Breaking Down the 2022 United States of America Midterm Elections

[EnglishArtsteacher]

The 2022 United States of America(USA) Midterm Election is coming up on November 8th, 2022. On this day, all 50 states of the USA will vote on various issues, governorship races, senate races, and House of Representative(HoR) races. For this myTake, I'm going to ignore the governorship races going on in the country since they don't impact either chamber of the U.S. Congress.

Right now, the Senate Makeup is as follows: 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 2 independent senators. The two independent senators, Vermont's Bernie Sanders, and Maine's Angus King Jr., consistently caucus with Democrats, so for the sake of argument, the Democrats' total is essentially raised to 50. Since it's currently a 50/50 Senate, the USA's Vice President(Democrat Kamala Harris) is the tie-breaking vote, so there is a very narrow majority senate in the Democrats' favor right now. Without at least 60 votes in senate, the opposing party can filibuster any decision the majority party makes.

Another note: I'm not going to get into how complicated the HoR races are. Due to gerrymandering, and redistricting around the USA, it's way too complicated to put into a myTake of how those races will go. Rest assured, the Republican Party(also known as the Grand Old Party(GOP), is heavily favored to take the HoR away from the Democratic Party, so my prediction is, the Republicans will win the House.

Instead, I'm going to dive into this looking at all of the Senate races. For this election, there are 21 Republican seats, and 14 Democratic seats up for election.

Alabama-Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

2022 Senate Race: Katie Britt(R) vs. Will Boyd(D). Alabama is a solidly red state, and it won't be changing soon. Britt should easily win this election.

Alaska-Voted for Donald Trump in 2020

2022 Senate Race: Lisa Murkowski(R) vs. Kelly Tshibaka(R) vs. Patricia Chesbro(D) A unique situation(two Republicans nominated), and not surprising, since Alaska has only voted for a Democratic president one time in its history. I say Murkowski takes it, but it will be a close battle with Tshibaka. Either way, a Republican is winning it.

Arizona-Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

2022 Senate Race: Mark Kelly(D) vs. Blake Masters(R). Arizona used to be a solidly red state, and ever since 2010s, it has transitioned into a swing-state. In finally went blue in 2020, and is now arguably the most competitive state in the country. I'm going to take a stab, and say Kelly wins.

Arkansas-Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

2022 Senate Race: John Boozman(R) vs. Natalie James(D). Arkansas is a solidly red state, and Boozman should easily win this race.

California-Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

2022 Senate Race: Alex Padilla(D) vs. Mark Meuser(R). California is the most populated state in the USA, and arguably the most liberal state in the USA. This solidly blue state should stay blue by voting for Padilla.

Colorado-Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Michael Bennet(D) vs. Joe O’Dea(R). There was a time when Colorado was a swing-state, but that faded in the back of the window sometime around 2008. These days, it's a blue state, and it should vote blue again, so Bennet wins.

Connecticut-Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Richard Blumenthal(D) vs. Leora Levy(R). Connecticut, much like the rest of the New England region, is solidly blue. This should be an easy Blumenthal win.

Delaware-Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

There are no Senate races in Delaware this year. Rest assured, Joe Biden’s Senate State is solidly blue.

Florida-Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: Marco Rubio(R) vs. Val Demings(D). If there were two choices: Choice A(getting punched in the face), or Choice B(a pizza party), Florida would vote to get punched in the face over the pizza party by a 51 to 49 percent margin. For this year, I see Rubio inching out a victory over Demings.

Georgia-Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Herschel Junior Walker(R) vs. Raphael Warnock(D). Yes, that's the same Herschel Walker that played in the National Football League(NFL) for twelve seasons. Anyway, Georgia shocked the world by voting for Biden in 2020, and this is now arguably the most important swing-state in the entire election. It's going to be a nail-biter, but I'm predicting that Warnock will barely win this election(there will probably be recounts for this one).

Hawaii-Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Brian Schatz(D) vs. Bob McDermott(R). Hawaii has only voted for one Republican candidate for president ever. That is all. Schatz wins in a blowout.

