Why I believe Republicans like Donald Trump have zero chance of becoming the next president of the USA in 2016

Why i believe Republicans like Donald Trump have zero chance of becoming the next president of the USA in 2016

A Canadian observer here...

This will be a relatively quick myTake by my standards, but i just had to point out something I and many others have been observing in American politics today. You can't turn on the news over the last few weeks without seeing at least a mention of what crazy ass shit some republican (usually Donald Trump) said. Now, i follow American politics closely...even closer than i do the politics in my own country sometimes...largely because you can't get by in this world if you don't know what's going on at the political level of the single biggest superpower the world has ever seen, especially if you're a person interested in investing money in asset classes like stocks as bonds as I am. So I've been looking at this republican campaigning process very closely. Watched most of the debates so far to their entirety, and I've been following the developments on the left as well, with Hilary Clinton slowly but surely getting curbstomped by Bernie Sanders. My conclusion? The republicans have zero chance of winning in 2016, barring one caveat which i'll get into later.

So why do I think republicans like Donald Trump, despite all his popularity at the moment as an outsider candidate, has zero chance of winning in 2016? Well it comes down to one simple thing: If you are a republican running for office today, particularly the office of president of the USA, you have to make an important choice. You have to choose whether or not you want to win the republican primary, or if you want to win the general election...because you sure as hell aren't winning both. Of coarse, that's a bit of a catch 22 since you sort of need to win the primary to even have a chance at winning the general election as a republican...but that's really my point. Why do I say this? Well its come to my, and a lot of observers attention that in order to win a republican primary in 2016, you need to say the most batshit crazy, degenerate, retarded and downright wrong things in order to get the panties wet of a sizeable number of your constiuency, and then somehow like magic, you need to unwind all of that crazy and convince democrats and independents (which combine pretty much make up the majority of the people one needs to appeal to in order to win) that you aren't a lunatic. The result of that is an almost guaranteed victory for the party who comes out with even the most luke warm of candidates in my view.

Still not convinced? Well then, lets rewind back to what happened in 2012. As most of us know, Obama had a fairly resounding victory against Mitt Romney in the 2012 election cycle. What a lot of people are unaware of though is that Obama made history yet again when he won a second time, but this time it had nothing to do with the color of his skin. In 2012, Obama was the first president since FDR to win re-election with unemployment as high as it was at the time.

Now tell me this...how does someone who's approval ratings at the time were less than stellar, whos very name had become a symbol of hatred and division, with the unemployment rate so ridiculously high for a one term president? People....understand that Obama did not win again because he was so great. That much should be obvious. He won again because the Republicans were so bad. This is the fundamental lesson one should take from what happened in 2012. Romney was a terrible choice by the republicans because he said things that were completely unfavourable to the changing American demographics. Well actually, he probably wasn't a terrible choice. As bad as he was, he was probably the least bad of what the republicans had to offer at the time. He and the other republicans were much too anti-poor, anti-immigrant, anti-women and anti-sanity when it came to foreign policy to appeal to democrats and especially to independents, who sorry to say Republicans, make up the remaining majority of people that you need to convince of your compotency to lead in order to become president. Republican candidates continue to fail to acknowledge/understand the changing demographics of the country they live in. You can't win by being a super religous zealot/war monger anymore.

So now that we've taken a trip down memory lane, lets fast forward to what we have today. Today, unemployment in the USA is even lower than what it was when Obama made history again in 2012, and instead of being more moderate, the republicans have by and large become even more crazy than they were in 2012.

If you are an American, and if you aren't familiar with how things are in the rest of the world, the republicans may not seem all that crazy to you. But ask a good number of outside observers what they see when they look at the republicans, even the conservative observers, and you'll find that many will be almost totally turned off by the republican candidates, all but one usually...and that sort of leads into the one caveat i mentioned at the beginning of all this. I was watching the second republican debate a day or so ago, particularly Rand Paul's performance, and I remember after hearing his response to a stupid attack Trump made towards him thinking "jeeze and lord mercy....Rand is way too smart to win a republican primary." The guy was talking about trumps "non-sequetors" while you had the rest of them saying the most moronic things I've seen from presidential hopefuls in a long time.

Now again, this is my personal opinion, but of all the republican candidates, Rand Paul is the only one who would have a real chance at beating someone like Hilary Clinton or even Bernie Sanders. He's the only person I've seen from the republican side who is consistently correct (well, a better word would be sane) on issues like foreign policy, big government and the unfortunate war on drugs. He has a fairly populist message, but unfortunately, he is too well nuanced to be taken as seriously as i think he should be by a lot of republican voters. Make no mistake though, I believe even he has a bit of crazy in him, but i do think he's the best republicans have to offer. However, it seems like republican voters are by and large looking not only for the most outsider candidate, but also the least nuanced ones....the ones who paint things (like planned parenthood) and groups of people (like mexicans and muslims) with the broadest brush possible. Because Rand Paul isn't like that, he polls at 1% in most polls I've seen. Ironically, I think he'd do better running as a democrat than he would as a republican, but i digress.

