense.

Hispanic-Cool-Guy · Answer

Many Republicans were into denying election results of 2020, the January 6th riots at the capital and stripping woman's reproductive rights was enough of a motivator to cause them to not win big.

exitseven · Answer

The turnout was low and the abortion issue was a bigger deal than anyone thought.

AndrésC64 · Answer

HaHa!

KrakenAttackin · Answer

Fraud. You will never convince me the majority of Americans support the insanity of the lefts agenda.

Fuentes · Answer

It happen most states GOVs are red and most of the house seats became RED enough people to BLOCK Biden and all his weird ass policies now.

jimmy2 · Answer

There already a case in Tulsa that they found only Democratics and independents got a local ballot no republican got one. This is the top of the iceberg

Anonymous · Answer

Dead people and Biden's border buddies Real question is the suspect nature of the Ukrainian situation ending at the same time as the mid-terms

OddBeMe · Answer

because of guys like you. no offense, but you know your views are fringe, right?

AngryCarl · Answer

Because for some reason women decided to vote this time.

WhiteBoyChill · Answer

Because women are sl*ts and they can’t imagine life without abortion

Anonymous · Answer

It did in my state (for better or worse). And my state has always been kind of purple.

Anonymous · Answer

The turtle pulled money from competitive races to find the establishment Republican against the conservative Republican in Alaska.

Anonymous · Answer

It was always hot air. Moist, but no substance.

OfDeath · Answer

Not enough women in the Republican party

Joker_ · Answer

what is the predicted Republican red wave

QuietRunner · Answer

I blame the media

Jamie05rhs · Answer

Abortion

Pterodon · Answer

Abortion

Anonymous · Answer

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Why do you think the predicted Republican red wave never happened?

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