What do you think of ChatGPT's 2028 US Presidential Election prediction?

Question

It's a long way off, but...

A guy asked ChatGPT to predict the 2028 US Presidential election and got interesting results.

ChatGPT predicts JD Vance will easily be the Republican nominee, basically unchallenged, while Pete Buttigieg will narrowly be the Democratic nominee over Gavin Newsom, with AOC a candidate but with minimal delegate support.

In the election, Vance wins easily, with 312-226 electoral votes, much more than the required 270. ChatGPT predicts several states will move more to the right, with easy Republican wins in what used to be swing states like Georgia and Ohio, with Democrat wins much closer in traditionally strong blue states like New York, Connecticut and Virginia.

What do you think about this AI prediction?

If you're interested, you can watch the details in this YouTube video...

BonzoInBitburg · Accepted Answer

I just asked DeepSeek that question and it was non-committal but ironically, it didn't even list Vance as a potential candidate. This is what I got from DeepSeek

That's the big question, and anyone who claims to know the definitive answer is guessing. The 2028 US presidential election is completely wide open, as it will be the first presidential election without an incumbent president or vice president running since 1928.

Here’s a breakdown of the factors that will decide the winner and some potential names that are already being discussed.

Key Factors That Will Decide the 2028 Election:
The Political Climate (2025-2028): The winner will largely be determined by events that haven't happened yet. The state of the economy, major international events, and the performance of the incoming presidential term (2025-2029) will set the stage.
The "Out Party" Advantage: Historically, when a party has held the White House for two terms, there is a strong tendency for the electorate to want a change. However, this is not a hard rule.
Candidate Quality: The nominees each party chooses will be paramount. Voters will be looking for a new generation of leadership, making the primary battles incredibly important.

Potential Contenders (Early & Highly Speculative)
This list is based on current prominent figures and rising stars in both parties. The actual candidates will likely include people who aren't even on the national radar yet.

Potential Democratic Nominees:
Gavin Newsom: The Governor of California is already acting like a national candidate. He has a strong base, deep fundraising connections, and is a prominent surrogate for the Democratic agenda.
Kamala Harris: As a former Vice President, she would traditionally be the immediate frontrunner. However, her path would depend heavily on her performance and popularity over the next four years.
J. B. Pritzker: The Governor of Illinois has a profile similar to Newsom—a progressive governor from a blue state with significant personal wealth to fund a campaign.
Gretchen Whitmer: The Governor of Michigan is a proven winner in a crucial Midwestern swing state. Her brand of pragmatism could appeal to a broad coalition.
Pete Buttigieg: The former Secretary of Transportation and former presidential candidate remains a skilled communicator and would likely run again.
Potential Republican Nominees:
Ron DeSantis: The Governor of Florida will be term-limited in 2026. Despite a rocky 2024 presidential primary, he remains a popular figure with a strong national donor network.
Kristi Noem: The Governor of South Dakota has built a national profile as a staunch conservative culture warrior, though recent controversies have damaged her standing.
Glenn Youngkin: The Governor of Virginia proved a Republican can win a blue-ish state by focusing on education and kitchen-table issues. His brand of "populist conservatism without the drama" could be appealing.
Nikki Haley: Her performance in the 2024 GOP primaries established her as a leading figure for the faction of the party looking for an alternative to Trump's style.
Donald Trump Jr. / Ivanka Trump: If the "Trumpist" movement remains dominant in the GOP, a family member could attempt to carry its mantle. This is less certain but a possibility discussed in political circles.
A New, Unknown Star: The four years until 2028 are an eternity in politics. A new Republican star could easily emerge from the House, Senate, or a governor's mansion.

Anonymous · Accepted Answer

Not surprised seeing as how Democrats have become hyper-focused on identity politics and purity test. This past election, I was on the fence between voting for Harris and staying home, ended up staying duo to all the hate I received from Democrats for not passing purity test, I will do the same thing in 2028, and so will many others I know. The more Democrats double down on identity politics and purity test, the more elections they will lose. One of the things that costed Harris this election and will cost Democrats the 2028 election, is how they treat independent voters, from my personal experience and others I know, is, Republicans, if you don't 100% agree with them, they will still try to win your vote over by focusing on area of agreements where democrats, if you don't 100% agree with them, they push you away by being intolerant towards areas of disagreement.

FreyaRed · Accepted Answer

AI estimates those results without psychological factor of tiredness. Every ruling party or candidate has the problem in less prosperous times of voter become tired of lies and deception caused by ruling party or ruler.
Grocery, fuel and energy prices will break neck of republicans in next election. They will start to distance themselves from Trump few months before election but people won't fall for it if they are angry enough... and it's very likely they will be.
Of course if dems. try to force AOC they will lose again. Newsom will have good chances to beat Vance in my opinion because Trump and reps. aren't capable to stop economic and social decay in US despite GDP that fills only wallets of 1%

juleyboo74 · Accepted Answer

You'd think the Democrats should win in 2028 - polarized society, probably a worsening government debt position, inflation... and as always they will have complete control of mainstream media propaganda.

