Is regime change really the best solution for Iran’s future?

[FrodoSkywalker007]

[capriVib]

Yes, absolutely. But unfortunately, Trump's supposed 300 IQ strategy completely backfired. Khamenei was already 87 years old and nearing the end of his life, yet by blowing up his entire family and even targeting school-level facilities, they turned a man many Iranians disliked into a martyr-like figure. In doing so, they only strengthened both Khamenei's position and the regime's grip on power inside Iran.

https://youtube.com/shorts/8cGdKERwnT4?si=KkyD9E-KL74X8qbH

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Yet people danced and paraded in the streets after his death? The regime was forced to kill tens of thousands in only weeks? Certainly sounds like support. It's been shown consistently that only 10% to 20% of the country supports the regime. You think civilian losses will change that?

[capriVib]

@ThinkerShell?

🤔

[ThinkerShell]

@capriVib to be honest, this Frodo guy seems like an Iranian monarchist (lowest IQ level among Iranian people) hiding his identity trying to exhibit like an intelligent foreigner. Don't want to offend him, I don't mean his IQ is low since what he says may look realistic for a foreigner.
what he mentions as facts are what Iranian society has passed months ago I don't know why they look serious to him.
Never mind :)

[ThinkerShell]

@capriVib by the way... Killing tens of thousands of Iranian people in weeks is funny even if you use your phone calculator... Doesn't need special proves
Or people dancing in streets
And other numbers up there

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@ThinkerShell @capriVib
Oh yes, I must be a monarchist. 😂
gamaan.org/.../

www.theguardian.com/.../iran-protests-death-toll-disappeared-bodies-mass-burials-30000-dead

www.ohchr.org/.../iran-un-experts-demand-transparency-and-accountability-following-nationwide

[ThinkerShell]

@FrodoSkywalker007 another prove showing you don't read the links you send people

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@ThinkerShell 😂 nice reply, considering you have no argument. Funny.

[ThinkerShell]

@FrodoSkywalker007 What I told you could shake your mind but it doesn't. And it means a lot :)

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@ThinkerShell That nonsensical statement only works on Queers for Palestine organizers 😂 I'm not one of those.

[ThinkerShell]

@FrodoSkywalker007 I mentioned what you are :) don't tell me you don't read our comments either haha

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@ThinkerShell assuming you are Iranian, I can tell what you are. There is extreme limitations on internet access, even now. For the longest time only official and supporters received access through SIM cards. Today, best case scenario, its spotty, restricted, and heavily censored.

Interesting acleddata.com/.../has-iran-really-restored-internet-access

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@ThinkerShell I have a friend from Tehran of whom I've rarely spoken to during this conflict. He certainly had disagreements (which I shared with him, and have discussed openly on this website) with Trumps handling.

You, at best, will make arguments that can't be confirmed during a period of heavy censorship. It is a convenient time to be a minority supporter in the country due to the heavy control the government practices out of necessity. Yes, I also follow Iranian state media (which is government owned, and also has a branch controlled directly by the IRGC). It's interesting to follow those reports.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@ThinkerShell I've already replied to your claims of me. If that is your argument, I goes to prove my point. I'm neither a monarchist, or Iranian.

[capriVib]

That's may true. During the first protests, an Iranian friend told me that security forces shot protesters, didn't count those killed by gunfire as official deaths, and even made families pay for the bullets used before they could recover the bodies.

@ThinkerShell After the U. S. and Israeli strikes, didn't many Iranians feel they had to support Khamenei's government to avoid their country ending up like Afghanistan or Iraq? I've also heard claims that around 30 million people attended Khamenei's funeral. I don't think a crowd that large can be explained only by coercion. In the Middle East, U. S. interventions have often led to instability rather than peace.

So, in short, hasn't a large part of the Iranian public become more supportive of Khamenei at this point?

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@capriVib this would be nearly impossible to confirm. It would also go completely against previous sentiment. The government allows no such information to be provided, and barely allows medal access or reports from any organization that could portray it in a negative light. This would be necessary for a collapsing regime.

