The Only Poll That Counts Is On Election Day

[Spiorad_Aisce]

Introduction:

When I was getting ready for the take competition, I developed a few ideas while I was waiting for the topics to be announced. The US election is the number one news story on GaG, in the US and possibly in the world so it made sense that Society & Culture/Trending would appear as a topic. With that in mind, I had a think about the election. A dual formatted take started to evolve (1) I was actually thinking about Star Trek for another take and I thought wouldn't it be fun to look at alternate universe elections and results throwing in other factors/people (2) A look at the expression a "Turnout Election" and what I think it means. This is part of the #BATTLEROYALE contest.

Notes (1) :- It is a very unconventional and fast moving election campaign process so for the sake of accuracy I will put the date and time I submitted the take here to say these were the facts as I knew them on Tuesday 08/09/16 at 03.00pm (GaG Time)

Notes (2) :- For the sake of fairness I will try and stay neutral. Any bias is subconscious also I am Irish so I might miss some of the nitty gritty that Americans get on the ground. I only get CNN International and CNBC TV stations so I miss the Republican/Trump flavoured FOX News. Plus there are claims that Google is biased towards Hillary Clinton. Those are my main news sources so there might be a slight anti Donald Trump slant in the references to news I use.

Notes (3):- The Independent Republican candidate Evan McMullin only announced his run yesterday but I don't see him getting any traction so for the purpose of the take I will leave him out of reckoning.

(1) For A Bit Of Fun, Star Trek Predictions And Scenarios:

For those of you who have never seen a "Star Trek" alternate universe, it was basically a place where all the same characters existed but acted differently thus creating another version of reality so for a bit of levity we will create these alternate scenarios.

(1.1) Donald Trump Wins:

It is funny because without a doubt Donald Trump has the strongest political mandate and anywhere he loses has more to do with an anti Donald Trump vote rather than any other candidate.

- Reality first, a five way contest in November with a low turnout which will be explained later on in take - Donald Trump (R), Hillary Clinton (D), Gary Johnson (L), Jill Stein (G) and Evan McMullin (Ind)

- Some party splitting has happened, a 7 way contest so you have Donald Trump (Tea Party), Mitt Romney/Ted Cruz/Paul Ryan (R), Hillary Clinton (D), Bernie Sanders (Prog) and other 3. In fairness I give Bernie Sanders a squeak here depends on Donald Trump's behaviour during the election campaign.

- Bernie Sanders wins Democratic nomination even though he was beating Donald Trump in opinion polls, I can't see enough of the anti Donald Trump centrists coming that far left. As above I give him a slight squeak here

- Outside factors the one that comes to mind is a major terrorist attack by a ISIS cell or a lone wolf terrorist attack by an Muslim immigrant on US soil.

- Another one that comes mind is an email bomb goes off but I will touch on that possibility in next point. This happens at a time when no new nominee can be put forward to replace Hillary Clinton.

As a very mad caveat would the anti Donald Trump vote be strong enough to swing to Gary Johnson. So in 4.6 of these scenarios I have Donald Trump winning with a slight chance for Gary Johnson at 0.4

Email Bomb Caveat:

My thoughts on this. If an email exists that can indict Hillary Clinton and Hackers/WikiLeaks have it. Why I think not, is who hates Donald Trump more than anyone else in the whole world, Barrack Obama, I am presuming the CIA/The President/DNC know what is out there and what is going to be leaked. Would they be in their right mind to allow a candidate go forward who will be disqualified and hand the White House to Donald Trump. The worst it will be, I think is stuff about Middle East policy that maybe led to increase in ISIS plus the DNC maybe asking Hillary Clinton at one stage "Do we have anything to worry about regarding emails?" thus implying they believe that incriminating emails existed at some stage, it might affect things but I don't think it will be enough to swing election either way.

