Are oil insiders right that a Middle East standoff could drain supplies by May?

[888theGreat]

With no oil the World stops.

It will be worse than 2008 crisi

It will b than Covid e worse

It will be worse than Great Depression

It will be worse than Dust Bowl

It will be worse than all the above

[BonzoInBitburg]

China sailed 3 tankers through the US blockade yesterday. If Japan, Korea and the EU wanted to do the same, what's the US going to do. Chinese escort fleet have been training in the Gulf of Aden for months for this and countries will cozy up to China for help sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. Obviously China is using this as an opportunity to increase influence around the world. Countries need oil and aren't willing to sacrifice their economy to prevent Iran from enriching uranium. It's becoming Israel and the US against the world and for that reason I believe this will end soon with or without a resolution.

[888theGreat]

They can board ship and take it

[BonzoInBitburg]

The US won't board a Chinese ship and they aren't going to board a ship from a country they want to sign a trade deal with. The blockade is already falling apart which is why they are so desperate to meet with Iran again so soon after accomplishing nothing on the weekend.

[Jersey2]

Do you have a source for that because AI says no they didn’t.

[BonzoInBitburg]

@Jersey2 It's literally all over the news.

www.reuters.com/.../
https://www.the-sun.com/news/16219962/
thehill.com/.../
www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892908
www.newsweek.com/first-chinese-tanker-makes-it-out-hormuz-amid-us-blockade-11825060

[Jersey2]

From AI:

The **Rich Starry** made a **U-turn** in the Gulf of Oman shortly after exiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 14 because it **failed to break through** the U. S. blockade.

### Why the U-turn (concise reasons):

- **No safe onward journey** — Loaded with methanol in the UAE (not Iran), it faced high risks of further sanctions, port denial, or insurance issues if continuing to China or elsewhere.
- **U. S. pressure/deterrence** — Naval presence and warnings likely influenced the decision; CENTCOM reported six other ships turned back after directions from U. S. forces.
- **Test failed** — It probed enforcement as a sanctioned “shadow fleet” vessel but turned back the next day (April 15), returning toward the strait and anchoring off Iran.

In short: It briefly tested the blockade but retreated due to commercial and enforcement risks, not a clean escape. Situation remains fluid.

[Jersey2]

I just looked up the current position of the Rich Starry. It is still in the Persian Guld on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz.

The media hates Trump so they try and make it look like he failed. It came out of the Strait and turned around I would guess after be warned by the US Navy.

Never trust the mass media. They are liars.

[Jersey2]

Gulf*

[loveslongnails]

20% of the world's oil flows through those straits, so the other 80% would have to crank it up. However, about one-third of the world's fertilizer goes through there as well, and that's also going to be a huge issue if it stays closed.

Most countries have no more than a 60 day supply of oil. Ships that left the strait 30-45 days ago are just arriving in the USA and other parts of the western hemisphere. They've already been to Europe and Asia.

Oil companies in the US are charging you more now based on future supplies, not current ones. Other countries in the world have always had higher fuel costs. Diesel is now around the equivalent of $11 a gallon in France, Italy, and other parts of Europe. It's going to get much worse in the USA, especially when demand goes up for the summer.

[Anonymous]

Basically they want us driving in electronic cars not gas I'm not sure if it will drain our oil by may or not. I definitely think we are going to be in another grate depression I'm just not sure how long it will be. My mom's grandfather told her when she was a kid that there would be a 2nd depression and that he wouldn't see it her dad might see it but she and her kids/ grandkids would definitely see it for sure

[Opinion Owner]

thanks

[Horsegirly2001]

No. But I do believe it will pay it up in price.

Be good for the uk because it night finally wake the uk government up.

[888theGreat]

Total Collapse is not waking up

[Horsegirly2001]

Im talking about north sea oil/gas

[indissoluble]

Iran can't deal with a blockage for more than about 10-14 days due to limited storage capacity. After that they have to either have a deal completed that ends the blockade and allows oil to flow or they risk permanent damage to oil wells leading to reduction in production by half or possibly closure of certain wells. Basically if Iran doesn't make a deal, they nuke their own economy.

[indissoluble]

The clock is ticking...

