On Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020, the United States of America(USA) will hold the 2020 Presidential Election, making this the 59th Presidential Election in the history of the USA. While there are several political parties which run for president every four years, the only two viable options are the Republican Incumbent Donald Trump, and the Democratic Candidate, and former Vice President Joe Biden. The USA hasn't elected a Third-Party Candidate since the 1848 Presidential Election, when Zachary Taylor of the Whig Party won the election, making this country essentially a two-party system. Virtually all voting contests have began voting early, and over 90 million votes have been cast for the 2020 Presidential Election as of October 31st, 2020.
If you're not familiar with the presidential election process in the USA, buckle up, because you're in for a ride. I'm not going to thoroughly explain how the process works, but to put it in a nutshell, we don't elect presidents via Popular Vote. We use an Electoral College System, where 538 Electoral Votes are up for grabs, and the candidate/incumbent needs to win at least 270 Electoral Votes will win the election. If you want to read precisely how the presidential election process works out, check it out here.
With that being said, there are 54 voting contests that will decide the 2020 Presidential Election. There are 50 states in the USA, and 48 of them will allocate Electoral Votes via Popular Vote of the state combined as a whole. 2 states(Maine, and Nebraska) will allocate their Electoral Votes based on Congressional Districts: 3 districts in Nebraska, and 2 districts in Maine, and finally, the capital of the USA, Washington, District of Columbia, will allocate Electoral Votes on its own. For this take, I will begin ranking the voting contests from the most significant to the presidential race to the least significant to the presidential race. What is my methodology for this ranking? Check it out below.
-Electoral Vote Total: This is the most obvious, and straightforward way to determine how significant a voting contest is in the Presidential Election. It's a simple as this-the more Electoral Votes a state has, the more significant a state is from a numerical standpoint. This is basic math. However, due to other circumstances, we can't rely on Electoral Vote Totals alone.
-Vote Projections: There are two main ways we determine how we thinking a voting contest will vote: 1. Voting history, and 2. Polling. Since 2020 began, we have been chronically polling several states, and we look at the average of the polls to determine how a state will vote, and how much of an impact it will have on the presidential race. Also, we look at voting history. For instance, if polling shows a state is slightly favoring Biden, but we know the history of that state tends to be Republican, then we'll give the edge for Trump winning that state during this election. You won't see much data, or predictions on states that are overwhelmingly for Biden/Trump, because the end result is virtually expected in the first place.
-Campaigning Locations: Presidential Candidates tend to have a good idea of which states, and districts to campaign in, or not. Biden, and Trump have been campaigning in key states(and key areas in these days) because they know those will help determine the election.
Now that this is out of the way, let's get this ranking started. For this part, it will be the least important 20 voting contests.
54. The 3rd Congressional District in Nebraska
Electoral Votes: 1
Prediction: Donald Trump has a 99.9 percent chance of winning this district.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-76%, Hillary Clinton-23%, Other-1%
The 3rd Congressional District mainly encompasses the western portion of the state of Nebraska, which covers most of the rural areas of the state, and is heavily Republican. The district has been voting separately from the rest of the state since the 1992 Presidential Election, and has never supported a Democratic Presidential Candidate, making it the most recently added voting contest in the Presidential Election. Given the predictability of the district, lack of campaigning, and the fact this contest only has one Electoral Vote, this contest wins the prize for the least significant voting contest in the entire 2020 Presidential Election. I project Trump wins in 72-27 margins against Biden.
53. The 1st Congressional District in Maine
Electoral Votes: 1
Prediction: Joe Biden has a 97 percent chance of winning this district.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-20%, Hillary Clinton-58%, Other-2%
Beginning in the 1972 Presidential Election, the congressional districts of Maine began voting as their own separate entities from Maine, and at first this district leaned conservative, but hasn't voted for a Republican since the 1984 Presidential Election. It encompasses the southern portion of Maine, which includes liberal coastal towns, and gives a New York City, and Boston, Massachusetts vibe. Given this, the district is predictably heavily Democratic, and it's only worth one Electoral Vote. Trump has virtually no chance of flipping it, so it's best to just move on. I predict Biden wins in 60-39 margins.
52. Washington, District of Columbia(D.C.)
Electoral Votes: 3
Prediction: Joe Biden has a 99.9 percent chance of winning the capital.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-4%, Hillary Clinton-91%, Other-5%
Yes, you read that correctly-the city that Trump currently lives in voted for a higher percentage of Third-Party candidates in the 2016 Presidential Election than it did for Trump himself. Ouch! This isn't surprising, as D.C. is one of two voting contests to vote for the same political party for every election it has voted in. D.C. holds holds the record for the most consecutive Presidential Elections for voting for the same political party. It's also only worth three Electoral Votes. I'll say the capital city is slightly more valuable than the previous two Congressional Districts, but there is a better chance we'll eradicate the COVID-19 Virus by November 3rd, 2020, than Trump has of winning this voting contest on that day. I'll predict Biden wins this contest in 91-8 margins against Trump.