Idaho-Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: Mike Crapo(R) vs. David Roth(D). Mike is full of crap, and no, that's not the singer of Van Halen running against him. Idaho is solidly red, so Crapo wins(I'm just having fun here).

Illinois-Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Tammy Duckworth(D) vs. Kathy Salvi(R). It's a battle of the XY Chromosomes! Thanks to Chicago, Illinois, and Springfield, Illinois, Illinois is not voting red anytime soon. Duckworth is winning this easily.

Indiana-Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: Todd Young(R) vs. Thomas McDermott(D). The longer Earth exists, the more I'm amazed that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election. As someone who lives near the Indiana border, the odds of Young losing are the same odds that Indiana goes without a meth lab being built for the rest of the year.

Iowa-Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: Chuck Grassley(R) vs. Michael Franken(D). (Refer to my explanation for Indiana as to why Grassley will win).

Kansas-Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: Jerry Moran(R) vs. Mark Holland(D). Kansas showed up back in August to shut down a law that would ban all abortions. Interestingly enough, they will still show up this week, and vote for Moran.

Kentucky-Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: Rand Paul(R) vs. Charles Booker(D). As someone who lives near the border of Kentucky, I just have to say two things(other than the fact Paul will easily win this race): 1. Rand Paul is not a "Libertarian", as much as the rednecks in 'tucky claim he is, and...2. Charles Booker is not Cory Booker, as much as as the rednecks in 'tucky claim he is.

Louisiana-Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: John Kennedy(R) vs. the following Democrats: David Graham, Luke Mixon, Gary Chambers, Syrita Steib, and Salvador Rodriguez. The John Kennedy in this timeline turned into a Republican(it makes me wonder what would have happened if JFK was never assassinated), and there are way too many Democratic nominees to split the votes here. Kennedy wins(in this lifetime), thanks to to piss-poor strategy by Louisiana Democrats.

Maine: With the exception of one district, Joe Biden won this state overall in 2020.

There are no Senate Races in this election. With the exception of District 2 in Maine, the state as a whole is solidly blue.

Maryland: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Chris Van Hollen(D) vs. Chris Chaffee(R). Maryland is ultra-blue, and it's not just because of the "scary" city of Baltimore. Hollen will easily win.

Massachusetts: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. Either way, it's ultra-blue.

Michigan: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election, which is a shame, since it's such an important swing-state.

Minnesota: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. Its legacy after that Summer of 2020 has ensured this will be a blue state for awhile.

Mississippi: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. This state is red(for now), but due to its decreasing white population, that could change soon.

Missouri: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: Eric Schmitt(R) vs. Trudy Valentine(D). Gone are the days of Missouri being a swing-state. These days, it might as well be a red state. Schmitt will win(not Schmidt by the way).

Montana: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. The state is full of cowboys who vote Republican.

Nebraska: With the exception of one district, Donald Trump won Nebraska overall in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. District 2 is the lone blue bubble in this sea of red.

Nevada: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Adam Laxalt(R) vs. Catherine Maso(D). Nevada hasn't been a viable swing-state in presidential elections for a decade now, but when it comes to Senate races, that's a different story. I'm going to give the slight edge to Maso here, but this should be a state where recounts are rampant because it's going to be arguably the closest state in the entire election.

New Hampshire: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Maggie Hassan(D) vs. Donald Bolduc(R). New Hampshire is another state on the "use-ta-be-swing-state-but-now-blue" list. There is no reason why Hassan shouldn't easily win.

New Jersey: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. New Jersey, similar to the other "New" states, is blue at this point.

New Mexico: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. This was a swing-state until Breaking Bad premiered, and thanks to Walt White, and its influence, it's now a blue state.

New York: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Charles Schumer(D) vs. Joe Pinion(R). The Empire State Strikes Back, with an easy Schumer victory.

North Carolina: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: Tedd Budd(R) vs. Cheri Beasley(D). North Carolina is a former southern red state that is now a swing-state. Unfortunately for Beasley, it's just a little too red to not vote for Budd.