[888theGreat]

and the world , as prices will increase on everyone including the US

[indissoluble]

World oil production was projected to increasing by 1.9 million barrels per day this year and another 3 million barrels per day next year without Iran. World demand only increases by roughly 1 million barrels per day per year. So regardless of what happens in Iran, new oil production will out pace demand and even if Iran oil production was completely halted forever, new demand and all of Irans production would be replaced by the end of 2027 before the price hikes. Iran hurting isn't a problem for the world economy. It's a problem for Iran primarily and their customers (i. e. China) secondarily. It doesn't impact US supply, it just encourages more nations to buy oil from the USA which encourages more production in the USA. When production in the USA rises, then factories are more likely to move operations to the USA to improve manufacturing supply lines. More factories and more resource harvesting improves American GDP and creates jobs. When resources are harvested in USA, and manufacturing jobs increase in America, that brings back White collar jobs to support those industries. Overall this is a huge win for the USA.

[TabascoJohn]

That's a good point about the storage. Where do you put it? 😃

[888theGreat]

US can't process it, no new oil in Middle East , because everything is shut down. Only Promise is Russia, Canada , and Venez , who can process quickly.

[indissoluble]

Looks like the straight is open... WTI oil is at $83 a barrel and falling. I told you guys second weak of April expect $70-80ish a barrel, that rain showers were coming. But do you listen to logical thinking? Nope, you ride on the panic train and propaganda hype from fake news.

[Master_Debator]

Do you not watch the news? I'm going to bookmark this and then probably won't get a response about it in 4 moths. Current gas prices in Cali... almost 6... Now all these countries will buy oil from us...🤔 I think you'll be disappointed in the lower gas prices. Just because it doesn't hurt the R's. .. or maybe because it doesn't hurt the Americans long term. Things are about to relax but whatever, I'm not gonna argue... I'll just be back later...

To laugh at you.

[888theGreat]

It will make gas price higher in US. You need to take Economic classes , study supply and demand.

[Master_Debator]

I have degrees in this subject sir... you just hate Trump and should stick to that. Because you sound like a crazy cat lady. I'll be back for you in 4 months and you proabably already realize you're wrong.

[888theGreat]

Mail order degrees don't count.

[Master_Debator]

Being DummytheGreat don't count for shit.

[Sevenpointfive]

the oil won't be gone in our lifetime, but it wouldn't change my life. i could get an electric bike that would be street legal for my area (ATV's are street legal here lol). i'm not going to buy an EV. but restricting use of oil based services would be manageable. we could find a way to switch entirely to nuclear power? i think batteries are the way of the future and that's okay. i really suck at charging things though.

[888theGreat]

scientists say we have 83 years or so left at same place of use of gas and oil.

[Sevenpointfive]

yeah, so we'll all be dead by then. i do feel like we're getting really close to something. i don't know what it is? but it's the end for sure. how fast of a breakdown would civilization have if we all knew we were going to die in 2 years?

[Zack-Bann]

As much as you want your own country to crumble for some reason, it’s not gonna happen mate


This is nothing like all those events you listed


the only similarities with covid are that some people are spreading fear through false information and overblown crisis scenarios
And those who believe them start writing their wills


Everything is gonna be fine

[lightbulb27]

don't know but sure wish I had a big oil well out back...

I wonder the risk to off shore oil rigs right now? It only take blowing up one to send the oil way higher... not to mention all the injured humans.

Are you riding your bike yet?

[exitseven]

America has all the oil it will need. The strait only supplies 20% of the world's oil. The strqid will be opened soon anyway.

[888theGreat]

You have been saying that for a month

[exitseven]

is a month a long time? The war in Ukraine has been going on for 4 years

[Likes2drive]

None of the above, stock market is doing good today, I think things will get better eventually even though gas will go up more it’s not like when Katrina hit years ago , I noticed you’re always pessimistic

[Anonymous]

It's not looking good. Scary times for sure.

[jshm2]

No. Only Western supplies.

Russia, China and the countries buying from them will be fine - profitable, even.

[msc545]

I don't really know since I'm not an oil insider. I'm not sure I could possibly know since I have no no inside information regarding anything you asked about this.

[Mike_Hum]

Lol, drain supplies? What the fuck does that even mean?

[Dargil]

We have all the oil we need. Buy from US!

[888theGreat]

actually we don't but keep be;ieving the BS

[Dargil]

What BS?

[exitseven]

@888thegreat We are actually exporting oil again.

[Dargil]

@exitseven He can disbelieve whatever he likes. I just want him to vote on November 6th.