(1.2) Hillary Clinton Wins:

She is running a strong anti Donald Trump campaign so I see her path to White House in these circumstances

- Reality a 5 way contest in November with a high turnout which will be explained later in the take

- Donald Trump goes rogue, I know it sounds strange but we are all surprised that Donald Trump has stayed relatively on message since last Thursday. In the cold light of day the 5/7 days post DNC have cost him a lot.

- Donald Trump goes doubly rogue and somehow splits his candidacy from the Republican Party

- Donald Trump thinks he is going to lose and withdraws with no time for a new nominee ( There is a slim chance if Donald Trump supporters go en masse to Gary Johnson but will they turnout?)

- Outside factors Donald Trump's Tax Returns, I don't see them having a huge effect, I will discuss the caveat after image.

- A non terrorist mass shooting thus reigniting gun control debate so here I have Hillary Clinton winning 5.8 of these scenarios and Gary Johnson winning 0.2

The Tax Returns Caveat:

Donald Trump is now hinting that the "IRS Audit" will not be finished by election day. I personally think he is making it worse by not revealing them. The theories I have heard are:

(a) They will show he is not as wealthy as he says he is - Not a biggie, a blow to his ego maybe.

(b) Donald Trump feels that the fact Mitt Romney was shown to have been paying a "Real Tax Rate" of 14% in 2012 and it hurt him badly in the polls so I presume Donald Trump is availing of all the tax breaks/loopholes to drive down his "Real Tax Rate" - Not insurmountable

(c) His charity donations are not as much as he says - Not insurmountable

(d) This is the one I most believe while the checks to see if he has any business in Russia have come up blank, is there Russian money being invested in his other ventures outside Russia? - Not insurmountable

The reason I say these ideas are not too bad is because keeping the tax returns back allows opponents to float more and more conspiracy theories about his tax returns.

(1.3) Gary Johnson wins:

As noted above if one of the major candidates pulls out plus if both pull out or the email/tax returns bombs are more powerful than I think (Assuming no time for party replacements)

(1.4) Jill Stein or Evan McMullin wins:

It would need a bizarre and unrealistic set of events for either of these to win.

(1.5) Bernie Sanders wins:

In reference to the 7 way contest, if a big anti Donald Trump vote I could see him winning. In the two way contest between Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, if you in throw in the caveat of Donald Trump going rogue and a very strong anti Donald Trump vote , Bernie Sanders may have a chance then. This is also the contingent on Hillary Clinton withdrawing and the Democrats putting Bernie Sanders on the ticket.

(1.6) Replacement Republican/Democrat scenario:

For whatever reason one or other of the major candidate has withdrawn, say Donald Trump withdraws or leaves Republican party. It would depend on the conditions that caused Donald Trumps actions, it could split vote. It would be a big hill for a Mitt Romney/Ted Cruz/Paul Ryan to overcome but for fairness I will put image up.

- Hillary Clinton has to leave race and the Democrats go for a Joe Biden over Bernie Sanders, it is a tough climb but I think more doable for Democrats than Republicans.

- If both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have to withdraw then it is Mitt Romney/Ted Cruz/Paul Ryan Versus Joe Biden, I think the Democrats have momentum at the present time.

(2) A Turnout Election:

Wow, that first part was more complicated than I thought it was going to be. It was only an afterthought because the take was meant to be about the turnout on election day. The basic premise of this theory is that a high turnout will elect Hillary Clinton and a low turnout will elect Donald Trump. For the purpose of this part of the take, we are going to say everything remains equal, no major outside events, pure number crunching. The election has polarised the American people like no other and possibly as high as 90/95% have decided which way they will vote if they vote. To all intents and purposes as referenced above, it has become a pro Donald Trump vote versus an anti Donald Trump vote so I feel that it is not the undecided who seal the fate of this election but the people who don't vote.