So I'll conclude by saying this: To the people on here reading this, the Americans and non-Americans alike who seem super worried about people like Donald Trump becoming the next president of the largest superpower this world has ever seen...learn to rest easy, as I do. 2012 has taught me one thing...that is, when republicans go too far right, too crazy, democrats make history. Obama did it in 2012 by being the first president since FDR to win re election with unemployment so high. If Hilary is the democrat nominee, she will do it too by being the first woman elected as president of the USA (despite how bad of candidate I personally think she is) or if he is the nominee, Bernie Sanders will do it by being the most extreme socialist to win the general election without an economic catastrophe like the Great Depression/Recession in the backdrop. Take a look at the platform Bush ran on in the early 2000's. As much as he is hated today, he didn't run on a platform as far right as the republicans routinely do today. Think about it. So at the end of the day, I'm not worried at all about my country will be next door neighbours to a country being led by a loon who would blow up the middle east and send oil prices to $150/barrel. It's just not going to happen, barring some cataclismic event...and I'm fairly confident in saying this.

Cheers,

Watermelonoma


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What Girls Said 11

  • He's a turd ball entertainer and nothing more.

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  • Because he's a racist bigot... and if there's one thing that America stands for it's equality?

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    • Well there's another idiot that doesn't know the difference between race, invasion, or law.

  • I'm praying so hard that bernie will be elected

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    • Bernie's economic policy ideas are more insane than a syphilatic Donald Trump.

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    • @aliencreature

    • I love it how American people love the idea of a big government, because they've never lived in one lol

  • The popularity of these nut-job bigots says a lot about a majority of Conservative Americans. I'm so disappointed in everyone supporting these pathetic people.

    Great MyTake,

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  • i really hope you are right

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  • there are three canadiates that I'm wanting to vote for like Ted Cruz Jeb bush and trump and one resion why I would vote for trump is he said at the presidential debate that he won't for get about people doing drugs and he also said he wouldn't for get about people not having jobs and he said he would help people to get jobs and if those things he said are really true then I'm voting for him but if that's not true then I'm gonna vote for him and I'll vote for ether Cruz or bush instead

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    • What does he mean he won't forget drug users? whats he going to do to them? Every single member of the Bush family should be hung for the crimes they commited against our country.

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    • So, you want to give your vote to the NWO clan?

    • I don't know what nwo clam is

  • he's really good at working crowds... he's got lots of fans. but I think Hillary will win in the end, since she's more feminist.

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    • Hillary will be lucky if she doesn't end up in jail for the rest of her life. It may take several more months or a year, but she'll violated multiple treason laws and her polling numbers are the least of her concerns.

    • @Ratiocinative maybe. but I bet she'll win. it wouldn't surprise me if she did. I don't know how she'll get past the laws though. do you think anyone would dispute it if she did?

    • if its her or trump she will win. thats why rand paul has to wipe the floor with him.

  • I'll be surprised, if he hasn't have a bad record at university, on bipolar or depression.

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  • He has a Bad attitude...

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  • Republicans have an uphill battle with whoever wins the election. The media is so sold out to the democrats, last time it Obama and so far now its hillary. The media is all over trump because he fits there stereotype of a republican (rich old white male).

    Carson and Fiorino don't fit the stereotype so they are being more or less ignored.

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    • Carson is a joke token black man who no one has ever heard of the republicans roll out every election to try and make themselves look inclusive to minorities lol
      Republicans do pretty well with getting there message heard no matter how ridiculous it is

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    • yeah your the one who needs a history lesson lol

    • @cjmtherfcker there are two Hispanic senators and one Indian governor on the Republican side running. You're right, Republicans were never the party to cover minorities, but they are doing pretty good so far in this election cycle concerning diversity. Notice that i'm talking about elected officials of Republican Party, not just any non-white Republican people.

  • Please, Trump should not win. If he does, the United States will be done, destoryed.

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    • Barry already took care of that.

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    • @BigJake Exactly how did Barry already take care of that? By getting 75% of America insured? By having the longest streak of private sector job growth ever? Because the dow went from 6000 to 16000? Because unemployment is at 5.1 from 7.5 when he got elected?

    • You truly have no idea what you're talking about. All the other candidates are for some type of open borders and with no border a country isn't a country, wake up!

What Guys Said 32

  • Sorry, but you have no clue what you're talking about. Republicans lost in 2012 because the nominated someone who was too similar to a democrat. When Republicans run strong conservative campaigns like they did in 2010 and 2014, they win big. Republicans ran on defeating Obamacare in 2014 and they won by a landslide.