So, no, this would specifically be an argument made by a regime that is teetering on the edge, and cannot be confirmed by outside sources.

[capriVib]

What can you even say? It's the Iranian people who end up suffering no matter what. On one side, you have Israel and the U. S., who present themselves as defenders of human rights but are responsible for actions that many people see as causing immense civilian suffering. On the other side, you have the Iranian regime, which suppresses its own people and rules through repression.

It's a terrible situation for ordinary Iranians. They're caught between two sides, and they're the ones who pay the price.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@capriVib besides, in regards to the funeral. It's only Farsnews and other Iranian state media reporting mass numbers. No one knows, or can confirm, because no one is allowed in that won't spin someone positive about the regime. iranwire.com/.../

Furthermore, Israel and USA had differing goals. Trump never considered regime change a goal (which is a bad idea). Israel wants it.

How do you expect regime change to happen?

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@CAPLOVE furthermore, you need to study history. No doubt the US has caused problems. That's a reality of conflict. However, to ignore the history of the region, or to imply that there was ever stability is poorly guided. Study the history of those nations and you will realize how silly that argument is.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@capriVib
Sorry @CAPLOVE no idea why you were tagged. Silly accident on my phone I suppose.

[exitseven]

Yes, the archaic government they have is totally not in thr best interest of the population

[lilBigPotato]

The regime isn't just a handful of people that you replace. Iran's regime has people in every possible position. Trying to do a regime change is like trying to behead a hydra. You won't be able to force a regime change from outside.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Luckily 80%+ of the Iranian population want regime change, and Reza Pahlavi has offered to be interim leader. Just depends on Trump to recognize its necessary

[lilBigPotato]

Too late for that. Trump called them to protest just to then watch teen thousands get slaughtered. They won't trust him anymore and if will take many years to build up that momentum again.

[lilBigPotato]

Ten* thousands

[FrodoSkywalker007]

They haven't protested to any significant degree since before the war. Not sure what you are talking about. The loss of trust according to my friend from Tehran is due to his obsession with doplomacy.

[lilBigPotato]

The Iran war doesn't matter. They got slaughtered at the beginning of the year when Trump said he would come to their rescue if they get attacked just to then do nothing and watch them die. The regime is still in place and it will still be in place even if the US kills the new leader. There won't be any new protests anytime soon. At least not if they need to rely on the current US government for help.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

They have actually been asked by the US, Israel, and even Reza Pahlavi (who offered to be interim leader) to stand down. It was dangerous for them to go out into the streets during bombings and as the war continues.

With Iran's collapsed economy, decimated military, regime divisions, and internal strife. It's unlikely the regime will survive.

It really just depends on Trump, he has consistently been the weak link.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

They were asked to stay inside https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603126594

The issue is that most Iranians support regime change gamaan.org/.../

It's been a well known reality for a while.
Many supported the strikes www.npr.org/.../iranians-leaving-the-country-share-their-thoughts-on-us-israeli-strikes https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603041361

Though from my understanding, much displeasure comes from Trump getting into talks. My friend from Tehran has occasionally been online and that was the sentiment he felt. It's been difficult, because the only Iranians allowed on are officials, or those connected to the regime. Even now there is heavy censorship acleddata.com/.../has-iran-really-restored-internet-access

Its difficult to know for certain.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

I have generally followed Tousi tv. He is a Iranian living on the UK. Yes, he supports the regimes collapse. He often reports both what is given by CENTCOM and the Iranian state media (which is owned by the government). He also covers many reports out of the neighbor states. Western media has proven incompetent, and is too politically motivated to be honest on this topic. It's less about Iran, and more about Trump.
Tousi has generally been spot on with his perspectives.

BREAKING: Iran Army Soldiers Flee HQ - U. S. Strikes IRGC Nuclear Town / Tousi TV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPwATkxA31E

[lilBigPotato]

It doesn't matter. Nothing in this war will change the situation of the people suffering. It only added a new layer of suffering on top.