Okay, look at the far right of that graph, a huge spike in 2008 and a small drop off in 2012 but still a lot higher than 2000 and 2004. That was the "Obama Coalition" getting Barrack Obama elected, I feel Hillary Clinton needs a 55% plus turnout at this stage for the "Anti Donald Trump Coalition" to vote her in. Why is turnout so important? - (I know it is not a popular vote but a state by state vote but I obviously haven't the room or the knowledge to break that down)

For the sake of argument we will pick 130 million as the 55% turnout mark, we will give Gary Johnson 7% and Jill Stein/Evan McMullin 3% (that is 13 million, we are down to 117million), we will give Donald Trump a rock solid 37% of his base plus 3% loyal republicans to give him 40% (52 million) and we will give Hillary Clinton a fairly solid 30% (39 million) a not so solid 10% of other anti Trump votes (13 million), this 10% is the most important group, the "I am not sure about Hillary but I prefer her to Donald", will they come out and vote for Hillary Clinton in sufficient numbers? - They could stay at home or write in a name. That leaves 10% who are undecided about voting at all (13 million) but will probably split in favour of Hillary Clinton if they vote.

Leaving those numbers aside for the moment I go back to a blog Michael Moore wrote about the five reasons that Donald Trump will win https://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/ in which he spoke about the fervour of the Donald Trump supporters, they will be there half an hour before the polling station opens, they will round up their neighbours/friends/relatives to vote Trump and the "Anti Donald Trump coalition" once it gets over 30% is into serious "Will I bother to vote today?" or "Can I get past voting for a candidate as the lesser of two evils"

Look what happens to Donald Trump's solid 52 million as turnout reduces:

55% Turnout 130mill DT 52mill 40%

53% Turnout 125mill DT 52mil 41.6%

50% Turnout 118mill DT 52mill 44%

If the other 3 get 10% that is means 54% is gone and of the remaining 46%, the solid Hillary Clinton vote could be well behind Donald Trump and she would have to win heavily in those last few undecided voters to overtake Donald Trump. Now if we look at the rising turnout:

57% Turnout 135mill DT 52mill 38.5%

60% Turnout 142mill DT 52mill 36.6%

We add in the other 3 (10%) and get 46.6% which leaves 53.4% to play with. Hillary Clinton should be close or ahead of Donald Trump at this stage and will just need the undecided to break in her favour which should get her elected.

Conclusion:

My conclusion is there is no conclusion. This has been the most unconventional election in my lifetime. The electorate is totally polarised. The Donald Trump campaign has been all about him, his personality and him being the outsider, the voice of the people throughout the primaries . So the Democrats have turned it into an election about him, it has become a pro Donald Trump vote and a anti Donald Trump vote. The republicans are trying to pivot to a general election campaign and take light away from Donald Trump, to put it onto the issues themselves plus drag Hillary Clinton's character into it as well. I am reminded of two unusual quotes I heard on CNN over the past few weeks because of both candidates' very high unfavourable ratings.

The Republicans have picked the only candidate who could possibly lose to Hillary Clinton and the Democrats have picked the only candidate who could possibly lose to Donald Trump

and

The Democrats want to turn the election into a referendum on Donald Trump and the Republicans want to make it a referendum on Hillary Clinton

This election still has many twists and turns to come even the fact I include a date and time in the take because the campaign is so changeable says it all (maybe a partial joke). I haven't a clue how it will turn out.

[gotc147]

You can crunch numbers all day long, there is no way to predict which way the election will go.

Yeah you can point out that Trump is trailing badly in some polls and I can counter that he's tied with Clinton in others, but as you said, the only poll that matters is the one on election day.

And we haven't even had the debates yet, this game can swing back, then forth, then back again then forth again and maybe even back again after that before Americans pull the lever.

[Spiorad_Aisce]

I agree - I said in conclusion there is no clear prediction to be garnered, it was just looking at numbers in the popular vote and comparing to the phenomenon that was the "Obama Coalition"

[Rissyanne]

Dude you are very much against Trump... do you can't say you are neutral. Especially given your conclusion.

