Why I believe Republicans like Donald Trump have zero chance of becoming the next president of the USA in 2016

Why i believe Republicans like Donald Trump have zero chance of becoming the next president of the USA in 2016

A Canadian observer here...

This will be a relatively quick myTake by my standards, but i just had to point out something I and many others have been observing in American politics today. You can't turn on the news over the last few weeks without seeing at least a mention of what crazy ass shit some republican (usually Donald Trump) said. Now, i follow American politics closely...even closer than i do the politics in my own country sometimes...largely because you can't get by in this world if you don't know what's going on at the political level of the single biggest superpower the world has ever seen, especially if you're a person interested in investing money in asset classes like stocks as bonds as I am. So I've been looking at this republican campaigning process very closely. Watched most of the debates so far to their entirety, and I've been following the developments on the left as well, with Hilary Clinton slowly but surely getting curbstomped by Bernie Sanders. My conclusion? The republicans have zero chance of winning in 2016, barring one caveat which i'll get into later.

So why do I think republicans like Donald Trump, despite all his popularity at the moment as an outsider candidate, has zero chance of winning in 2016? Well it comes down to one simple thing: If you are a republican running for office today, particularly the office of president of the USA, you have to make an important choice. You have to choose whether or not you want to win the republican primary, or if you want to win the general election...because you sure as hell aren't winning both. Of coarse, that's a bit of a catch 22 since you sort of need to win the primary to even have a chance at winning the general election as a republican...but that's really my point. Why do I say this? Well its come to my, and a lot of observers attention that in order to win a republican primary in 2016, you need to say the most batshit crazy, degenerate, retarded and downright wrong things in order to get the panties wet of a sizeable number of your constiuency, and then somehow like magic, you need to unwind all of that crazy and convince democrats and independents (which combine pretty much make up the majority of the people one needs to appeal to in order to win) that you aren't a lunatic. The result of that is an almost guaranteed victory for the party who comes out with even the most luke warm of candidates in my view.

Still not convinced? Well then, lets rewind back to what happened in 2012. As most of us know, Obama had a fairly resounding victory against Mitt Romney in the 2012 election cycle. What a lot of people are unaware of though is that Obama made history yet again when he won a second time, but this time it had nothing to do with the color of his skin. In 2012, Obama was the first president since FDR to win re-election with unemployment as high as it was at the time.

Now tell me this...how does someone who's approval ratings at the time were less than stellar, whos very name had become a symbol of hatred and division, with the unemployment rate so ridiculously high for a one term president? People....understand that Obama did not win again because he was so great. That much should be obvious. He won again because the Republicans were so bad. This is the fundamental lesson one should take from what happened in 2012. Romney was a terrible choice by the republicans because he said things that were completely unfavourable to the changing American demographics. Well actually, he probably wasn't a terrible choice. As bad as he was, he was probably the least bad of what the republicans had to offer at the time. He and the other republicans were much too anti-poor, anti-immigrant, anti-women and anti-sanity when it came to foreign policy to appeal to democrats and especially to independents, who sorry to say Republicans, make up the remaining majority of people that you need to convince of your compotency to lead in order to become president. Republican candidates continue to fail to acknowledge/understand the changing demographics of the country they live in. You can't win by being a super religous zealot/war monger anymore.

So now that we've taken a trip down memory lane, lets fast forward to what we have today. Today, unemployment in the USA is even lower than what it was when Obama made history again in 2012, and instead of being more moderate, the republicans have by and large become even more crazy than they were in 2012.

If you are an American, and if you aren't familiar with how things are in the rest of the world, the republicans may not seem all that crazy to you. But ask a good number of outside observers what they see when they look at the republicans, even the conservative observers, and you'll find that many will be almost totally turned off by the republican candidates, all but one usually...and that sort of leads into the one caveat i mentioned at the beginning of all this. I was watching the second republican debate a day or so ago, particularly Rand Paul's performance, and I remember after hearing his response to a stupid attack Trump made towards him thinking "jeeze and lord mercy....Rand is way too smart to win a republican primary." The guy was talking about trumps "non-sequetors" while you had the rest of them saying the most moronic things I've seen from presidential hopefuls in a long time.

Now again, this is my personal opinion, but of all the republican candidates, Rand Paul is the only one who would have a real chance at beating someone like Hilary Clinton or even Bernie Sanders. He's the only person I've seen from the republican side who is consistently correct (well, a better word would be sane) on issues like foreign policy, big government and the unfortunate war on drugs. He has a fairly populist message, but unfortunately, he is too well nuanced to be taken as seriously as i think he should be by a lot of republican voters. Make no mistake though, I believe even he has a bit of crazy in him, but i do think he's the best republicans have to offer. However, it seems like republican voters are by and large looking not only for the most outsider candidate, but also the least nuanced ones....the ones who paint things (like planned parenthood) and groups of people (like mexicans and muslims) with the broadest brush possible. Because Rand Paul isn't like that, he polls at 1% in most polls I've seen. Ironically, I think he'd do better running as a democrat than he would as a republican, but i digress.