It doesn't matter if the majority of the population hates their government when all the important positions are occupied by the regime. Just Google for Iranian protests and you will find major events for almost every year of the last 15 years. What did it change? Nothing.

There was a chance at the beginning of the year and it wasn't taken. Trump literally told people to go out and protest and that help is on the way, just to then watch tens of thousands of them getting killed.
That's not some western/"fake" news media story, those are facts.
The Iranian people won't trust the US with this again under the current government. First they let them down and then offered them a deal that puts the regime in a better situation than before and even complimented their leaders at some point 🤦‍♀️ why would anyone risk their life based on some meaningless words of someone who lied to them before?

This war won't achieve anything. You cannot win just be throwing bombs from the sky. You would have to send in ground troops and we all know that won't happen. The shit starts again now, more civilians will die and eventually Trump gets bored of scared for the next elections and accepts the next shitty deal that won't fix anything 🙄

[FrodoSkywalker007]

This is completely from your anti Trump and anti American position, and holds no basis in reality.

As I warned you a month ago. The MOU, was nonsense. It wasn't a deal thar could be accepted by the US, and had horrible optics. I remember telling you it had bad optics, and it true would be a generational strategic blunder. However, I also told you I believed it was largely a feint, connected to midterms, etc

Now the US is bombing dual use targets (power plants, airports, bridges. Etc) along with other military targets.

It is clear I was correct

Is possible we will return to talks due to internal conflict in the US? Sure. Trump will do what he can do avoid impeachment and other issues.

Mark my words, the only way to achieve objectives in this war are the total surrender of the regime, or its destruction.

If you believe the Iranian people are weak, that is your own perspective.

[lilBigPotato]

My position on America or Trump doesn't matter. Do I need to show you the videos and social media posts of what Trump said during the last protests? Get you the death count from local organisations during those protests?
Those are what matters. Not what you think that this war might achieve at some point. That's wishful thinking and nothing more.

Wait and see. Come back at the end of this year and see where we're at. I can almost guarantee you that there won't be an ongoing war and that the regime will still be in place. I will be more than happy if I'm wrong, but highly doubt that will be the case.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

When it comes to regime change through air campaign alone being insufficient, I agree. Libya was an air campaign, but I involved Libyans on the ground. Yugoslavia was an air campaign, but it also required a coup on the ground.

I don't believe US troops to any significant degree will happen.

Likely, it will be a degradation of the Iranian regime to a degree that the Iranians themselves take over

It will be painful for them. Destruction, death, economic collapse. When has change ever been easy? Never heard of such a thing, especially in regards to regimes like Iran.

I believe the Iranian people are accustomed to this suffering, as you have kindly stated by mentioning protests.

If you, as a Spainard believe it's best for the world to surrender to these regimes. To allow the west to collapse (it certainly is).. fair enough. Not sure how to reply to that. Europe certainly has surrendered to it. Depressing to see. Though there appears to be hope in nations like the UK

[FrodoSkywalker007]

The issue is you don't recognize how horrible this regime is.
It has attacked the US 100s of times www.fdd.org/.../
It consistently attacked the strait of hormuz, including the tanker war of the 1980s, 2011-12, and even 2019-25. It's routine.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

I agree with you that Trump is often an idiot, but I also believe TDS is a serious issue.

Nothing is ever gained without pain.
You are from Spain, once one of the greatest empires. Europe used to recognize this reality.
Now it's happy to support terrorism if it helps keep food on the table or gas in your cars. Sadly, many Americans see it the same way.
This illusion that significant changes can be made without suffering.
It's partially why the west is falling, along with our allowance of invasion.