[HulkkSmash]

This is why women shouldn't be able to vote

[Rissyanne]

@HulkkSmash but we can so suck it up

[HulkkSmash]

For now

[VictoriousSausage]

Who isn't, the man's been likened to hitler, i see Trump supporters and they all say exactly the same thing, but to be honest, i shouldn't really be poking my head in here, i can't even vote in your election, and frankly, we're living on a very, very thin knife edge here in teh UK. i wish you americans all the luck in the world in the general election.

[Rissyanne]

@VictoriousSausage Do you know anything about Hillary? Or do you agree with how corrupt she is. Putting our country in danger... to fill her pockets. She is evil

[VictoriousSausage]

i don't deny that either, which is why i don't envy your decision, but right now in the UK, we have a Tory (conservative) government that wants to bring back privatised health care, grammar schools, and raise university tuition fees through the roof, while giving tax breaks for the rich, so we have our hands full here.

[Rissyanne]

@VictoriousSausage So why in the hell do you give a shit about what is going on in the US? It sounds like you all better tend to your own problems...

[VictoriousSausage]

Because the US is an influential power in the world, and because your people are some of the kindest and friendliest in the world, and i'd hate to see you go through something like this shitty election you have coming up, but all i can do is sit back and watch.

[Rissyanne]

@VictoriousSausage well there is nothing you can do about it. I am voting for Trump.

[Loadedgamer]

In the end of which president is decided, they will be counterbalance by the seperation of powers!

Legislative branch- which simply means can make a bill into veto!

Judicial branch- can the law unconstitutional

Executive branch- the ones that enforce the laws!

[Spiorad_Aisce]

Yes - Separation of power is so important for any democracy

[Anonymous]

"the only poll that matters is election day" is commonly said by candidates who are losing the polls. www.rollcall.com/.../six-things-losing-candidates-say

Mitt romney said this often, said the polls in PA had a heavy democrat bias and created a website supposedly showing him leading in PA without the bias. He lost PA.

Polls are generally accurate. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/.../

[Spiorad_Aisce]

I do agree with you but I was phrasing it based on the excerpt from the MIchael Moore blog I used where he said that Hillary may appear well ahead in the polls, some might say can't be bothered voting - Donald's base will turnout 95% plus that is where turnout becomes important.

[TesticleMonster]

Literally the only thing that needs to happen for Gary Johnson to win is for people to see him as a viable option. There is a high enough discontent even among 'supporters' on both sides of the 2 party system, that the only thing they're really waiting on is for him to poll high enough. There is a certain threshold, where more and more people--ahem, sheep--will feel comfortable with that, so he just needs to gradually roll that snowball and the rate at which it rolls will grow exponentially.

[Spiorad_Aisce]

You know what if he gets to the debates I can see the dynamic you describe happening but winning might be a stretch. It could be more who he takes more votes off.

[TesticleMonster]

it took 6 months for your parents to decide not to abort you, so if voters still can't decide in that amount of time, then fuck it, they should have probably been aborted.

[Spiorad_Aisce]

We'll find out on the morning of the 9th of November then I suppose.

[Other_Tommy_Wiseau]

Didn't read the entire thing. Anyways, even those don't really matter since our votes don't even count. They're basically just suggestions. Just like the parties can elect whoever they want to be their nominees, even if it's against what the people voted for. The GOP almost died it with trump

[Spiorad_Aisce]

I agree and disagree - By the time it gets to the general election your average voter who was not involved in primaries has no choice but to accept party nominees but on the other hand, it is almost impossible to see how an individual can make it through without backing of a party unless they are amazingly wealthy and even then they are still well behind party nominees at start so it is a huge hill to climb for them. I think the two party system has to be looked at, I feel they might be better of as two or more like minded coalitions of smaller political parties because the current party bases seem to be stretched too thin.

[Other_Tommy_Wiseau]

I wish I had the motivation to give an actual response to this 😑. As per the 2nd part of your answer, I have a take that explains that and how to fix it. Keep in mind it's more satirical, but you get the gist

[tyber1]

A more realistic scenario for Gary Johnson to win than one of the major candidates dropping out is if he can get into the debates. Debate planners are planning for 3 podiums this election...

