How accurate are HRMs for calories estimate and can you lose weight without counting calories?

Two questions in one, so here we go:

1) Does anyone now how accurate heat are monitors are for estimating the calories your burned?

I'm just wondering because mine gives a higher number than expected. I usually do Intervals for 30min. With fairly long phases (2-3min) of a high heart rate (165-180) and shorter phases of recovery (1 min) at a heart rate of 130-140. The I do 30 min of steady cardio (140) it calculates roughly 600cal for that. On an other day I took a spinning class(30min) used the stairmaster (30min) and then did irish dancing (60 min) and it calculated 1000 cal. It just seems like a lot, that's half the calories you need in a day extra.

2) Can you lose weight without acutally counting calories (or points or something like that)

I tried several calorie calculators and they all give different results. I just don't know what to stick to. Plus when I cook, sometimes I don't eat the whole portion or a lot of the olive oil stays in the pan, so my intake is very inaccurate anyways.

I'm eating a low carb diet without any processed food, would it be possible to still lose weight without counting calories if I just only eat when I'm hungry?
How accurate are HRMs for calories estimate and can you lose weight without counting calories?
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