So I'll conclude by saying this: To the people on here reading this, the Americans and non-Americans alike who seem super worried about people like Donald Trump becoming the next president of the largest superpower this world has ever seen...learn to rest easy, as I do. 2012 has taught me one thing...that is, when republicans go too far right, too crazy, democrats make history. Obama did it in 2012 by being the first president since FDR to win re election with unemployment so high. If Hilary is the democrat nominee, she will do it too by being the first woman elected as president of the USA (despite how bad of candidate I personally think she is) or if he is the nominee, Bernie Sanders will do it by being the most extreme socialist to win the general election without an economic catastrophe like the Great Depression/Recession in the backdrop. Take a look at the platform Bush ran on in the early 2000's. As much as he is hated today, he didn't run on a platform as far right as the republicans routinely do today. Think about it. So at the end of the day, I'm not worried at all about my country will be next door neighbours to a country being led by a loon who would blow up the middle east and send oil prices to $150/barrel. It's just not going to happen, barring some cataclismic event...and I'm fairly confident in saying this.

Cheers,

Watermelonoma


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What Girls Said 11

  • Because he's a racist bigot... and if there's one thing that America stands for it's equality?

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    • Well there's another idiot that doesn't know the difference between race, invasion, or law.

  • He's a turd ball entertainer and nothing more.

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  • I'll be surprised, if he hasn't have a bad record at university, on bipolar or depression.

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  • The popularity of these nut-job bigots says a lot about a majority of Conservative Americans. I'm so disappointed in everyone supporting these pathetic people.

    Great MyTake,

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  • He has a Bad attitude...

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  • there are three canadiates that I'm wanting to vote for like Ted Cruz Jeb bush and trump and one resion why I would vote for trump is he said at the presidential debate that he won't for get about people doing drugs and he also said he wouldn't for get about people not having jobs and he said he would help people to get jobs and if those things he said are really true then I'm voting for him but if that's not true then I'm gonna vote for him and I'll vote for ether Cruz or bush instead

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    • What does he mean he won't forget drug users? whats he going to do to them? Every single member of the Bush family should be hung for the crimes they commited against our country.

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    • So, you want to give your vote to the NWO clan?

    • I don't know what nwo clam is

  • I'm praying so hard that bernie will be elected

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    • Bernie's economic policy ideas are more insane than a syphilatic Donald Trump.

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    • @aliencreature

    • I love it how American people love the idea of a big government, because they've never lived in one lol

  • he's really good at working crowds... he's got lots of fans. but I think Hillary will win in the end, since she's more feminist.

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    • Hillary will be lucky if she doesn't end up in jail for the rest of her life. It may take several more months or a year, but she'll violated multiple treason laws and her polling numbers are the least of her concerns.

    • @Ratiocinative maybe. but I bet she'll win. it wouldn't surprise me if she did. I don't know how she'll get past the laws though. do you think anyone would dispute it if she did?

    • if its her or trump she will win. thats why rand paul has to wipe the floor with him.

  • i really hope you are right

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  • Republicans have an uphill battle with whoever wins the election. The media is so sold out to the democrats, last time it Obama and so far now its hillary. The media is all over trump because he fits there stereotype of a republican (rich old white male).

    Carson and Fiorino don't fit the stereotype so they are being more or less ignored.

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    • Carson is a joke token black man who no one has ever heard of the republicans roll out every election to try and make themselves look inclusive to minorities lol
      Republicans do pretty well with getting there message heard no matter how ridiculous it is

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    • yeah your the one who needs a history lesson lol

    • @cjmtherfcker there are two Hispanic senators and one Indian governor on the Republican side running. You're right, Republicans were never the party to cover minorities, but they are doing pretty good so far in this election cycle concerning diversity. Notice that i'm talking about elected officials of Republican Party, not just any non-white Republican people.

  • Please, Trump should not win. If he does, the United States will be done, destoryed.

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    • Barry already took care of that.

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    • @BigJake Exactly how did Barry already take care of that? By getting 75% of America insured? By having the longest streak of private sector job growth ever? Because the dow went from 6000 to 16000? Because unemployment is at 5.1 from 7.5 when he got elected?

    • You truly have no idea what you're talking about. All the other candidates are for some type of open borders and with no border a country isn't a country, wake up!

What Guys Said 32

  • You Canadians gave us the second worst Canidate after Trump
    to anyone who knows someone who thinks obamas birth certificate is fake.
    HERE IS A FACT
    TED CRUZ WAS BORN IN CALGARY.