[Spiorad_Aisce]

Yes I just mentioned that to another commentator about the 15% for the debate - Is there moves to abandon this or do the TV stations feel he will get the 15% - I just checked last CNN poll he is at 9% on that.

[tyber1]

Well he is already at or above 15% in many parts of the country, he has even turned Utah into a legitimate 3 way race, he is being anchored down by 4% support in the northeast. There have been a lot of polls where he is at 10, 11, 12 and even 13% support and the presidential debate commission has stated that they're willing to be somewhat flexible. It's a definite possibility. Spread the word about him. There's no moves to abandon this, it's a completely new thing.

[Anonymous]

Normally whichever party or candidate generates more hits on google is the winner. To me that would be Trump at 430 000 000 vs Clinton's 248 000 000.

[Spiorad_Aisce]

Interesting fact - It could very well be as big a factor if not more than any of my theories

[John_Doesnt]

We didn't vote for George W. Bush, the electoral college and courts did. So even that poll didn't count.

[Spiorad_Aisce]

I remember Gore won the popular vote and the court cases about Florida,

[Curmudgeon]

Sorry, but the election rules are about a majority of people *in a majority of states*. The Constitution says so. It is partly by people, but also partly by territory.

[Spiorad_Aisce]

@Curmudgeon Yes, you are correct I didn't phrase my reply properly - I meant the court cases were about Florida and the result there which ruled that it was a state that Bush's won - I understand the electoral college system and number of 270 so theoretically you could landslide in a lot of states and win popular vote by large margin to still lose.

[John_Doesnt]

@Curmudgeon which is ridiculous because it makes a person's vote void if they happen to live in the wrong area. What is worse is that it puts a value on where a person lives. According to the constitution you can't discriminate against someone based on the state they live in, yet that is exactly what the electoral college does.

[Curmudgeon]

According to the constitution, yes, you can. Which is why there is a Senate. Federalism.

[QuestionMan]

Never heard of Evan McMullin until you mentioned him.

[Spiorad_Aisce]

It was just luck of the draw that I caught the headlines before writing the take - I watch CNN a lot, I suppose when you are trying to fill a 24 hour news channel, you cover everything that comes up no matter how small.

[jacquesvol]

A good take but some possibilities are a tad far fetched.

[Spiorad_Aisce]

Ah yes the first part was just a flight of fancy - I was waiting for the contest to start and the take was meant to be about the "Turnout Election", the predictions were figments of my imagination, the only two realistic ones were the turnout examples in the Donald winning column and the Hillary winning column.

[Benk111]

If a candidate drops out before the election than the party officials will nominate the candidate of their choosing even if it's at the 11th hour.

[Spiorad_Aisce]

From coverage (I am not 100%) - It seemed to be difficult after early September maybe they meant logistically to mount an effective name recognition campaign - The "Dump Trump" seemed to be under pressure to organise a mini convention to re select a Republican candidate if Donald Trump pulled out before September according to the stories floated early August.

[Anonymous]

Great take! I agree with you on majority of points.

[Spiorad_Aisce]

Thanks for taking time to read it

[Anonymous]

This is a great take. I really don't want Trump to win. I'm sick and tired of seeing polls on here that ask "Hilary or Trump." The title of this take is a good response to that type of question poll lol.

[diegoD]

Hillary is a little worse tha ntrump, see her war record , research her war record and foreign policy, its a disaster, she could start a war with iran.

[Anonymous]

I think I'm in love sexually with Jeb bush. What do I do?

[CorrectGirl]

1. Call this number 1-800-jeb-bush
2. Tell him you wanna lick his balls

[Opinion Owner]

@CorrectGirl I tried that already I also called his wife and son and brother I'm really lost

[CorrectGirl]

Well tell him that you'll build a wall.
So that he would pay attention then hop on his erect penis , and throw his mexican wife over the border. Now you got a free kid and jeb bush.