North Dakota: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: Joe Hoeven(R) vs. Katrina Christiansen(D). North Dakota may very well be the most forgotten, and irrelevant state in the USA. If one thing is certain, though, it will continue to vote red, giving Hoeven an easy victory.

Ohio: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: J.D. Vance(R) vs. Tim Ryan(D). I've lived in Ohio my entire life, and I'll be damned if anyone refers to us as a "swing-state" anymore. We're the new Missouri. Technically, we're still close enough to be a battleground state, but expect Vance to be victorious by tomorrow night.

Oklahoma: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: James Lankford(R) vs. Madison Horn(D). Here is an interesting fact about Oklahoma: The last time an Oklahoma County voted for at least a plurality for a Democratic Presidential Candidate was in the year 2000. Do I need to say more as to why I think Lankford will win this state?

Oregon: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Ron Wyden(D) vs. Joe Rae Perkins(R). Oregon is odd for a blue state. It's full of white rural rednecks, has a deep history of bigotry, and is very gun-friendly. With that being said, thanks to Portland, and Eugene, it will give Wyden a comfortable victory.

Pennsylvania: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Dr. Mehmet Oz(R) vs. John Fetterman(D). The host of the TV Show Dr. Oz is taking on a guy who looks like the actor Michael Berryman. If the fact a television host with no political experience running for U.S. Senate isn't weird enough, it just happens to be in arguably the most important swing-state in the country, Pennsylvania. Similar to 2020, I think it will be extremely close, and there will be recounts(since Pennsylvania is the new Ohio), but I think Fetterman will narrowly win the state.

Rhode Island: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. The smallest state via square miles is one of the biggest blue states in the country.

South Carolina: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: Tim Scott(R) vs. Krystle Matthews(D). South Carolina is more conservative than its cousin up north, so Scott should win this state with relative ease.

South Dakota: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: John Thune(R) vs. Brian Bengs(D). Literally every state named after a directional location votes Republican. Enjoy your easy victory, Thune.

Tennessee: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. As someone who has been all over Tennessee, I don't see it voting blue anytime soon, regardless of what Dolly Parton has to say.

Texas: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. Don't mess with the red state of Texas.

Utah: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Senate Race: Mike Lee(R) vs. Evan McMullin(I) vs. several other candidates. Utah is the only state with a Senate race in this election that does not have one of the major parties running. It doesn't matter anyway, because the odds of Lee losing this election are the same odds that most Utah denounces the Church of the Ladder Day Saints.

Vermont: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Peter Welch(D) vs. Gerald Malloy(R). Welch will easily win this ultra-blue state, but I wonder how many Bernie Bros still want Bernie Sanders to run for president in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Virginia: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. At the start of the 21st Century, Virginia was one of the most red states in the country, and now, it's a moderately blue state. What a shift!

Washington: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Patty Murray(D) vs. Tiffany Smiley(R). Not to be confused with the District of Columbia, but it doesn't matter anyway, because Washington State has been solidly blue for a long time now. Long live, Murray!

West Virginia: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. If they don't elect a Republican, they would just elect a DINO anyway.

Wisconsin: Voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Senate Race: Ron Johnson(R) vs. Mandela Barnes(D). Wisconsin is weird. It votes blue in nearly all elections, but since it votes blue in razor-thin margins, it's always a tossup. I think Barnes barely pulls this one off.

Wyoming: Voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

There are no Senate races in this election. What political party do you think Wyoming votes for?

Overall Prediction Totals: Republicans will take over the Senate, with 51 seats to the Democrats' 49 seats(including the two independent senators).

Overall, I predict Republicans win both chambers.

What do you all think?

[monorprise]

I am of course am actually more interested in the Govern races. They are going to make a big difference, the Federal Goverment will be largely crippled either way.

[TroyDT2]

If the Republicans do not win the House it will be a major shocker. The Senate races are too volatile this year. I can see anything from 52-48 Democrat to 54-46 GOP.