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    • Also If by some miracle he did get elected, My moneys on the Secret Service Shooting him themselves so they don't have to protect that raging asshole

    • I'm voting Sanders

  • I've always said Rand Paul vs Bernie Sanders is what America needs.

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    • you know i used to feel that way until i actually ran the numbers on bernies tax plan and socialist policies. his voting record in the senate has been mostly constitutional (unlike most) but his socialist plan of action sounds an awful lot like the nazis 25 point plan, and will ultimately cost us 47 trillion at minimum of money we dont have. you'd think a jew would know better than to trust socialism, Nationalsozialismus wasn't too far in the past and people forget, hitler was democratically elected

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    • @Waffles731 more than that. he would have won if they hadn't. against obama? please! ron would have won by a landslide. even romney was neck and neck with him, and he's fucking romney.

    • @aliencreature That should be his name, Fucking Romney.
      I live in of Massachusetts.
      The one who thought of nothing more than a stepping stone

  • Given that you're Canadian, I rather doubt you anticipated Trump could even become a contender, much less the front runner in the GOP race.

    Given that, how can anyone really take your opinion that seriously? It would be like me writing an essay on Canadian politics.

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  • Great take man I completely agree. I also don't think Sanders has a chance because of how socialist is still a swear word in American politics. I think in the future someone like him is possible though. The GOP alienates way too many groups and going into the future they will have to change if they want to win elections outside their states.

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    • Thanks :). This is true too. Socialism is a fairly dirty word in the U. S., though I've seen polls which show that young Americans may not view the word as negatively as the older crowd might. I think at the end of the day though, people will probably vote for whoever keeps things like their social security in tact, and republicans are notoriously weak on those issues

    • You have more faith in everyday Americans than I do it seems lol

      You're welcome man

    • its a swear word with good reason
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bX3EZCVj2XA
      you really need to watch this. every American needs to watch this its 100% relevant to all of us

  • He's really not a republican. Look at him prior to this election. He's almost exclusively backed Democrats. He backed Hillary the last time she ran for president. What people don't know is the two of the actually are butt buddies. Hell Hillary sat FRONT ROW at his most recent wedding...

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  • TLDR,

    One side ZERO chance in your fragment of imagination & other side He is Leading in almost every single polls.

    Enough Said. Trump2016.

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  • TRUMP 2015

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  • The whole election is a sham.

    Everyone by now should be realising that Clinton is the next President.

    First black president (nothing bad about it of course) voted in... Clinton will become the first female.

    No one else has a chance.

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  • he will win to show america the elections has always been a joke.

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  • Considering he's worth only a few million (Not billions as claimed), has claimed bankruptsy 4 times, and hasn't told the truth yet on stage - not once (source: www.politifact.com/.../)...the fact that he flip-flops constantly, and is a complete hot-head which likely would turn nations into all out war... His odds are pretty shitty if half the population does any homework and researches... Then again... maybe he stands an okay chance...

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  • Trump is not a Republican. He gave a lot of money to the Clintons over the years. He is pretty much there to run as a third party candidate when he doesn't win the nomination, handing the election to Hillary (despite her blatantly obvious corruption).

    I don't even vote anymore, because our political system is broken beyond repair. We are ruled by the elite, and people like Bush and Obama ate little more than puppets who do what they are told by the people who put them there.

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  • We'd be lucky to have Rand Paul as president. Despite what some media outlets distort, Paul polls above Clinton and the other Republicans in some states, especially following the second debate. 'Cause people realize the other Republicans will fire whatever crap comes to form at their mouth.

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  • You got a few point right, however you got a bunch of them wrong. When someone says something that actually sane and make sense aka Donald Trump, those that have been brainwashed into thinking wrong is right and right is wrong think he and his remarks are crazy. These immigrants you mentioned there isn't 11 million of them as the media has been portraying, there is over 40 million of them and they aren't immigrants they are trespassers that entered the USA illegally. And all the programs US citizens have been duped into buying into such as social security are being ripped off by those trespassers that aren't entitled to any of those programs including education and healthcare. Now you mentioned Obama and his big victory in employment, well, that just happens to be a lie too. The media is in on the take down of the US and they are in full force with the use of propaganda on US citizens. If you don't believe that google NDAA 2012 propaganda. Those jobs you mentioned does not exist in those high number the media has lied about and the jobs that are there are going to illegals in every city across the USA. Today like 2012 the US has a very high unemployment rate thanks to the current squatter that doesn't even have a real birth certificate and the loser that had 8 years before him. The republican party is in serious trouble but not for the reasons you say, it's because the republicans promised the constituents they wouldn't give the current squatter what he wanted only to turn right around and give him every single thing he asked for and then some with a bonus. Why do you think John Boehner is stepping down? Here's a hint, it's not for the reasons given but because the republicans want him not only gone but prosecuted for his actions too. The USA is NOT the super power is used to be anymore and that's thanks to the current squatter and thief in office. If there is anything that will keep Donald Trump from winning it's that he's bucking the NWO elitist proving he's not their puppet. The US constitution has never been so assaulted as it is now with the current squatter in office. The sad part is it seems a lot of idiots when asked say the assaults on the constitution is needed and don't bother them. What those idiots fail to realize is the constitution was put there to protect them as the law of the land and it's on its way out now. Once gone they have no idea what trouble they are in for when the goobermint can and will do anything they want to unchecked.