[Opinion Owner]

@CorrectGirl holy shit ur a genius. I'm gonna go change my name to bush tomorrow. And my kids even gonna be named George bush how cool is that?

[CorrectGirl]

Thats amazing, I hope you get a dog and neuter it. Love you babe xxxxxx 😍😍😘😘😘😋😋😋😚😚

[Opinion Owner]

@CorrectGirl love you too pretty girl 💕💕💕😘😘😘

[QuestionMan]

@CorrectGirl That was priceless

[FakeName123]

Have a brother-brother threesome.

[diegoD]

troll.

[CorrectGirl]

@QuestionMan 😉😉😉😉😉

[The_real_me]

Gary Johnson 2k16 :D

[Spiorad_Aisce]

You never know

[The_real_me]

Here is the deal.

If we do a small percentage of what Trump says, we will be criminal country. He is just totally unfit to be president. He is like a 5 year old, but you know racist and all that. He is missinformed, but still says the first thing that comes to mind. He does not have any politic experience. He is called a bs artist. And his slogan sucks cuz United States have never being better. People thinking that the older days were better is a complete fallacy.

Really, I am not sure he wants to be president. He was asked directly if he wanted to be win and he just bs the question as usual. He just had to say yes of course; I am here to be president.

[The_real_me]

On the other hand Hillary, it is said that 2/3 of the voters do not trust her. There is nothing confirmed about her cuz she would be in jail otherwise, but there is a lot of shady things surrounding her. She promises everything to everybody. Just looking at her, I get a feeling that she is fake, like there is a person that i dont know the intentions hiding behind.

She is a continuation of what Obama was doing. Obama needed a bigger gobernment back in 2008 cuz we were on a crisis, but that is no longer the case.

Really, I think she wants power.

It is divided between somebody without remotely the capabilities of being president and one with the capabilities and the experience but with likely shady background, strategies, and intentions.

[The_real_me]

Regardless, I dont think Hilary has any ill intentions for the country. She likely has selfish intentions. I hope I am right. If both get their ways, Hillary would be less harmful. However, I dont think Trump would get his way. Trump is just not as smart. He is smart, but not like Hillary or Obama. He lacks political experience, and he lacks support even from the republicans. The president is not a dictator. He needs the legislative and juditial branches, so I dont see him spending tax payer money on a wall. Hillary would get her way cuz she is smart and has tons of experience.

Since nothing is sure, we are playing the russian rulette with these two. So read my original coment.

Look up Gary Johnson and hear him talk in an interview. If you want put an interview of Trump snd one of Hillary. Sadly, regardless of your political views, even if Gary Johnson's political views are opposed to yours, he is our best candidate by elimination. this is something i say. He does not talk like that

[Spiorad_Aisce]

That is the baffling thing for me that somehow the two favourites for the job got through the primaries with such high unfavourability ratings in the general electorate - It is screaming our for a 3rd party candidate but the electoral process is not built that way - If Gary Johnson doesn't get the 15% (unlikely) in the opinion polls, he will not be in debates and will slip further under the radar.

[The_real_me]

If he does not get into the debates we are definitely stuck with either Hillary or Trump. However, if there is a year in which we have a chance of a third party, it is this one. He got 12% on the last one. I believe that if he gets in the debates, he will win.

Over 50% of Trump and Hillary supporters vote for them because they dont want the other to win. I believe that if they see a possible 3rd candidate, a big part of them will vote for Johnson. It just have to be likely that a vote for him won't be a wasted vote, and I think him being on the debates will do just that.

[Maazin]

Trump will win. Fml

[Spiorad_Aisce]

There will probably still be a lot of twists and turns - At the moment I can't call it, I just get the feeling it will be really tight.

[Maazin]

Well, as long as someone doesn't rig the exercise.

[CorrectGirl]

Hillary is a man

[diegoD]

how so?

[CorrectGirl]

@diegoD I mean... Look at her face