But the Democrats have gone so insane that I just don't see it. Sitting here right now, I agree with ChatGPT

OlderAndWiser · Answer

AI is no better than the programmers who compiled the code.

molonski2 · Answer

I don't know about JD , that's out for debate..

But a bit like here ( Australia ) - being just one state population wise , it's hard to reverse a trend , it's momentum , and although personally I'd like to see more swing States , it appears to me that the Dems are in complete disarray.

So , I'd say pretty accurate a long way out.

TrimmedTip · Answer

ChatGPT’s prediction is a fun thought experiment—a blend of current trends and data patterns. But real elections are won on emotion, turnout, leadership, and reaction to real-world events.
Treat this like you would a sports prediction four seasons ahead: entertaining, but not something to bet your life on.

Twalli · Answer

If Newsom does what he's trying to do, it will probably ensure he gets the nomination. I think Just Dance Vance will not be able deal with someone who fights fire with fire as Newsom is willing to do. If he thought the couch fucking lie was bad, he's got another think coming.

BadApple69 · Answer

I think it’s a long way off like you said…. The left are working hard to trash JD Vance already, unsuccessfully I will add.
If the left get more drop box, and mail in ballot wins in the courts they could possibly cheat their way to a White House win like they did in 2020.
I agree with the AI that Vance is the best choice and should win the White House. We shall see.

exitseven · Answer

It agrees with the Vegas oddsmakers. There is a lot that could happen in 3 years but if things keep going the way they are going and JD is still Trump's successor he should be our next President.

zagor · Answer

It all kind of depends on how the next 3 years go. Not looking good for either party right now.

If we're lucky someone who is totally off the radar will come up in the meantime and give us an actual positive choice.

Sal_Monella · Answer

Chat got is programmed by lefties. Ask Grok.

purplepoppy · Answer

Sounds right because most dem voters will have been shipped to other countries by then.

mysteriousNicholas · Answer

aviatortom captain, I thought this was a flashback post to 2008 presidential map?

beefcakebradybatson · Answer

And Beardo will further entrench Fascism in America. (If he is elected in 2028 {1} When will Jim Crow be re-instituted?;today is the 406th anniversary of the bringing of the first African slaves to the U. S. and (2) Will calling Vance "Beardo" be considered treason punishable by hanging?)

Anonymous · Answer

Well all the Mexicans, blacks, Asians, Indians, and registered democrats will have been deported, imprisoned, or denied the right to vote by then, and the only people left to cast votes will be neo-nazi skinheads, the KKK, and maga. So yeah the Republicans will likely " win".

There's no way this regime, based on their behavior in the last 8 months is going to permit a fair election if they even permit one at all. No way in hell. You'll find that out come mid-terms.

SaoirseS · Answer

Hoping for all of these names to disappear. They’re all penises with ears, I have zero confidence in any of them.

Iron_Man · Answer

i’m not sure let’s focus on Donald Trump and see what he can do

Snakeyes7 · Answer

I am interested in why it thinks Bootyjudge is the next dem candidate.

Amur8711 · Answer

The betting odds are the better way to see who will win.

Anonymous · Answer

Very interesting prediction, too bad I can't vote, cause I'm not from USA :P

Anonymous · Answer

I don't trust ChatGPT. It likes to just make stuff up. I bet if you ask it the same question 20 times you'll get 24 different answers.

msc545 · Answer

There will not be a 2028 election; Trump will find a reason to cancel it. If he does not, the election suppression will ensure the Republicans win anyway.

DrPepper12 · Answer

I think your "willing suspension of disbelief" required of fiction needs some honing...

Anonymous · Answer

Well chatGPT has been manipulated. lol  Factoring in town halls there will not be another heavy republican anything for decades.

qwerty2469 · Answer

Way to conservative and by conservative I mean they gave the Democrats way to much respect. Nobody votes Democrat except white lesbians and black people. What a joke.

BCRanger10 · Answer

I'd be satisfied with that.

Rangers · Answer

I sure hope so, no more Democratic party insanity

loveslongnails · Answer

Lots will happen between now and then.

DCVsMarvel2 · Answer

chatgpt is a load of crap. all ai is

Jerre · Answer

I think it’s right..

MuddyMole · Answer

Garbage in, garbage out

jimmy2 · Answer

Red wave keeps growing

Dongie · Answer

Sounds good to me!

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