51. The 1st Congressional District in Nebraska
Electoral Votes: 1
Prediction: Donald Trump has a 96 percent chance of winning the district
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-62%, Hillary Clinton-37%, Other-1%
Let's just get this out of the way: For the most part, Nebraska is insignificant for the election as a whole, and the 1st Congressional District is no exception. This district encompasses the eastern portion of the state, and has a mix of suburban, rural, and even some urban areas. The only reason I have this ranked above D.C.(and the other two districts) is because there is a slim chance Biden can get a massive turnout from the capital of the state, Lincoln, to push him over the edge, but don't bank on it. I'll predict Trump wins this contest in 55-44 margins against Biden.
50. Wyoming
Electoral Votes: 3
Prediction: Donald Trump has a 99 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-67%, Hillary Clinton-22%, Other-11%
Wyoming is far from the most insignificant voting contest, but I think it's clearly the most insignificant state in the 2020 Presidential Election. Wyoming is tied with eight other voting contests for the longest streak of consecutive elections for voting for a Republican Candidate(and same party of a Presidential Candidate in general), with now 13 consecutive Presidential Elections(the last time it voted for a Democratic Candidate....it voted for Lyndon B. Johnson, so really, it didn't.). It's a predominately white, and rural state, and they rank gun ownership as one of their top issues. Include the fact it's the state tied with six other states for the least number of Electoral Votes, this state is widely insignificant. I predict Trump wins in 66-31 margins against Biden.
49. Hawaii
Electoral Votes: 4
Prediction: Joe Biden has a 99 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-30%, Hillary Clinton-63%, Other-7%
Since Hawaii's first Presidential Election in 1960, it has only voted for a Republican candidate twice. It's also the only state in the USA where a majority of its population is non-Caucasian. In other words, it's so heavily Democratic, there is no point in Biden, or Trump campaigning there. It's the Democratic version of Wyoming, except it does offer one more Electoral Vote. I'll predict Biden wins in 67-32 margins against Trump.
48. Vermont
Electoral Votes: 3
Prediction: Joe Biden has a 99 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-30%, Hillary Clinton-56%, Other-14%
Vermont is an oddball state in the USA Election. It's virtually tied with Maine as the state with the highest percentage of Caucasian people, it loves its guns, and is plastered with rural areas. For whatever reason, it's very liberal, and solidly votes Democratic in nearly every election. Then again, it's still full off all those white country-folk. Who knows? Well, I know. It will be Biden winning this state on Election Day. I'll predict Biden wins in 67-31 margins on Election Day.
47. West Virginia
Electoral Votes: 5
Prediction: Donald Trump has a 99 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-69%, Hillary Clinton-26%, Other-5%
I've been to West Virginia, and it's actually beautiful. Contrary to what people think, it's not a Third-World Country-they just think, and act as if they are one. In all seriousness, the odds of Biden winning this state are the same odds of coal not being one of their top issues. On top of this, it's not worth many Electoral Votes, and it's one of the whitest states in the country, so this should be a no-brainer when Trump wins this state on Election Day. I predict Trump wins in 64-34 margins against Biden.
46. Oklahoma
Electoral Votes: 7
Prediction: Donald Trump has a 99 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-65%, Hillary Clinton-29%, Other-6%
Oklahoma is tied with Wyoming, and six other states as the state with the most consecutive elections voting for a Republican Presidential Candidate, and 2020 won't be an exception. While it's worth a little more votes than the previous voting contests on this list, it's also widely insignificant. Maybe, just maybe, Biden can get a rampant turnout among Native American Voters in the state, but even then, his odds of winning this state look all, but dashed. I'll predict Trump wins in 67-37 margins against Biden.
45. North Dakota
Electoral Votes: 3
Prediction: Donald Trump has a 98 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-63%, Hillary Clinton-27%, Other-10%
North Dakota may have some ethnic diversity within the Native American Reservations, but it's mainly a solidly white state with a big influence on big business, and guns, so neither candidate bothers campaigning there, given it's almost guaranteed to vote for Donald Trump. Perhaps Biden can make a comeback with cities like Fargo? We'll have to wait, and see....see when Trump wins in a landslide. I predict Trump wins in 60-38 margins against Biden.
44. South Dakota
Electoral Votes: 3
Prediction: Donald Trump has a 95 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-61%, Hillary Clinton-32%, Other-7%
Most people are familiar that the states of Virginia, and West Virginia are two completely different worlds. There are also big differences between North Carolina, and South Carolina. However, North Dakota, and South Dakota may as well be twinsies. The only reason I rank South Dakota slightly more significant than North Dakota is because it's slightly less likely to vote for Trump, and it's slightly more ethnically diverse than North Dakota. I'll predict Trump wins in 58-41 margins against Biden.