    Of course after winning the election, they didn't do what they promised to do. That's why so many Republicans don't go to the polls. Even if we win, we still lose because the people that get elected are liars and crooks.

    Donald Trump is winning in the polls right now because he's got balls, or at least he had balls. From what I've seen in his responses to the media stories about the guy at the town hall mean that mention Muslim, Donald is apologizing way too much. He did nothing wrong but he keeps apologizing. That lost him a lot of support.

    That's the difference, when Democrat candidates do something stupid, or even illegal, they don't apologize for it. Of course it helps they have the media on their side, but they still show more balls than republicans do.

    America is far more conservative than liberal. If everyone was required to vote, Republicans would win almost every election. The problem is that most Republican candidates get scared by the media, turn in to weak, apologetic, beta males, who never keep their promises. Why would people be motivated to go to the polls and vote for someone like that?

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  • I have been saying since Obama was re-elected, if republicans dropped the radical evangelical agenda, they would win in a heart beat. It is clear they have yet to drop that, and have instead ramped up xenophobia.

    Having lived abroad for a year, I can say it is absolutely spot on that the rest of the world find the party to be a joke, many I met are still in disbelief that Trump is even running, let alone with such popularity. I know of a few countries who have already outright said they refuse to even deal with him. If he were to win miraculously, we really would be alone in this world. The only reason you hear so much from him and his crowd is he is the only republican as of now to unify all the rejected, racist and sexist men. They are a minority, but the rest of the conservatives are split around half a dozen other candidates.

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  • You Canadians gave us the second worst Canidate after Trump
    to anyone who knows someone who thinks obamas birth certificate is fake.
    HERE IS A FACT
    TED CRUZ WAS BORN IN CALGARY.

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    • Also If by some miracle he did get elected, My moneys on the Secret Service Shooting him themselves so they don't have to protect that raging asshole

    • I'm voting Sanders

  • Choosing between republican and democrat is like choosing between arsenic and cyanide the symptoms are different but the end result is the same.

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    • you don't like either parties at all?

    • @VampireEmpress Both are incompetent, both are sycophantic panderers who are only out for themselves. Both have damaged our society and allowed for the infrastructure of our country to fall into decay. So no, both parties are toxic and I do not like either of them. I could give a very long list of why but really all you need to do is look around at the state of our country to see it.

    • I agree. and they're all paid to say everything anyway.

  • Great take man I completely agree. I also don't think Sanders has a chance because of how socialist is still a swear word in American politics. I think in the future someone like him is possible though. The GOP alienates way too many groups and going into the future they will have to change if they want to win elections outside their states.

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    • Thanks :). This is true too. Socialism is a fairly dirty word in the U. S., though I've seen polls which show that young Americans may not view the word as negatively as the older crowd might. I think at the end of the day though, people will probably vote for whoever keeps things like their social security in tact, and republicans are notoriously weak on those issues

    • You have more faith in everyday Americans than I do it seems lol

      You're welcome man

    • its a swear word with good reason
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bX3EZCVj2XA
      you really need to watch this. every American needs to watch this its 100% relevant to all of us

  • Considering he's worth only a few million (Not billions as claimed), has claimed bankruptsy 4 times, and hasn't told the truth yet on stage - not once (source: www.politifact.com/.../)...the fact that he flip-flops constantly, and is a complete hot-head which likely would turn nations into all out war... His odds are pretty shitty if half the population does any homework and researches... Then again... maybe he stands an okay chance...

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  • Trump is shit-stirring. He has no intention of becoming president. He would quit if it came to that. The most interesting thing about Trump's candidacy is the right wing base showing what it wants in a candidate. This is what Republicans have bred for decades, so they shouldn't be surprised that Trump is winning.

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  • "Obama had a fairly resounding victory against Mitt Romney in the 2012 election cycle"--actually, it was narrower. Arguably, had Romney chosen Marco Rubio as running mate and possibly thus pulled the majority of Florida into voting for him, he might have even won.

    Resounding is something like 1984, 1980, or 1972.

    In fact, it has been many years since a truly resounding Presidential victory (which I define as greater than 55% of popular vote) by either party's candidate.

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    • Moreover, I would argue that the Republicans failed precisely *because* they nominated Milquetoast Mitt, who did not fire up their base to turn out, and failed to woo the disaffected independents.

      You are buying into the Left dogma that the Independents are all mushy middles who still routinely vote, when the reality is that a large portion of the electorate is significantly further Right, but has tuned out and given up on voting because they are disgusted by the Establishment of the GOP. The Immigration issue, where the GOP Establishment falls all over itself to Hispander, but still fails, and an issue upon which Donald Trump has seized, is a very good example of this.

      Another good example the striking new popularity of talk radio and alternative forms of media, ranging from the cutting edge internet, to the resurrection of once moribund AM radio. All of this is happening on the political Right, not the Left. The indies are not centrists, they are disaffected Rightists.