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  • Trump is shit-stirring. He has no intention of becoming president. He would quit if it came to that. The most interesting thing about Trump's candidacy is the right wing base showing what it wants in a candidate. This is what Republicans have bred for decades, so they shouldn't be surprised that Trump is winning.

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  • I have been saying since Obama was re-elected, if republicans dropped the radical evangelical agenda, they would win in a heart beat. It is clear they have yet to drop that, and have instead ramped up xenophobia.

    Having lived abroad for a year, I can say it is absolutely spot on that the rest of the world find the party to be a joke, many I met are still in disbelief that Trump is even running, let alone with such popularity. I know of a few countries who have already outright said they refuse to even deal with him. If he were to win miraculously, we really would be alone in this world. The only reason you hear so much from him and his crowd is he is the only republican as of now to unify all the rejected, racist and sexist men. They are a minority, but the rest of the conservatives are split around half a dozen other candidates.

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  • This is my problem with being a sane right leaning person. I support Rand Paul VERY much, but many people on the Republican side are so deranged they'd never vote for him.

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    • i always hate the word "leaning". it implies everyone falls somewhere on a spectrum
      rand paul is the best candidate as an individual, not because he is a republican. with how virtually indistinguishable the 2 parties have become even democrats should recognize it.
      republicans no longer believe in the republic, they believe in the corporate ochlocracy
      democrats no longer believe in the democracy, they believe in the corporate ochlocracy
      rand paul believes in liberty, and a balance of powers between our democratic republic. in that sense he is truer to the original philosophies of both republicans and democrats then anyone else from either party

  • It's cute that foreigners like yourself think you understand the US, and it's even more precious that you actually think we care what the rest of the world thinks of us.

    Your understand of Trump and what he stands for is way off base. His politics aren't far right in the least, which is why far-right political groups have branded him a RINO (look it up) from day one. He's battled with the far-right from day one, so much so that he's now persona non grata on the far-right media of record in this country, the Fox Network. Trump was actually a registered democrat for years as a younger man. He doesn't hold any of the right's beliefs about science or religion, himself being mostly agnostic.

    No, Trump is an independent if judged solely by his views, and the GOP power structure is so worried about him running as an independent that they made Trump sign an agreement to not do so for fear that it would split their vote enough to engender a plurality victory for the Democrats a la 1992.

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  • Trump would hand the presidency over to hillary. A criminal or a foul mouthed moron... or a socialist, if bernie gets the democratic nomination. fuck that, rand paul is the only option. we deserve better choices, but rand paul is the ONLY choice if we want our country to last another 4 years

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  • Sorry, but you have no clue what you're talking about. Republicans lost in 2012 because the nominated someone who was too similar to a democrat. When Republicans run strong conservative campaigns like they did in 2010 and 2014, they win big. Republicans ran on defeating Obamacare in 2014 and they won by a landslide.

    Of course after winning the election, they didn't do what they promised to do. That's why so many Republicans don't go to the polls. Even if we win, we still lose because the people that get elected are liars and crooks.

    Donald Trump is winning in the polls right now because he's got balls, or at least he had balls. From what I've seen in his responses to the media stories about the guy at the town hall mean that mention Muslim, Donald is apologizing way too much. He did nothing wrong but he keeps apologizing. That lost him a lot of support.

    That's the difference, when Democrat candidates do something stupid, or even illegal, they don't apologize for it. Of course it helps they have the media on their side, but they still show more balls than republicans do.

    America is far more conservative than liberal. If everyone was required to vote, Republicans would win almost every election. The problem is that most Republican candidates get scared by the media, turn in to weak, apologetic, beta males, who never keep their promises. Why would people be motivated to go to the polls and vote for someone like that?

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  • trump does win? I'm moving to Canada

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    • Oooh, even better, if he does win, im moving to mexico, just to piss him off

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    • my friend and i are opting for dual citizenship anywhere they can't extradite us from. i've been learning french and italian so when the shit hits the fan, (and it will) the number of places i can flee to are greater

    • Good idea

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