Imagine this, Qatar, who has supported the IRGC, is the biggest foreign funder of education in the US. Now "Queers for Palestine" makes sense 😂

'Raises a lot of questions': Qatar has spent nearly $100B in the U. S. to gain influence: Report / MS NOW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyGW1KiB4eE

[FrodoSkywalker007]

If, you are correct and Trump gives up, or (especially), throws them tons of money. I agree, it's a disaster, and likely a sign of the beginning of western collapse. It will be a dark Era. More Iranian regimes will rise. Western values will disappear completely.

However, from what I've seen and predicted. I've been right so far.

[lilBigPotato]

I am very well aware of what that regime has done, I just don't agree with your perspective on this war and how we ended up here and no where did I said that I support any of their doing. In the same way, just because Spain doesn't support the US war doesn't mean it's automatically a supporter of the Iranian regime.

There are regimes that are managed by a relatively small elitist circle on top, and there are regimes that have their roots through every level of the population and support from millions of people. The Iranian one belongs to the latter and that's why, despite very strong anti regime movements for years, there are no signs of them being overthrown anytime soon, even after getting their leaders bombed away.
It will take a long time to get back to the previous momentum and maybe then there's the next chance.

Anyway, enough of this topic from my side, I'm out 👋

[FrodoSkywalker007]

😂 fair enough.
Looks like protests have broken out again. You were wrong on that perspective.

LIVE: Anti-IRGC Protests ERUPT In Iran - Trump Declares WAR Is Back / Tousi TV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRvbINUOuRQ

Well, see ya, I guess.

[confident666]

I think it's the only option, but it should be a full regime change...

[Lliam]

Yes. Regime change in Israel, like the regime change in Nazi Germany at the end of WWII.
The belligerent, expansionist, racist theocracy, Israel needs to revert to a civilized democracy named Palestine where Muslims, Christians and Jews can once again live in harmony as they did for centuries before the Zionist terrorists began arriving.

If that happened, Israel would not be attacking Iran and other neighboring countries and there would be no need for Hezbollah, or Hamas freedom fighters.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@Lliam there we go! The unbiased opinion I needed. 😂

[Lliam]

Yeah, I'm biased toward lying, thieving, sadistic, mass murdering rapists.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

@Lliam 😂 I had you figured out with my first guess.

[jshm2]

LOL, when has it ever worked? Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, Vietnam... the list goes on.

None in the West have ever successfully enacted a regime change.

So called "regime change" is just code for "fuck this country up, so we can exploit it"

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Sounds good to me

[DryGermanGuy]

Only on paper and even then, the perfect moment in time has already been missed. In reality it would be the 2003 Iraq invasion all over again, only about five times worse.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

So negative 😂

[strateguy632]

like shah. when shah ruled he cooperated. but need secular like turkey.

[darkcloud1945]

Bombing it into oblivion would be the best for all people and start to rebuild as a sane country that respect their own people's wishes for a normal country and life.

[sawno]

Name me the instance where regime change had a positive effect after world war 2. I'm sure there is at least one but I can't think of one.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

It's complicated. Depends on what you mean by good? Good for the US, isn't always good for all.

[strateguy632]

noriega +maduro venezuala are famous ones. probably more.

[Anonymous]

Iran has been raging a war against America and its allies for 40 years. They are gambling that America doesn't have the bottle for war.

[FreyaRed]

US strengthen massively regime position in Iran with last actions. Forget regime change there

[FrodoSkywalker007]

It's actually forced the IRGC to take over the government by most reports, which is a desperate move. Many are report8ng significant division.

[Staximus]

All that fundamentalist ayatollah bullshit needs to end

[canamlusciouslad73]

Yes, but they may get an even worse fanatic than their current a**hole.

[Snakeyes7]

Whatever gets them to stop attacking Americans, I am ok with

[In_Trance]

Nothing's going to change for them no matter who is in charge. Ever

[Anonymous]

Well, given the previous regime murdered tens of thousands of its own citizens, it is kind of hard to defend it.

[TonyMetal___1986]

100% 👍🏻

[Cidknee]

Mo'Natcha!

[_Jenny_]

I’m not sure