    • he got over 300 electoral college votes both elections. Think he was close to 400 the first time

  • Admittedly I am not watching the news or doing any research about any of the candidates, but I think I might still vote.

    I don't like Trump as a candidate, but when I take the I Side With quiz, I always end up having ~95% similar beliefs to him...

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    • thats because he panders to the lowest common denominator and you're 95% that
      but dont trip you're not alone thats why they call it common. you still shouldn't vote for him

  • We'd be lucky to have Rand Paul as president. Despite what some media outlets distort, Paul polls above Clinton and the other Republicans in some states, especially following the second debate. 'Cause people realize the other Republicans will fire whatever crap comes to form at their mouth.

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  • It's cute that foreigners like yourself think you understand the US, and it's even more precious that you actually think we care what the rest of the world thinks of us.

    Your understand of Trump and what he stands for is way off base. His politics aren't far right in the least, which is why far-right political groups have branded him a RINO (look it up) from day one. He's battled with the far-right from day one, so much so that he's now persona non grata on the far-right media of record in this country, the Fox Network. Trump was actually a registered democrat for years as a younger man. He doesn't hold any of the right's beliefs about science or religion, himself being mostly agnostic.

    No, Trump is an independent if judged solely by his views, and the GOP power structure is so worried about him running as an independent that they made Trump sign an agreement to not do so for fear that it would split their vote enough to engender a plurality victory for the Democrats a la 1992.

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  • A lot of American undecided voters are dumb and will probably vote for Trump. Based on the reactions I've seen from people I'm starting to get scared that he could actually be president.
    Most Republicans and undecided voters ignore the racist comments and just say "I like how he speaks his mind". The only thing those people want to vote for is somebody who they think is cool or patriotic or if they just say what people want to hear. Many voters don't even care at all about his political views and say they'll vote for him just because he's a Christian.

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    • its true people should care less that he speaks his mind and more what is inside it

  • I agree with you. Though I'm an anarchist of the anarcho-capitalist variety, I have to agree with Rand Paul on many of the issues. He isn't trying to appeal to the far-right wing of the Republican party like the other candidates are, and he's the only one up there whom has consistently been criticizing bad drug and foreign policy. He's not quite his father, but he's still pretty good.

    However, I don't think Hillary will beat Trump. Trump is too confident and self-assured. Trump can't beat Bernie, though. Honestly, I can't imagine Rand losing to either of them.

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    • i'm so glad you're voting age. they keep trying to snub rand in the polls and the media. we can't let them do like they did to his father

    • It looks like it's going to happen, but I'll do what I can.

  • Trump is not a Republican. He gave a lot of money to the Clintons over the years. He is pretty much there to run as a third party candidate when he doesn't win the nomination, handing the election to Hillary (despite her blatantly obvious corruption).

    I don't even vote anymore, because our political system is broken beyond repair. We are ruled by the elite, and people like Bush and Obama ate little more than puppets who do what they are told by the people who put them there.

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  • Truth.

    Moderate, reasonable republican candidates are nowhere to be seen. They're all in a race to out-right-wing each other.

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  • Given that you're Canadian, I rather doubt you anticipated Trump could even become a contender, much less the front runner in the GOP race.

    Given that, how can anyone really take your opinion that seriously? It would be like me writing an essay on Canadian politics.

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  • I think I would not want Sanders, but Paul, Carson, and Rubio are smart people. Trump, however, is a joke.

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    • Well, it looks more and more likely that Trump will be the nominee. He can pretty much say anything and not have it affect him in the polls whatsoever -_-

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    • Carson and rubio can't hold a candle to paul but they're still leagues better than the rest of the shitshow

    • dont trust trumps "polls" he's a proven fraud who juices his numbers in social media with "like farms".
      i wouldn't be surprised if they found a way to cheat the gallup polls too

  • Stand With Rand! I hope he is able to pull off a victory, but I highly doubt it.

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  • This is my problem with being a sane right leaning person. I support Rand Paul VERY much, but many people on the Republican side are so deranged they'd never vote for him.

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    • i always hate the word "leaning". it implies everyone falls somewhere on a spectrum
      rand paul is the best candidate as an individual, not because he is a republican. with how virtually indistinguishable the 2 parties have become even democrats should recognize it.
      republicans no longer believe in the republic, they believe in the corporate ochlocracy
      democrats no longer believe in the democracy, they believe in the corporate ochlocracy
      rand paul believes in liberty, and a balance of powers between our democratic republic. in that sense he is truer to the original philosophies of both republicans and democrats then anyone else from either party

  • Trump would hand the presidency over to hillary. A criminal or a foul mouthed moron... or a socialist, if bernie gets the democratic nomination. fuck that, rand paul is the only option. we deserve better choices, but rand paul is the ONLY choice if we want our country to last another 4 years

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