43. Idaho
Electoral Votes: 4
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-59%, Hillary Clinton-27%, Other-14%
Prediction: Donald Trump has a 99 percent chance of winning the state.
Listening to the song "Idaho" by Gorillaz on Election Night will be more enlightening than how important the state of Idaho is for the election. What else is there to say? It's a predominately white, and rural farm state, mixed with some disenfranchised voters who solely vote third-party. This is one of the states tied with the most consecutive elections voting for a Republican Candidate as well. Odds are, neither candidate will ever campaign here either. It's only slither of hope for making it more competitor is if a Washington, or Oregon bordering city influences the overall population. I'll predict Trump wins in 60-38 margins against Biden.
42. Rhode Island
Electoral Votes: 4
Prediction: Joe Biden has an 99 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-38%, Hillary Clinton-54%, Other-8%
Little Rhody may be the smallest state via land mass, and may not even be an island, but it is a little more significant than many other states. With that being said, it's monolithic population, and heavy reliance on Democrats, it's almost bound to vote for Biden. I'll predict Biden wins in 63-36 margins against Trump.
41. Arkansas
Electoral Votes: 6
Prediction: Donald Trump has an 85 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-60%, Hillary Clinton-34%, Other-6%
In recent years, the Southeast portion of the USA has seen a bit of a "blue-wave", meaning it's gradually becoming more Democratic, which is surprising given this is the Confederate South. However, Arkansas is still clinging to its own root. Gone are the days of the Clinton voters who would tip this state over the edge. Given its southern roots, it's projected to vote heavily Republican again, but if the major cities can get an African-American turnout, it could shake things up a bit. I'll predict Trump wins in 61-38 margins against Biden.
40. Delaware
Electoral Votes: 3
Prediction: Joe Biden has a 99 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-42%, Hillary Clinton-56%, Other-2%
Delaware was Joe Biden's Senate State, and they are a state with a large percentage of African-Americans. Still, even then, there is some midwest influence in the state, and a touch of Conservatism. Either way, it's quite insignificant. I'll predict Biden wins in 62-37 margins against Trump.
39. Connecticut
Electoral Votes: 7
Prediction: Joe Biden has a 99 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-41%, Hillary Clinton-55%, Other-4%
Connecticut is the epitome of a Limousine Liberal state, which has been hit hard by the economy, and votes heavily Democratic nearly every Presidential Election. It is somewhat significant via Electoral Votes, and it's worth mentioning there has been a slight red wave move in, but it's not going to change much, even if there were to be a bizarre surprise flip this election season. I'll predict Biden wins in 61-38 margins against Trump.
38. Maryland
Electoral Votes: 10
Prediction: Joe Biden has an 99 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-34%, Hillary Clinton-60%, Other-6%
Maryland is another predictable state. It has the Limousine Liberals, and the large percentage of African-American voters which should easily put Biden in a comfortable spot to win in a landslide. However, it is quite significant in Electoral Vote totals, so there is that factor too. I'll predict Biden wins in 64-34 margins against Trump.
37. Massachusetts
Electoral Votes: 11
Prediction: Joe Biden has an 99 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-33%, Hillary Clinton-61%, Other-6%
Massachusetts has some similarities to Maryland: It's very liberal, encompasses the Limousine Liberals, and even has the highly educated liberals. It is much more white, and is even somewhat conservative on the social issues, but let's not pretend this state will be too climatic on Election Night. I'll predict Biden wins in 67-32 margins.
36. Alabama
Electoral Votes: 9
Prediction: Donald Trump has an 98 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-62%, Hillary Clinton-34%, Other-4%
Alabama is another deep-south state that will never seemingly forget its roots. While it is becoming a little more liberal in recent years, and does have a significant African-American population, the southern whites, wealthy whites, and the overall Republican tone on guns should make this an easy Trump victory. I'll predict Trump wins in 59-40 margins against Biden.
35. New York
Electoral Votes: 29
Prediction: Joe Biden has an 99 percent chance of winning the state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-37%, Hillary Clinton-59%, Other-4%
New York is a perplexing case. On one hand, there are a lot of rural white areas in Upstate New York, and it's still the home state of Donald Trump. On the other hand, New York City is one of the world's largest, and most diverse cities, and New York votes heavily Democratic every single election. However, it's the most significant of the least significant states, even if we're confident Biden will win in a blowout. Why? Because of its 29 whopping Electoral Votes. I'll predict Biden wins in 64-35 margins.
This wraps up the first part of this three-part series! Below is a map of my series so far. The darkest blue voting contests have an 85-99 percent chance of voting for Joe Biden, and the dark red voting contests have an 86-99 percent chance of voting for Joe Biden. The brown states in this particular map have yet to be determined in my series. I will update it as I go along, so stay tuned.
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